| | 2007 vs. Today | | 
Just last week the market was near its all-time highs, the Dow being only a few points from its highest close of 2007.
I know that the markets are not rational and do not follow that line of thinking, but let’s play that game anyway. If the market is nearing 2007 highs, shouldn’t it follow that today’s economic news are as good as 2007’s? That would be reasonable, but the market just doesn’t work like that – especially when it is being rigged by the world’s central bankers.
How long can the following (close estimates) hold up?
Silver: Oct. 2007=$13, last week =$30
Gold: Oct 2007=$760, last week = $1,620
Reported Unemployment: Oct 2007 = 4.7%, today = 7.9%
Case-Shiller Home Index: Oct 2007 = 190.9, today = 144.9
New Home Sales: 2007 = 774K, 2012 = 367K
Housing Units Built: 2007 = 1,500K, 2012 = 651K
Fed Reserve Balance Sheet: Oct 2007 = $873B, today = $3.11T
Food Stamp Recipients: Dec 2007 = 28.7M, today = 48.2M
Federal Spending, Annual Rate: 2007 = $2.7T, today = $3.6T
Fed Tax Revenues, Annual: 2007 = $2.5T, today = $2.4T
Retail Gasoline Price: 2007=$2.84/gal, 2013 = $4.19/gal (Chicago)
Money Supply: Oct 2007 = $851.6B, today = $2.76 Trillion
Personal Bankruptcies: 2007 = 801K (75% up from 2006), 2012 = 1.25 million
Foreclosures: 2007 = 405k (40% up from 2006), 2012 = 742K
Although the market dipped a little last week, none of this seems to matter. As long as the Fed keeps printing and we all have “faith,” it will go up forever. What’s more, the sequester D-Day is this Friday and this time around it seems to not matter at all. Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts." | ---Larry Levin
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 | | Congratulations to JB in NC! Results: The Student of The Day today is JB inNC because of his risk management! What JB did was logged all of his trade signals that he had taken for months. In reviewing these documents he found that he was consistently making money in the morning and consistently giving it back in the afternoon. He then implemented great discipline by packing his things and walking away at noon!!! Every trader should keep a journal as this allows great insight!!! Nice job JB!!! | | NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial. |
| | Congratulations to Charles Moon: The Educator of The Day today is Charles Moon due to great management of his trade signals!!! What a feeling when your "worst case scenario" means a potential profit of $2,400.00! Definitely a winner! Let's see what the students think:
Charlie there is a lot to learn in here but I find it very interesting! I thought I had a broad knowledge but really I knew nothing, but that being said I can and will learn!
this has potential...
nice..
Glad to see you here. You're in good hands. :)
thank you charlie.... every time you go over it... it gets much easier
profitable
watched your videos last night Charlie wow!!! :) The videos were good by the way enjoyed them!
Hello! Great place to be, to learn and prosper.
Thank you..............big help.......... |
OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary ---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr
| Today was a painfully slow day with no data releases or major news stories to spur market interest. The cloud of uncertainty with regards to the political situation in Italy has seemed to disappear as Bersani is all but assured to win the office of Prime Minster. Outflows from the GLD hit $1B in January and have accelerated in February, taking the total outflows to $3.1B Year-to-date. The last time the GLD suffered outflows was mid-summer 2012, just ahead of a big rally in gold prices. Compare that with the $8.6B that flowed into equity funds last week. This was the 13th consecutive week of cash flows - the longest streak in 13 years. Are we setting up for a major market correction? We continue to monitor the historically low levels for the VIX complex index and should we confirm a correction in implied volatility, we will generate trade signals. The USDA released its official crop forecast for this year. They are expecting record crops to be harvested in corn and soybeans. Last year, much of the grain belt was ravished by severe drought conditions. Given the improved weather forecast this year, we would expect to generate a harvest of 14.53 billion bushels of corn and 3.41 billion bushels for soybeans. The extreme dry conditions last year generated crops of 10.78 billion bushels of corn and just over 3 billion bushels of soybeans. This report was strangely reminiscent of last year's report. How quickly things change. |
FOREX: Currency Spotlight ---Ed Moya
| | Brace yourself for trading this week, here are some of the key reasons why : the Vix is rising, the Fed might be more aggressive on tightening (but then again maybe it won't as we wait on Ben), Italians are voting on which leader they want to drive the reform agenda through, and the BOJ is expected to announce their future head governor. Also, last week ended with most traders unable to trade the pound short as the 4:30pm NY time marks the cutoff for several liquidity providers. In the U.S. the automatic spending cuts that are about to take place on March 1st could also derail the dollar’s gaining momentum. Traders should expect to be prepared to see heightened volatility especially during the overnight session. This evening, we may get a better sense of who will win the Italian elections. Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release Private Capital Expenditure, forecasts of the economic outlook for Australia and it is a report that the RBA will also use closely. Thursday night will focus on the Chinese Manufacturing PMI. The biggest evening story however, may happen during the middle of the week, when the BOJ is expected to announce that Haruhiko Kuroda will become the new head of the BOJ. After the FX market processes all of this data, the end result will be further easing for the U.K. and Japan. We may hear more dovish comments from Bernanke, so we will wait to hear what he says before positioning ourselves before then. A poor Private Cap report from Australia may also derail the optimistic spin that was put on Gov. Stephens and could drive the Aussie dollar lower. The euro will likely survive the elections and may see some complications regarding the reform agenda, but it may end up becoming rather attractive to most of the majors. |
STOCKS: Watch List ---Charles Moon
| After two days being down, the market of course rallied strong into the close to finish off the week. Usually we would have our rally the day after a losing session, but with the slew of bad economic data and news, it took one extra day this time around. Hard to see the market selling off with these rallies, but I feel coming into the Sequestration deadline the next few days we can really start to see more aggressive selling. I will say that specific levels will not only need to be broken, but they need to be slammed through and turned quickly into resistance. If that comes into play, then we will see the selling gain momentum and buyers giving up control.
Stocks had started selling early, but soon popped up into positive territory and extended their ranges up through out the day. The one Sector that is struggling as of late is the Agricultural Sector. Potash(POT) had a nice run the last couple of months, but the pressure to the downside has been on since their last earnings report. They had found strong support at a major technical level, but gapped open below on 2/20 and that is when the down slide really took off. This slide can still continue as weakness is apparent and support levels are collapsing. If you choose to go long in POT, it might be much more then a headache and stinky fertilizer you might have to deal with. Watch out below says the stock as it is dropping fast. It may turn around at the $37.00 mark, but if it breaks down there then look to the 52 week low for support.
Coming off this weekend with Italy having its elections taking place, hard to tell how the market will react. To get a early gauge or feel, look to the Asian markets and European markets to get an early indicator of things to come. Open Position: X Stocks to Watch: AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN PCLN BBRY FB CTXS BAC C GS CMI CAT NFLX WDC LULU LNKD DIS KORS FOSL X QCOM STZ NKE CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HLF |
FUTURES: Technical Data
| | Value Areas: ES 1511.75 / 1505.25
POC… 1505.75
YM 13970 / 13904
NQ 2733.00 / 2719.50 | NOTES FROM THE PIT
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| COMMODITIES: Play of the Day ---Patrick Assalone | The Export Sales report was not at all supportive of the market Friday
morning, since it stated weekly net sales for the 2012-13 crop year at
just 119,500 tonnes, whereas a figure in the 300,000-600,000 tonne
range was anticipated. For the rest of the day the market flushed
lower stopping at a High Volume Area of support. The point of control
has migrated lower signifying a trend change. We are not looking to
pick a bottom as the intermediate trend is now lower. View Video Here
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