Nature Climate Change Contents October 2014 Volume 4 Number 10 pp 841-930

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TABLE OF CONTENTS October 2014 Volume 4, Issue 10 Editorials Correspondence Commentaries Interview Market Watch Research Highlights News and Views Perspectives Letters Articles Corrigendum Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Web Focus: Climate change countdown. In this joint web Focus, timed to coincide with the New York Climate Summit, Nature Climate Change and Nature Geoscience present a series of overview articles and opinion pieces that take stock of emissions and climate change uncertainties and discuss ways forward.  Selected content free online to registered users for a limited time.        Editorials Top Science that matters p841 doi:10.1038/nclimate2398 Climate change research can influence policy decisions, but needs to stretch its boundaries. See also: Commentary by Sabine Fuss et al. What's your story? p841 doi:10.1038/nclimate2408 An understanding of the personal frameworks we use to absorb and contextualize climate change information might help us to have more fruitful exchanges about climate policy. Correspondence Top Solar radiation management could be a game changer p842 Peter J. Irvine, Stefan Schäfer and Mark G. Lawrence doi:10.1038/nclimate2360 Enhancing the impact of climate science pp842 - 843 M. D. Morecroft, H. Q. P. Crick, S. J. Duffield, N. A. Macgregor and S. Taylor doi:10.1038/nclimate2371 Statistics of flood risk pp843 - 844 Mathias Raschke doi:10.1038/nclimate2373 See also: Correspondence by Brenden Jongman et al. Reply to 'Statistics of flood risk' pp844 - 845 Brenden Jongman, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Luc Feyen, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Reinhard Mechler, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Laurens M. Bouwer, Georg Pflug, Rodrigo Rojas and Philip J. Ward doi:10.1038/nclimate2376 See also: Correspondence by Mathias Raschke Spatiotemporal patterns of warming pp845 - 846 Marc Macias-Fauria, Alistair W. R. Seddon, David Benz, Peter R. Long and Kathy Willis doi:10.1038/nclimate2372 See also: Correspondence by Zhaohua Wu et al. Reply to 'Spatiotemporal patterns of warming' pp846 - 848 Zhaohua Wu, Eric P. Chassignet, Fei Ji and Jianping Huang doi:10.1038/nclimate2374 See also: Correspondence by Marc Macias-Fauria et al. Commentaries Top Practitioners' work and evidence in IPCC reports pp848 - 850 David Viner and Candice Howarth doi:10.1038/nclimate2362 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports provide the most reliable and robust assessment of understanding of the climate system. However, they do not include practitioner-based evidence, which is fundamental to make the reports a relevant source of information for decision-making. Betting on negative emissions pp850 - 853 Sabine Fuss, Josep G. Canadell, Glen P. Peters, Massimo Tavoni, Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson, Chris D. Jones, Florian Kraxner, Nebosja Nakicenovic, Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Ayyoob Sharifi, Pete Smith and Yoshiki Yamagata doi:10.1038/nclimate2392 Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could be used to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, its credibility as a climate change mitigation option is unproven and its widespread deployment in climate stabilization scenarios might become a dangerous distraction. See also: Editorial Copenhagen II or something new pp853 - 855 David G. Victor doi:10.1038/nclimate2396 For the first time since the failed 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, momentum is building towards a new climate agreement. But expectations must be kept in check, and making expert advice more useful to the process will require engaging the social sciences more fully. See also: Editorial Interview Top Looking forward pp856 - 857 doi:10.1038/nclimate2395 Future Earth is a new international research initiative that aims to better prepare society for global environmental change and improve global sustainability. Nature Climate Change spoke to James Syvitski, Chair of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, one of the member organizations. Market Watch Top Cash flow pp858 - 859 Anna Petherick doi:10.1038/nclimate2390 The Green Climate Fund needs more contributions if it is to become the world's main source of climate finance. Anna Petherick considers an upcoming effort to make that happen. Research Highlights Top Atmospheric science: Mean and extreme snowfall | Climate policy: Adaptation and mitigation | Science/policy interface: The middle ground | Energy economics: From cost to price News and Views Top Mitigation and health: Climate policy not so costly pp861 - 862 Jonathan Buonocore doi:10.1038/nclimate2391 Climate change mitigation can benefit human health by reducing air pollution. Research now shows that the economic value of health improvements can substantially outweigh mitigation costs, and that more flexible policies could have higher benefits. See also: Article by Tammy M. Thompson et al. Oceanography: Oxygen and climate dynamics pp862 - 863 Scott C. Doney and Kristopher B. Karnauskas doi:10.1038/nclimate2386 Low oxygen levels in tropical oceans shape marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry, and climate change is expected to expand these regions. Now a study indicates that regional dynamics control tropical oxygen trends, bucking projected global reductions in ocean oxygen. Atmospheric chemistry: A new player in climate change pp864 - 865 Kirsti Ashworth doi:10.1038/nclimate2394 Land-use change from pre-industrial times to the present day has altered Earth's surface energy balance. Until now, the role of volatile hydrocarbons, emitted by plants, in controlling this balance and driving climate change has been overlooked. See also: Letter by Nadine Unger nclimate JOBS of the week Senior Climate Analyst Union of Concerned Scientists Locum Associate Editor, Nature Climate Change Nature Publishing Group - NPG Environmental Policy Tenure Track Position Indiana University Epibenthic Biologist Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) Ocean / Ice Modeller British Antarctic Survey More Science jobs from nclimate EVENT Feedbacks on Climate in the Earth System 08.12.14 London, UK More science events from   Perspectives Top Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation pp867 - 872 Klaus Eisenack, Susanne C. Moser, Esther Hoffmann, Richard J. T. Klein, Christoph Oberlack, Anna Pechan, Maja Rotter and Catrien J. A. M. Termeer doi:10.1038/nclimate2350 The development and implementation of measures aimed at climate change adaptation face many obstacles. This Perspective takes stock of current research on barriers to adaptation, and argues that more comparative research is now required to increase our in-depth understanding of barriers and to develop strategies to overcome them. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions pp873 - 879 Michael R. Raupach, Steven J. Davis, Glen P. Peters, Robbie M. Andrew, Josep G. Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Frank Jotzo, Detlef P. van Vuuren and Corinne Le Quéré doi:10.1038/nclimate2384 Future cumulative CO2 emissions consistent with a given warming limit are a finite common global resource that countries need to share — a carbon quota. Strategies to share a quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit range from keeping the present distribution to reaching an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. This Perspective shows that a blend of these endpoints is the most viable solution. Climate-mediated dance of the plankton pp880 - 887 Michael J. Behrenfeld doi:10.1038/nclimate2349 Climate change will impact ocean plankton through changing resources, temperatures and ocean physical processes. This study discusses how climate change could affect the relationship between predators and prey, what it means for population abundunce — whether rapid cell division to form bloom events will occur — and how it could influence the ocean ecosystem. Letters Top Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming pp888 - 892 Shayne McGregor, Axel Timmermann, Malte F. Stuecker, Matthew H. England, Mark Merrifield, Fei-Fei Jin and Yoshimitsu Chikamoto doi:10.1038/nclimate2330 The Pacific trade winds have strengthened since the late 1990s, and there has been related strengthening of the atmospheric Walker circulation. Although the impacts of these changes are becoming known, their cause has not been identified. This study, using observations and models, shows that warming of the Atlantic sea surface and corresponding displacement of atmospheric pressure centres are key drivers. Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus pp893 - 897 Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Hiroaki Tatebe, Michiya Hayashi, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto doi:10.1038/nclimate2355 The role of natural decadal variability in the global warming slowdown has been hinted at, but not quantified. This study looks at decadal average surface temperature anomalies for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The results show that decadal variability is a large contributor to temperature trends, but its influence has decreased, from 47% in the 1980s to 27% in the 2000s, as anthropogenic warming has increased. Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming pp898 - 902 Gerald A. Meehl, Haiyan Teng and Julie M. Arblaster doi:10.1038/nclimate2357 Accounting for natural decadal variability allows better prediction of short-term trends. This study looks at the ability of individual models, which are in phase with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, to simulate the current global warming slowdown. The authors highlight that the current trend could have been predicted in the 1990s with this technique and the need for consistent hindcast skills to allow reliable decadal predictions. Accelerated microbial turnover but constant growth efficiency with warming in soil pp903 - 906 Shannon B. Hagerty, Kees Jan van Groenigen, Steven D. Allison, Bruce A. Hungate, Egbert Schwartz, George W. Koch, Randall K. Kolka and Paul Dijkstra doi:10.1038/nclimate2361 Whether rising temperatures will reduce global soil carbon stocks and enhance climate warming remains uncertain, in part because of a poor understanding of the mechanisms of soil microbial response to warming. Research now shows that microbial growth efficiency is insensitive to temperature change and that the response of microbial respiration to warming is driven by accelerated microbial turnover and enzyme kinetics. Human land-use-driven reduction of forest volatiles cools global climate pp907 - 910 Nadine Unger doi:10.1038/nclimate2347 The global radiative effects of historical cropland expansion are typically estimated as the trade-off between reduced land carbon storage (causing warming) and increased surface albedo (causing cooling). Now research shows that the net atmospheric chemistry effect (−0.11 ± 0.17 W m−2) is of comparable magnitude and should also be taken into account. See also: News and Views by Kirsti Ashworth Articles Top Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming pp911 - 916 Kevin E. Trenberth, John T. Fasullo, Grant Branstator and Adam S. Phillips doi:10.1038/nclimate2341 The slowdown in global warming has been identified predominately through changes in the Pacific Ocean. This study investigates the teleconnections and seasonal changes associated with the slowdown. The present forcing from the tropical Pacific is found to produce many of the changes in atmospheric circulation, for example, changes in the upper troposphere wave patterns increase the chances of cold European winters. A systems approach to evaluating the air quality co-benefits of US carbon policies pp917 - 923 Tammy M. Thompson, Sebastian Rausch, Rebecca K. Saari and Noelle E. Selin doi:10.1038/nclimate2342 The near-term costs of greenhouse-gas emissions reduction may be offset by the air-quality co-benefits of mitigation policies. Now research estimates the monetary value of the human health benefits from air-quality improvements due to US carbon abatement policies, and finds that the benefits can offset 26–1,050% of the cost of mitigation policies. See also: News and Views by Jonathan Buonocore Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation pp924 - 929 Bojana Baj?elj, Keith S. Richards, Julian M. Allwood, Pete Smith, John S. Dennis, Elizabeth Curmi and Christopher A. Gilligan doi:10.1038/nclimate2353 With food demand set to double, agriculture will account for a larger proportion of total future greenhouse-gas emissions. Yet global food production and land-use scenarios have received relatively little attention in relation to climate change mitigation. This study shows that to avoid dangerous climate change, we must address food demand, as sustainable intensification of agriculture does not, in itself, suffice. Corrigendum Top Corrigendum: Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage p930 Rupert Seidl, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Werner Rammer and Pieter Johannes Verkerk doi:10.1038/nclimate2393 See also: Letter by Rupert Seidl et al. 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