An Ignoble Experiment

2. RootMetrics: T-Mobile leapfrogs Sprint for No. 3 spot in overall network performance

Sprint (NYSE: S) made its first bold move under new CEO Marcelo Claure, introducing shared data plans that offer double the data of similarly-priced plans from Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T Mobility (NYSE: T). However, financial analysts said that while the new plans could put pressure on Sprint's rivals, they were not truly disruptive and were unlikely to catapult Sprint back to growth in the short term.

Click here for details on Sprint's new plans.

Under Sprint's new plans, called Family Share Pack and available starting Aug. 22, customers can buy a subsidized smartphone with a two-year contract and are charged $40 per month per line. If customers purchase their phones in installments with Sprint's Easy Pay upgrade program, the access charge for smartphones is $25 per month for plans with less than 20 GB of data, and $15 per month for plans with 20 GB or more. Mobile broadband devices cost $20 per month to add and tablets cost $10 per month. All of the plans come with unlimited voice and texting.

Sprint noted that families can get a plan of four smartphone lines with 20 GB of data for $160, compared to 10 GB of data for the same price at AT&T or Verizon.

Additionally, from Aug. 22 to Sept. 30, if customers bring their number and activate their plans on the Sprint Family Share Pack, Sprint will buy out their families' contracts with a Visa Prepaid Card worth up to $350, mimicking an offer from T-Mobile US (NYSE:TMUS), though T-Mobile's offer has no end date. Sprint is also waiving the data access charge for handsets, tablets and mobile broadband devices on 20 GB or higher data allowances for up to 10 lines through the end of 2015. However, there are several caveats to the offer. The switching offer will only be available at Sprint stores and Sprint Telesales. Customers must switch their number from another carrier to Sprint and must purchase their devices in monthly installments with Sprint Easy Pay.

Sprint is also offering a promotion from Aug. 22 to Sept. 30 that offers a family with up to 10 lines 20 GB of shared data for only $100 per month through the end of 2105, plus an extra 2 GB per line for up to 10 lines. Sprint noted that is $60 cheaper than AT&T and Verizon's plan for four lines, and more than double the data of similar plans from Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile.

The plans will essentially replace the Framily plans that Sprint introduced earlier this year. Sprint will continue to allow customers to add subscribers to their Framily plan, but Sprint will stop marketing the Framily plans.

Claure said in several interviews that the new plans would help Sprint get "back in the game" with wireless customers. "We did a lot of research with customers. Data use is growing exponentially; customers are getting angry at a bill that is larger than they expected," Claure told Bloomberg. "We decided to make it easy and double whatever is in the market. This is the best offer ever in the marketplace."

Claure also said Sprint would reveal new plans for individual subscribers later this week. However, family plans have become more competitive and carriers like to emphasize them because they are in general "stickier" and lead to lower churn, especially for postpaid customers.

A key issue for Sprint is that while it may be targeting heavy data users with the new plans, its network performance is not up to par with those of its peers, according to a new report from independent network testing firm RootMetrics. Sprint placed last among the four Tier 1 carriers in overall national performance, data performance, network speed and call performance. The company came in third on reliability and texting performance. Sprint is trying to remedy that through the completion of its 3G CDMA network upgrades as well as the rollout of Spark, its tri-band LTE service, which Sprint says delivers peak data speeds of 50-60 Mbps right now and will deliver 100 Mbps by the end of the year through two-carrier aggregation on its 2.5 GHz TD-LTE service. However, Spark is only available in 28 markets right now, though Sprint aims to cover 100 million POPs with Spark by the end of the year.

"While the data packages are attractive, we believe that they will have a limited market impact until Sprint has a more competitive network offering," New Street Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin wrote in a research note.

Others agreed: "However, it's unclear whether a 4-line AT&T or Verizon customer (to the extent that they exist) will move if they don't even use the 10 GB that is included in their current plan AND have concerns about Sprint's network," wrote BTIG analyst Walter Piecyk. "Being offered double the amount of data when the network is slower and doesn't work near your house is not a concept that is lost on the educated consumer."

Further, Sprint's competitors have recently taken steps to insulate themselves from any pricing changes. T-Mobile recently changed its family pricing, and under its new plans the first line costs $50 per month, the second line costs $30, lines 3-6 cost $10 each and lines 7-10 cost $20 each. And Verizon recently launched a new plan for individual subscribers that offers unlimited voice, texting and 2 GB of data for $60 per month, $30 cheaper than a similar plan on its shared data plans.

Analysts said Sprint's new plans might help the carrier, but won't cause much disruption in the market.

"The new plans are materially lower than Sprint's previous pricing, but they fall short of the shock-and-awe cuts that some had expected," MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett wrote in a research note. "Sprint's prices under Family Share Pack are now meaningfully lower than Verizon's or AT&T's at most usage levels, and they are dramatically lower than any of their competitors at very high usage levels. But they are still not quite as low as T-Mobile's at most data consumption levels, and, perhaps more importantly, their lowest prices are still not available to existing subscribers."

Chaplin added: "Given that this price cut was only a modest discount to where TMUS is, this move falls short of 'truly disruptive.' And while the marketing message of '$100 for 20 GB' is compelling when compared with AT&T's lead offer of $160 for 10 GB, the actual user experience may disappoint as Sprint catches up on network performance. As such, we continue to expect only a modest recovery for Sprint."

Meanwhile Credit Suisse analysts Joseph Mastrogiovanni and Michael Baresich wrote that AT&T could be the most insulated from Sprint competition because AT&T allowed customers to move to lower-cost Mobile Share Value plans when coupled with unsubsidized devices, which drove record-low postpaid churn in the second quarter.

"Additionally, competition from T-Mobile should have removed most of the low hanging fruit," they wrote. "T-Mobile has been the value leader over the last 12 months. While this positions it well against Sprint, it also implies that T-Mobile has a base that is attracted to value."

They noted Verizon could be at the highest risk because lower pricing via its Edge handset program was not extended to existing customers, and that historically customers who have switched between carriers have gone to another carrier with the same underlying technology, and Sprint and Verizon both share CDMA networks. However, they added that "mitigating factors for Verizon include its recently launched single line pricing that was extended to current customers and that its low hanging fruit has also been picked."

For more:
- see this release
- see this Re/code article
- see this WSJ article (sub. req.)
- see this Bloomberg article
- see this Reuters article

Related Articles:
T-Mobile's family plans now support up to 10 lines
Verizon undercuts AT&T with $60 plan for unlimited talk, text and 2 GB for individuals
Sprint's Claure reportedly plans 'very disruptive' pricing changes for next week
T-Mobile trumpets $100 family plan to undercut AT&T, Verizon and Sprint
Lowenstein's View: Memo to new Sprint CEO: How to turn things around
Sprint's Claure intends to cut costs, compete aggressively on price
Sprint CEO Claure takes the reins with great expectations - and challenges - ahead

This week's sponsor is Mobile Future Forward.

Golden Age of Mobile \| September 24, 2014 \| Seattle, WA Click here for more info!

By Phil Goldstein

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3. NAB sues FCC over 600 MHz incentive auction rules

T-Mobile US (NYSE:TMUS) surpassed Sprint (NYSE: S) as the No. 3 carrier in terms of overall network performance, according to a new report from network testing firm RootMetrics, which covered the first half of 2014. That marks a reversal from RootMetrics' last report, which covered the second half of 2013 and was released in early March.

Verizon took the lead in RootMetrics' report, but T-Mobile passed Sprint. Click here for the full PDF report.

As in RootMetrics' last report, Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) outpaced all of its competitors in terms of overall performance. Verizon also beat rival AT&T Mobility (NYSE: T) in terms of national network speeds, likely due to its rapid deployment of AWS spectrum for LTE services.

Verizon has deployed its AWS spectrum to augment capacity on its LTE network in most of the major cities across the country, and has said it will be done with its AWS overlay by the end of the year. RootMetrics CEO Bill Moore said Verizon's deployment of AWS "has had a material effect" on its performance. "I don't think anybody expected how fast they were going to go about deploying it," he said.

However, it was T-Mobile that showed the most movement in RootMetrics' "State of the Mobile Union" report. In the last report released in March T-Mobile had a total overall performance score of 64.3 out of 100. This time around, T-Mobile raised its total score to 71.5.

Verizon topped RootMetrics' overall performance charts with a score of 81.6, while AT&T came in second at 79.5. Sprint came in fourth with a score of 69.6. Verizon led RootMetrics' charts in terms of national network reliability, speed, data performance and call performance, with AT&T very close behind on many fronts. AT&T won for best texting performance, RootMetrics said.

Yet AT&T made "impressive" gains in network reliability. In the second half of 2013, Verizon was the clear leader on reliability, but the two networks were virtually dead-even in the new RootMetrics report. Verizon earned 112 wins in its Network Reliability Index across metro areas in the U.S., while AT&T won in 107 markets. The other carriers' networks weren't even close, though Sprint won reliability performance awards in three markets, its first awards in the category. That likely speaks to the lack of low-band spectrum both Sprint and T-Mobile have, something they hope to remedy through next year's incentive auction of 600 MHz broadcast TV spectrum.

RootMetrics testers drove more than 234,000 miles across the country, and tested performance while driving, at stationary outdoor locations, and at more than 6,400 indoor locations. In total, RootMetrics collected more than 5.6 million total samples.

T-Mobile has been working to build out its LTE network, which now covers 235 million POPs. T-Mobile currently has 15x15 MHz LTE deployments in 17 markets and expects to have 26 by year-end. Sprint, for its part, has been using a 5x5 MHz block of its 1900 MHz PCS spectrum for its main LTE deployment to date, covering 254 million POPs. But Sprint is working to build out its speedier Spark service, which combines LTE transmissions across 800 MHz, 1900 MHz and 2.5 GHz, and hopes to cover 100 million POPs with Spark this year.

In the RootMetrics report on the second half of 2013, T-Mobile finished last in five out of six categories, but in the latest report T-Mobile jumped over Sprint and finished in third place in four categories. While the separation between the erstwhile merger partners was small, T-Mobile clearly outperformed Sprint in the speed test. However, RootMetrics noted that via Sprint Spark, the carrier's tri-band LTE service, Sprint could regain an advantage in speed as that deployment gets rolled out through the rest of 2014 and beyond.

In terms of metro-area testing, T-Mobile had 169 first-place awards or ties, up from 60 in the last report.

In an interview with FierceWireless, Moore said T-Mobile's rapid deployment of LTE was a major factor in it moving up the ranks, but noted that both T-Mobile and Sprint are still in the midst of their LTE deployments. "We anticipate we will continue to see improvement in both cases," he said.

Moore said that in areas where Spark has been deployed, RootMetrics is seeing strong speeds. Moore called Sprint "a bit of a dark horse" and noted the carrier needs to attract more customers so they can "get on the network to enjoy the increased speeds that their LTE network is trying to put out there."

Moore also said that T-Mobile's charge shows that the U.S. wireless market remains competitive and dynamic. "I don't think the race is over," he said. "The one constant here is change."

For more:
- see this RootMetrics page
- see this RootMetrics report (PDF)

Related Articles:
Verizon to launch VoLTE in Q4, but delays first LTE-only phones to 2016
T-Mobile's Carter promises 20x20 MHz LTE 'in all of our major metropolitan areas' - at some point
Sprint confirms most of its LTE devices will be able to access 4x2 MIMO technology
T-Mobile passes Sprint with 230M LTE POPs, while Verizon dominates with 306M LTE POPs
T-Mobile's 'data-strong' network gains LTE coverage, bandwidth
T-Mobile's Ray knocks RootMetrics report, lays out LTE vision
RootMetrics: Verizon tops overall network performance tests, T-Mobile comes in last

Read more about: Sprint Spark, AWS
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By Phil Goldstein

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4. HTC wants to fill a 'hug gap' at the high end with One M8 for Windows Phone

The National Association of Broadcasters sued the FCC over its rules for next year's planned auction of 600 MHz broadcast TV spectrum, arguing that the agency's rules would diminish broadcasters' coverage areas and could result in a loss in viewership.

One of the broadcasters' main arguments against the FCC is that the commission has changed how it calculates TV station coverage areas, using a methodology known as OET-69, referencing the FCC's Office of Engineering and Technology.

The incentive auction is going to be an incredibly complex process and the lawsuit adds another obstacle FCC officials must maneuver around ahead of the auctions, scheduled to begin in the middle of 2015. Under the basic auction structure, after broadcasters give up their spectrum, it will be "repacked" so that broadcasters that do not give up their spectrum can stay on the air. Then the FCC will conduct a traditional "forward" auction in which wireless carriers will bid for the freed spectrum.

"Under this new methodology, many broadcast licensees, including NAB's members, will lose coverage area and population served during the auction's repacking and reassignment process, or be forced to participated in the auction (and relinquish broadcast spectrum rights)," the NAB lawsuit states.

The FCC's rules could result in "significant loss of viewership of broadcast TV stations" after the FCC repacks TV stations, the NAB said.

"We are confident that the Report and Order fulfills the mandates established by Congress on this complex matter," an FCC spokesperson said.

Rick Kaplan, NAB's executive vice president of strategic planning and a former FCC wireless bureau chief, wrote in a blog post "NAB has never advocated for--in words or deeds--any undue delay in the auction." Kaplan noted the organization filed its lawsuit as soon as possible after the rules were published in the Federal Register and is seeking an expedited review before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. "Our aim is to resolve our core challenges as quickly as possible, so the FCC can immediately return to its auction preparations," he wrote. "We believe the court can help us swiftly address our discrete issues."

Kaplan said the NAB's main concern was with the OET-69 changes, noting that Congress took "the unusual step" of telling the FCC exactly how to calculate the broadcasters' coverage areas and populations served, saying the FCC "must use the same approach it uses today to evaluate any new station application, called OET-69."

"The FCC, however, sees Congress' direction as inconvenient, and thus has made changes to this time-honored methodology (and for purposes of this auction only)," Kaplan wrote. "The result is that, what Congress assumed to be a constant in the auction process--the methodology for calculating broadcaster coverage areas and population served--now is reducing the coverage areas and populations served for the majority of broadcasters. That methodological change was not part of the deal, and the FCC has improperly and imprudently moved the goalposts from the goal line on which we all agreed. In fact, the OET-69 provision was inserted into the Spectrum Act precisely to avoid this kind of mid-stream resizing."

Kaplan also wrote that the NAB is concerned the FCC is not making "all reasonable efforts" to preserve broadcasters' coverage areas, as Congress directed, and that the FCC's rules do "little to ensure that the Commission won't repack beyond its financial means and that broadcasters won't get stuck with the bill."

However, Kaplan struck a conciliatory tone and said the lawsuit "is not designed to derail the auction, or even slow it down. We are looking for a mid-course correction that better reflects Congress' intent and that protects broadcasters and the millions of vulnerable over-the-air TV viewers. We believe strongly that the FCC itself can achieve a better balance. If not, with this litigation we can right the ship that puts more spectrum out in the marketplace while ensuring a vibrant and robust broadcasting service for the American people."

Scott Bergmann, CTIA's vice president of regulatory affairs, said the wireless trade group "would prefer to work together collaboratively to address NAB's concerns rather than resort to litigation. We are hopeful the court addresses these issues quickly and that the NAB adheres to its commitment for an expedited process without unnecessary delays."

FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler and other agency officials have been leading the charge to entice TV broadcasters to participate in the incentive auction, which is critical for its success. FCC officials have been meeting with broadcasters individually across the country this summer to give them estimates of the amount of money broadcasters could receive for voluntarily relinquishing some or all of their spectrum rights in the auction.

The FCC expects to issue final auction rules in the first quarter of next year and then begin the reverse part of the auction in the middle of 2015.

For more:
- see this NAB lawsuit (PDF)
- see this NAB blog post
- see this NAB statement
- see this CTIA statement
- see this Broadcasting & Cable article
- see this National Journal article

By Phil Goldstein

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5. Sprint's App Pass to give subs unlimited access to select apps, games for $5/month

HTC unveiled a variant of its flagship One M8 smartphone running Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows Phone software, giving the platform the same kind of high-end hardware HTC and other phone makers have usually reserved for flagship Android devices. HTC hopes it can fill what it sees as a gap in the premium Windows Phone segment.

Click here for a larger version of this image of the HTC One M8 for Windows.

The device is available online now exclusively through Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) for a promotional price of $99.99 with a two-year contract for a limited time or $29.99 per month on the Verizon Edge handset upgrade program.

At a media event in New York City, Jason Mackenzie, HTC's president of the Americas, said that the HTC One M8 for Windows represents "the first time a smartphone manufacturer has launched an iconic device in multiple operating systems without making any compromises," according to a CNET live blog.

Like the Android version, the One M8 for Windows features a metal unibody construction and sports a quad-core 2.3 GHz Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) Snapdragon 801 processor. The phone has a 5-inch, full HD 1080p display, dual front-facing BoomSound speakers and a UltraPixel "Duo Camera" that incorporates a special depth sensor, which can capture detailed depth information from a scene to produce better-looking photos. Further, the phone offers key HTC One software elements available on the Android version of the gadget, such as the company's BlinkFeed social media and news reader.

The phone also supports HTC's Dot View case, which lets users answer calls, receive email and text notifications, check weather and more. Further, Microsoft's Cortana digital personal assistant, new to Windows Phone 8.1, can surface reminders, queries and talk through the case.

Cortana is the biggest new feature for Windows Phone 8.1. A mix between Google's Now service for Android and Siri from Apple's iOS, Cortana can access a phone's calling, messaging and calendar functions, and can set reminders, make notes, set alarms, see what music is playing nearby, schedule appointments and answer questions about sports scores and restaurants. It can even tell a user how many calories are in certain foods.

Despite years of effort by Microsoft, Windows Phone is being increasingly marginalized in the market. According research firm IDC, Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android and Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iOS combined for a global market share for smartphone shipments in the second quarter of 96.4 percent, up from 92.6 percent in the year-ago period.

According to IDC, Windows Phone actually saw its market share declined globally in the second quarter to 2.5 percent, down from 3.4 percent in the year-ago quarter, making it a distant third in the market. Microsoft is hoping that new phones running the latest version of its software, as well as cheaper models from new hardware partners introduced in emerging markets, will help spark sales.

In an interview with FierceWireless, Mackenzie said that although HTC has been a Microsoft partner since before the smartphone era, HTC has been "a little bit quiet" in recent years with respect to its Windows Phone announcements. He said that is changing with the One M8 for Windows.

"We just saw a huge gap," he said. He said Windows Phone does not have a high-end device that inspires the same "envy" that the One M8 for Android does on that platform. HTC held meetings with Microsoft and Verizon late last year to see if they could bring the One M8 to Windows Phone, and Mackenzie sad Verizon had the same mindset as HTC.

Mackenzie said Microsoft has been successful at the low end of the market but that it was missing out on high-end devices. Nokia's high-end Lumia phones have focused on imaging but some reviewers have knocked them for being too bulky. Mackenzie said in the past if a customer wanted a high-end Windows Phone they had to sacrifice design and buy "a big, bulky pig of a phone."

Mackenzie said both Microsoft and Verizon are committed to marketing the product, so "you'll see advertising from both of them."

In terms of HTC's business in the United States, Mackenzie said he is still "extremely optimistic." One of the company's more recent initiatives has been to bring its mid-range Desire lineup to the U.S.--Sprint's (NYSE: S) Virgin Mobile prepaid brand is selling the Desire 816 for $299 without a contract and HTC will sell the Desire 610 and Desire 816 on its own website.

"You'll see HTC [get] a lot more aggressive this year in attacking this prepaid category," Mackenzie said, adding that the company has strong momentum and will be bringing its phones to more carriers. "We'll have the Desire product line on almost every major prepaid carrier out there."

For more:
- see this release
- see this The Verge live blog
- see this CNET live blog

Read more about: One M8 for Windows, Jason Mackenzie
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By Phil Goldstein

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