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2012/12/30

High Supply

Everything  we've been telling you continues to materialize...
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High Supply
By Nick Hodge | Sunday, December 30th, 2012
Nick Hodge

Editor's Note: This article was originally published at the beginning of this year. It has been slightly modified, and is still as relevant as ever. Enjoy.


Everything we've been telling you continues to materialize.

There's a North American oil and gas renaissance under way...

Foreign firms have invested more than $6 billion here since December, and the frenzy shows no signs of slowing down.

PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) paid over $1 billion for a 20% stake in Shell's (NYSE: RDS) Canadian Groundbirch natural gas project. Located in British Columbia, Shell says the project can deliver 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas equivalents (bcfe) per day and will have a lifespan of 40 years.

CNOOC (NYSE: CEO) paid $2.04 billion to buy Opti Canada, giving China its second foothold in Canada's oil sands.

China Petroleum & Chemical, or Sinopec (NYSE: SNP), paid $2.2 billion for Daylight Energy's assets.

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High Supply

These abundant new finds of shale oil and gas have given temporary reprieve to the supply/demand picture.

In 2012, OPEC oil production hit a three-year high. It produced 30.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2011 and 30.9 million bpd in January — both above the 30 million bpd target agreed upon.

They aren't the only ones increasing production...

The Energy Information Administration says total crude and liquid fuels production is expected to grow by 1.4 million bpd this year. OPEC will be responsible for 900,000 bpd of that growth, but the rest will come from the rest of the world, presumably from Canada and the U.S.

What's more, demand is supposed to grow by only 1.3 million bpd this year, meaning we're in for a short-term supply glut.

Same goes for natural gas, where plentiful shale supplies have forced prices down below $2.50 per thousand cubic feet (tcf) — the lowest prices in a decade. (They're now slightly higher at $3.20, but still historically low.)

This means investor gains are more likely to come from drillers and service companies than from the actual commodities themselves.

We've identified companies you should be looking at if you want to profit from this continued boom.

And we've discussed plenty of other ways to play it as well — some of which you can find in the selection of this week's coverage, below.

Call it like you see it,

Nick Hodge Signature

Nick Hodge
for Energy and Capital

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