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2013/05/30

Volker

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"Volker"

 
Paul-Volcker

Paul Volcker is a former Federal Reserve Chairman.  When Mr. Volcker was head of the Fed, there was still a free market and unfortunately for him, the so-called bond vigilantes were willing to stand up to the FOMC.  When they sold bonds, yields rose quickly and Paul Volcker got the blame. 

 Now, the bond vigilantes leave the former USA alone, because it has morphed into the centrally planned viper pit of the Too Big to Fail banks of Fraud Street that we know today.  In other words and other spending, we’re now the USSA.  Instead, bond vigilantes have been bouncing from one insolvent European nation to another. 

 What does the former Fed Chairman say about today’s market manipulations?  In a short phrase: “Good luck in that.”  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-29/volcker-cautions-federal-reserve-may-fall-short-.html

In the link above I was happy to read that Mr. Volcker agrees with me that the Fed’s dual mandate is a joke.  It doesn’t work.  He may not go as far as I do in saying that a dual mandate is a political directive that allows the Fed to do whatever it wants – whenever it wants – with the political cover of “well, we have a dual mandate…” but it’s close.

 “It’s fashionable to talk about a dual mandate, that policy should somehow be directed toward two objectives, of price stability and full employment,” Volcker told the Economic Club of New York. “Fashionable or not, I find that mandate both operationally confusing and ultimately illusory.”

 I agree.

 “Asked to do too much, for instance to accommodate misguided fiscal policies, to deal with structural imbalances, to square continuously the hypothetical circles of stability, growth and full employment, then it will inevitably fall short,” Volcker said. Those efforts cause it to lose “sight of its basic responsibility for price stability, a matter that is within the range of its influence.”

 Chairman MaoNanke, however, cares neither for basic price stability nor for someone else’s thoughts of what the range of the Fed’s influence should be.  After all, he *IS* the Chairman. He controls the world.

“The Federal Reserve, any central bank, should not be asked to do too much to undertake responsibilities that it cannot responsibly meet with its appropriately limited powers,” Volcker said. He said a central bank’s basic responsibility is for a “stable currency.”

“Credibility is an enormous asset,” Volcker said. “Once earned, it must not be frittered away by yielding to the notion that a little inflation right now is a good a thing, a good thing to release animal spirits and to pep up investment.”

“The implicit assumption behind that siren call must be that the inflation rate can be manipulated to reach economic objectives,” according to Volcker. “Up today, maybe a little more tomorrow and then pulled back on command. Good luck in that. All experience demonstrates that inflation, when fairly and deliberately started, is hard to control and reverse.”

Unfortunately the USSA, with the rest of the world, have embraced the silliness of the child-like Keynesian economists that refuse to believe that central planning has limits.  After all, they always want more spending whether it comes from Congress or the Fed.  

 A young man like Paul Volcker wouldn’t even get an interview with the Fed today.  The thoughts expressed above would be too radical because they are too “free market” based, and today we just want financial socialism.

 Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear “experts.”

---Larry Levin

 
 
Morning Market Stir
 

Morning Market Stir YouTube Link

In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Senior Market Analyst Alan Knuckman  provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates.


 
 
Student Of The Day
 

Congratulations to Pat Lemieux, Sheldon Pelovitz and Thomas Macchione

Congratulations to Pat, Sheldon and Thomas. All three are active participants in the Options Room and followed the KORS signal perfectly.
They entered  the trade on 5/23 and exited the trade on 5/29 for a total gross profit of $.65/contract (not including comissions). Great job to our winning trifecta!

 
NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial.

 
 
Market Advantage

 
   
OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary
---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) who's self-stated purpose is to "use its wealth of information on a broad range of topics to help governments foster prosperity and fight poverty through economic growth and financial stability" reduced their outlook for global economic growth today to 3.1% for this year and to 4% for 2014.  Their prior forecasts were for 3.4% and 4.2% respectively.  They predict that the U.S. will improve and Japan will rebound.  The lagging factor is the eurozone, which is in the midst of recession.  It also warned the "withdrawal of QE" by central banks could jar the global bond markets and further hinder the world economy.  In other developments, the seemingly one bright spot in the eurozone, Germany, had the number of people without a job rise more than expected by 21k to 2.96M total.  This is the biggest monthly increase in over four years.
 
Here's an interesting situation that we are monitoring.  It involves Federal prosecutors indicting the operators of a Costa Rica-based digital currency exchange called Liberty Reserve (LR) for facilitating the laundering of over $6B in cash.  We are not monitoring this because of anything to do with "virtual currencies" or their validity or anything like that.  What is interesting to note is that Liberty Reserve users were able to transfer money via some major companies like:  Western Union (WU), MoneyGram (MGI), Visa, (V), MasterCard (MA), American Express (AXP) and Citibank (C).  What is important to us is whether these companies were simply unaware, patsy conduits or something more nefarious like what happened with HSBC and their dealings with Iran, Mexican drug lords, Libya, Burma, etc.  If it is uncovered that any of these companies were indeed complicit, look out below.


 
 
 
FOREX: Currency Spotlight
---Ed Moya
 

As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 1% and the rate statement pretty much affirmed that no change in monetary policy was to be expected anytime soon.

The Canadian dollar rallied today mainly because we saw profit taking in the U.S. dollar.
The central bank may now say goodbye to Mr. Mark Carney, the hawk who is the only central banker in an advanced economy that appeared positioned to be raising rates.

Despite the slight improvement in growth and rise in inflation, Carney did not commit any future action for the BOC.  While trade remains weak in Canada, concerns are growing that falling commodity prices might not be done with.

Yesterday, Alcoa announced the shutdown of two production lines in Quebec.  If we continue to see commodity prices selling off, we may start to see a more dovish central bank.

Currently 1.04 is key resistance for USD/CAD, but if we see more signs of Canadian weakness a breakout towards 1.06 is not out of the question.    
 


 
 
STOCKS: Watch List
---Charles Moon
 

The Dow closed down over 106 points today, but finished well off the lows of the day. While the action was almost a mirror image of yesterday, the outcome was vastly different. As we had slid off the highs during yesterdays trading action, we bounced off the lows in a similar reaction today. With economic data to come out in the morning, we can see a continuation of today's action. Otherwise look for a fast rebound in the morning, with slower conditions later in the trading session.

 
Even with a sharp drop in the market, we saw the Financial Sector make a push higher today. Stocks such as Goldman Sachs(GS) and Prudential Financial Inc(PRU) make a nice push off the lows for a decent percentage gain today. Considering these stocks opened gap down and pressed lower, the recovery off these lows were both impressive and aggressive. I would look for the progression to go higher in both stocks, but I do see a brief sell off as some profit taking should come into play. Look for the pullback to enter if you are bullish in these stocks.
 
With trading conditions becoming more volatile, you must look short term as far as entering into the market. We are seeing early gains melt away quickly, as traders are getting whipsawed in choppy trading conditions. Be careful not to get drawn in during these unfavorable times, and look to capture the early morning movements to gain quick returns. Otherwise you can be trying to dig your way out of the hole you created throughout the entire day. That can be a recipe for disaster if you let human emotions get involved. Look to be more selective, and be aggressive only when the time calls for it. Open Position: MS, PRU Stocks to Watch: NTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN PCLN BBRY FB LVLT CHKP CTXS CSCO BAC C PRU WFC GS JPM MS CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE AIG LULU LNKD DIS KORS COH FOSL CROX STZ NKE UA CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HLF HOG YUM LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM TSL FSLR JASO


 
 
FUTURES: Technical Data  
 

 

ES 1650.00 / 1641.50 

 POC… 1646.75 

 YM 15311 / 15241 

 NQ 3001.00 / 2986.00

NOTES FROM THE PIT
Click Here To Read

 
 
COMMODITIES: Play of the Day
---Patrick Assalone
 

Crude Oil
Brent prices are also finding support from the escalating Syrian civil war, which is threatening to spill over the nation's borders and disrupt supply in the oil rich Middle East. A European arms ban was liftedon Monday, allowing the region send weapons to Syria. Based on our educational methodology, we are looking for reversal signals off the High Volume Area that spans from 93.13 up to 93.88. We could also have a break out signal down below 92.75


 
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