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2022/11/01

140 Straight Wins... and Counting

Jerome Powell doesn't matter if you do this... Cheers to our Doc Eifrig... A new personal-best win streak... Make money from other people's fear... Safer than owning stocks... A gift for you... Give Retirement Trader a try with our best deal ever...
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Jerome Powell doesn't matter if you do this... Cheers to our Doc Eifrig... A new personal-best win streak... Make money from other people's fear... Safer than owning stocks... A gift for you... Give Retirement Trader a try with our best deal ever...


This note arrived shortly after we published last night's Digest...

Paid-up subscriber Neil S. looked over yesterday's daily report, where we discussed – again – the Federal Reserve, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and what the central bank might do with interest rates next... and what that could mean for the markets...

And in Neil's opinion, we overlooked an even bigger story – from within our own office – that would have been better to highlight instead. As he wrote...

How can you not mention Doc breaking his old winning streak, now at 140 wins and counting? Powell does not matter if you follow Doc. Thanks.

First off, Neil is spot-on. As I (Corey McLaughlin) will explain today, Jerome Powell doesn't matter, or at least as much, if you use a trading strategy that our friend and Stansberry Research partner Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig calls his all-time favorite...

And while we did publish a brief shoutout in the Digest on October 21, the day Doc set a new personal-best streak winning trades using this strategy in his Retirement Trader advisory, we're glad to give his achievement even more attention.

So, cue the balloons and streamers... Yes, Doc has done it: 140 straight wins – and counting.

Congratulations are in order. And to celebrate, we have a special gift for anyone interested in subscribing to Doc's Retirement Trader today. (More on that at the end of today's essay.)

But first, some important background, as regular readers may know...

We've been tracking Doc's 'playoff beard' as he neared the new mark...

In April, Doc wrote to you directly to say that his playoff beard was back. It's much like a professional athlete growing out facial hair while chasing a championship... and not cutting it until the goal is achieved.

This spring, Doc was in range of a new win-streak record, sitting on 116 consecutive positions he closed for gains. His previous best was 136, a streak that ended in 2013... and Doc made the case for reaching a new mark this year. From Doc's April essay...

I was on the trading desk at Goldman Sachs during the historic crash known as "Black Monday." I've also traded through the dot-com bust, as well as the financial crisis.

Over those decades in the markets, I've developed strategies to make money in all kinds of environments – up markets, flat markets, and even in down markets.

And everything I learned from my time at Goldman Sachs through today, I've written about in my Retirement Trader service. I've taught these lessons to thousands of subscribers.

Since 2010, when we first launched this trading service, we've closed 643 trades... And 603 of them have been winners. That's a 94% win rate.

At the time, though, Doc admitted "we're in an odd place in the market right now" with inflation raging, tech stocks getting hammered, and the Fed raising rates. But he said all was well for Retirement Trader subscribers...

There's so much fear in the market... And I couldn't be more excited.

You see, the strategy we use in Retirement Trader thrives as folks get afraid. It harnesses all of the fear and anxiety swirling around and uses it to help us make more money...

It's easy to let all the fearmongering get the better of you. Fortunately, I understand times like these and have devoted my life to helping folks like you get through them...

Folks who cast aside their fears and give this strategy a chance can keep steadily increasing their wealth amid all the chaos... by taking advantage of the chaos.

Doc's message was timely – and right...

Even amid all the twists and turns of one of the worst years for stocks and bonds in history, Doc has kept making winning trades...

So far this year, Doc has a roughly 21% average annualized return on 40 closed trades, including around a 48% annualized return on the record-breaking trade via oil major Chevron (CVX). The strategy is repeatable – Doc typically shares at least two trade recommendations with his subscribers every month – so annualized returns matter.

And his beard has gotten longer and longer and longer. As Doc wrote on Friday to Retirement Trader readers...

Just look at a picture of a Stanley Cup-winning NHL team over the past few years... You'll see some gnarly beards. The whole thing started as a superstition. But now, it's a tradition.

It has become a tradition at Retirement Trader, too, where we've had our own winning streak. And I'd stack my beard up against any hockey player at the moment. (Though I could do without the odd looks as I walk down the street.)

Here's how Doc looked in Boston last week at our annual Stansberry Conference...

Now, picture Doc raising the Stanley Cup over his head... or partying in a joyous locker room with teammates, champagne spraying all over... or, better yet, the championship team enjoying some of Doc's California-grown wine.

Cheers, Doc. And congratulations to his subscribers as well...

Doc's trading strategy – which uses options to generate income – can work in nearly any investing environment. This win streak proves it.

Most traders associate options with speculative bets. They buy a "call" option if they think a stock is going up... And they buy a "put" option if they think it's going down.

These options are leveraged bets that can pay off massively if you're right and wipe you out if you get it a little bit wrong. Or they're a way to protect your portfolio if your stocks head south.

Doc flips that logic upside down... He recommends selling options. Plus, he only sells options on companies that he fully understands and that he believes offer a high margin of safety... That's his recipe for success.

As our publisher Brett Aitken wrote in last year's "report card" when grading Doc's Retirement Trader service, you can think of selling puts as the market equivalent of being an insurance salesman...

On the other end is the customer – or put buyer – betting on lower prices. As Brett wrote...

You hope you never need it... But you're happy to pay the upfront premium for the peace of mind that you're covered if an accident occurs.

People that buy puts are effectively buying insurance that they'll get a guaranteed amount if the share price declines to – or below – a certain price. And people will sometimes pay a lot for that insurance when volatility strikes.

And they have to buy that put from somewhere... So do those speculators who are buying calls.

Doc's strategy works in 'fearful' times – and most others...

In other words, as Neil alluded to... Bring the pain, Jerome Powell. Bring on any other risk out there. That's just fine...

We're talking about an opportunity to make money by benefiting from other people's fear. As Doc explained in his latest issue of Retirement Trader, published on Friday...

Stocks are down 20% year to date. Yet we still managed to close out 40 winners in 2022 alone.

This current streak started on May 15, 2020. If you remember, this was a time when it looked like COVID-19 was going to wreck our economy. Fear was sky-high, and most folks didn't want anything to do with the market.

If you've been trading with us since then, kudos to you. You were able to deploy your capital into these option trades when most folks were on the sidelines. And since then, you've sold options as stocks rebounded swiftly from the COVID-19 panic and as markets have taken a beating this year.

Put simply, our method of selling options works... in just about any market condition.

It works when stocks roar higher, as we saw last year. And it also survives during a bear market. Broad-based fear is actually good for us as we receive higher premium payments.

Now, I know the word "options" scares a lot of people. Then we talk about the less familiar idea of selling options rather than buying them. And then we say to do it dozens of times a year.

You might think this strategy must be complicated, riskier than buying stocks, or so much work it's a part-time job. Not so.

The strategy is simple. And while some option strategies carry big risk, selling options is safer than owning stocks outright... so long as you have a good guide. And that's why we listen to Doc.

As Jeff Havenstein, an analyst on Doc's team, wrote in a 2019 Digest...

When used correctly, selling options is one of the safest and most consistent money-making strategies out there.

When my friends ask for investing tips and ways to get started, I always point them in the direction of selling options...

If you own stock, you should learn about selling options.

In Retirement Trader, Doc and his team explain everything someone needs to know about this options strategy in an easy-to-follow way that you won't find anywhere else in our business. And they give step-by-step instructions on how to make and close trades.

For example, Doc recommends using this strategy only on stocks that you are comfortable owning for the long term. He also explains how to limit risky leverage while you're starting out.

You don't string together 140 straight trades without a loss – a streak that started in May 2020 – by not knowing what you're doing. And you can't win 94% of your trades over more than a dozen years if your strategy doesn't work. Doc's existing subscribers know what I'm talking about.

This is an opportunity in itself... to use a part of the markets to make money that many people simply overlook or discard. Without giving too much more away, here's some additional insight on how it works.

High volatility is an opportunity...

When options traders are worried and expecting more volatility, options get more expensive. Today, for example, their prices remain high.

Doc uses the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") as the primary measure of volatility. As we've mentioned before, the VIX measures the expected volatility in the S&P 500 Index over the next 30 days by looking at the prices people are willing to pay on call and put options for a wide range of stocks.

Volatility has trended down over the past week or so. Except for bad headlines from tech stocks, there hasn't been much drama from the current earnings season. Still, option sellers are doing well, as Doc wrote on Friday...

But when you look at a one-year chart of the VIX, volatility is still high.

It's unlikely that earnings will continue to go this smoothly over the next few weeks. There will be a lot of stocks shooting higher on positive results. And there will be stocks plunging on negative results.

This week, we also have another Fed meeting on tap... Stocks have sold off some in the past two days. But no matter what happens next, Doc says he'll take advantage of higher volatility over the next few issues of Retirement Trader.

As we've said, the right trades can profit no matter what is happening in the markets.

There's no better time to try Doc's strategy than today...

As its name suggests, Retirement Trader can work especially well for retirees and folks near retirement. I've heard subscribers say it's a critical part of their retirement income.

But the strategy can be worthwhile for anyone with money in the markets to understand... especially if this market churns sideways amid higher inflation. If we don't see the kind of returns in stocks that we did over the past 10 or 15 years, it's another way to make money in the markets.

If you're in or near retirement, are looking to boost your income, and have capital to put to work, Doc's strategy can be the perfect fit for you.

And there's no better time to give Doc's Retirement Trader service a try than right now. Here is the gift I was talking about...

For this week only, in celebration of his new record, Doc is offering his best deal ever on what he says is his No. 1 favorite strategy of all time. Not only is he offering the lowest entry price he has ever offered for the service, he's tripling our typical satisfaction guarantee for anyone who wants to give it a try.

Click here for more details and to get started today.

Recession in 2023 Is a 'Done Deal'

In this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and I reflect on last week's Stansberry Conference. Dan also interviews Marko Papic, chief strategist at asset-management platform Clocktower, who delivers a strong warning for the economy in 2023...

Click here to listen to this episode right now. And to catch all of our shows and more videos and podcasts from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to visit our Stansberry Investor platform anytime.


Recommended Links:

Is This 'Tone Deaf'?

Dr. David Eifrig: "YES, I'm celebrating. YES, in this dismal market... where folks are feeling a lot of pain and almost nothing has worked... except for ONE strategy that's almost perfectly suited for this exact kind of environment. It has just racked up an all-time record-breaking undefeated streak." Full details here.


'A Gold Storm Is Coming'

Some of the richest men in the world are jumping in right now... because evidence suggests we could see MUCH HIGHER gold prices before the end of this year. But if you're not taking advantage of a little-known way to invest for less than $10, you're missing out. Click here for the full details.


New 52-week highs (as of 10/31/22): Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Black Stone Minerals (BSM), Covenant Logistics (CVLG), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), General Mills (GIS), Humana (HUM), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Rollins (ROL), UnitedHealth (UNH), and ExxonMobil (XOM).

In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest, including observations about inflation's impact on spending... and whether we've seen "panic" yet... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Hello! I am a longtime Alliance member. Instead of attending the Boston meeting, last week I took my grandsons and wife to Disney World in Orlando. Since we know folks are cutting back on non-essentials due to the high inflation rate, I was curious about what we would find. First of all, I knew prices would be high, but prices were uniformly higher than I expected. Secondly, crowds were enormous! Obviously, I have no objective numbers, but it certainly appeared that the economy is having zero negative effect on Disney World. I'm sure there are lots of reasons, such as trips planned way in advance, many of them to celebrate special occasions.

"Thank you for the brilliant work you produce every day. Joining the Alliance is the best investment decision I have ever made! I was fortunate to join several years ago when you generously gave a gold coin to new members as a promotion." – Stansberry Alliance member Steve G.

"Thoroughly enjoying reading all your 'daily digest' perspectives on shorter term economic issues impacting investment risk. The Fed will likely keep hiking because of long term trends impacting prices and inflation. The cost of this will be unfortunately job losses.

"I'm sure the employees getting laid off would rather have the problem of paying higher prices while still getting a paycheck..." – Paid-up subscriber Rodger G.

"A lot of tech stocks are down 70 percent. That's panic. Not some orderly decline." – Paid-up subscriber Richard L.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
November 1, 2022


Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations

Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios

Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst
ADP
Automatic Data
10/09/08 853.1% Extreme Value Ferris
MSFT
Microsoft
11/11/10 828.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc
MSFT
Microsoft
02/10/12 710.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
HSY
Hershey
12/07/07 569.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
ETH/USD
Ethereum
02/21/20 558.3% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade
AFG
American Financial
10/12/12 455.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
04/01/09 423.2% Retirement Millionaire Doc
WRB
W.R. Berkley
03/16/12 420.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
TPL
Texas Pacific Land
11/05/20 366.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula
ALS-T
Altius Minerals
02/16/09 305.2% Extreme Value Ferris

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Top 10 Totals
5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula
2 Extreme Value Ferris
2 Retirement Millionaire Doc
1 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade

Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations

Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio

Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst
ETH/USD
Ethereum
12/07/18 1,289.7% Crypto Capital Wade
ONE-USD
Harmony
12/16/19 1,153.4% Crypto Capital Wade
POLY/USD
Polymath
05/19/20 1,089.3% Crypto Capital Wade
MATIC/USD
Polygon
02/25/21 864.7% Crypto Capital Wade
TONE/USD
TE-FOOD
12/17/19 502.1% Crypto Capital Wade

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Stansberry Research Hall of Fame

Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios

Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst
Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade
Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade
Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud
Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade
Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade
Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root
Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams

^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.

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