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2016/04/03

[Market Outlook] The Sea Change You Can't Ignore (the Saudi Prince Sees It!)

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The Sea Change You Can't Ignore (the Saudi Prince Sees It!)

April 3rd, 2016
Keith Schneider       
CEO, MarketGauge.com 

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US Equity Markets ended the month with big gains (+ 6 %) and made new YTD highs early this before getting a bit of indigestion. It then took a few days off this to get some needed rest before resuming its relentless march upward on Friday. Most interesting to note is the divergence between oils performance and that of the equity markets.

The nasty early January/ February selloff of -30% or more in oil hit the equity sector hard, taking just about all equities down with it.  That was until the snapback rally in oil took hold mid-February and took the equity indexes up in lockstep.

That relationship held true until this week. Now its seems equities and oil are now in divorce proceedings.

The S&P 500 closed up over + 1 % for the week with oil down- 6.5%.

This divergence is reminiscent more of the 70’s when high inflation and oil were related and not great for stocks. Back then, generally speaking, stable or lower oil prices were considered a positive for the equities.

For those old enough to recall, in 1973, OAPEC (Arab Petroleum Exporters) tripled the price of oil, embargoed crude oil shipments and created what was known as the first oil shock. These were not big positives for equites or global growth. Many of those long term effects still impact us today, although from the looks of things it seems like we have finally entered a new era.

There were two major headlines this week and both are the underpinnings of a sea change (not rising sea levels).  We are not talking climate change here but it is directly related.

First, this week Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince announced that they are selling a piece of their economic crown jewel Aramco (it’s the world’s largest oil company and owned by the monarchy) by taking it public.

This is a move to get liquidity for the royal family, wean itself off the dependence of Oil and rely on investment income not related to fossil fuel within the next 20 years.

The writing is on the wall, even the Saudi’s see it, and its renewable, clean and cheap energy. It is coming sooner and faster than expected.

The second item is that Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla announced its taking orders for its new electric car for masses, the Model 3.  At $35,000 its costs less than half the price of their high end luxury car the Model S. It received almost 200,000 pre-orders in just a few days for a car that might be ready in 2017.  Tesla’s stock has now rallied almost $100 (70%) from its 2016 lows.

Besides the hype and the Elon Musk-tique, the acceptance of electric cars and hybrids just underscores the speed at which alternative energy is moving mainstream.

Are the equites markets waking up to the prospect of cheap, clean energy and fueling this rally? If so, some of these renewable energy plays are undervalued.

Besides the usual fare in this week’s video we are going a look at the Energy sector and some of the alternatives.

Click here for this weeks video.

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