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2025/02/06

This Dirty Energy Can Make You Filthy Rich

Practical Investment Analysis for the New Energy Economy

This Dirty Energy Can Make You Filthy Rich

It’s time to get dirty on your energy profits in 2025.

Look, I’ll be honest right from the start — I hate coal. 

Truth is, I’ve always hated it. Not only is it considered the dirtiest source of energy on the planet, but we’ve been burning it for 324 years, ever since our first commercial coal mining started just outside of Richmond, Virginia. 

That’s not the only reason, either. 

I know the general narrative out there is that renewable growth from sources like wind and solar led to the death of the U.S. coal industry.

However, that’s not exactly true. 

If you really want to get down to the nitty gritty of coal’s demise, it wasn’t the green energy crusade over the last 15 years that signed the industry’s death warrant — it was cheap, abundant natural gas. 

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Today, this dirty energy only accounts for about 8% of total U.S. energy consumption, nearly all of which is used for electrical generation:

us energy demand

Things are getting worse, too. 

We retired 3 GW of coal generation last year, which follows the trend we’ve seen for more than a decade. Ten years ago our coal plant capacity was around 302,600 MW. That amount has now dwindled to roughly 177,000 MW in 2024 after more than a decade of coal plant retirements. 

Again, that’s not some shocking revelation to us. We’ve been watching the coal industry spiral down the drain as tight gas production soared during the shale boom. 

Over the next five years, we’re expecting to see another 61,000 MW of coal-fired capacity shutter as more plants are shutdown. Remember, the average U.S. coal plant age is around 44 years old, and we’re sure as hell not building new ones. 

Why on earth would you ever want to invest a dime of your hard earned cash into coal stocks when the U.S. is well on its way of phasing it out of our energy dynamic?

Well, that’s because throughout all the doom-and-gloom narratives surrounding it, the cold, hard truth is this: Dirty coal can still make you filthy rich.

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Even though it feels like coal is circling the drain, what most people don’t realize is that U.S. coal exports hit a six-year high last year. Don’t take my word for it, go ahead and see the EIA’s data for yourself:

coal exports

And that, dear reader, is where our opportunity lies. 

While it’s hard for a lot of investors to pay attention to demand trends outside of the U.S. or get distracted by the headline blitz over tariffs and the like, it’s important to keep in mind that like many other energy sources like crude oil, global coal demand is going to hit an all-time high this year… just like it did in 2024.  

We may be sick of dirty coal here in the U.S., and the EU may have pushed too hard to rid itself of it during their aggressive transition to wind and solar, but the rest of the world is perfectly content burning all the coal it can get it’s hands on. 

Do you think China is really concerned about what energy source they use to fuel their growth? Spoiler: They aren't. 

It’s one of the main reasons why the Paris Agreement was doomed to fail from the start — China could care less, or else it would’ve been more proactive reducing its emissions. 

But its not China that is opening the door for U.S. coal exporters. 

It’s India.

India is far and away our largest customer for coal exports, and their hunger for dirty coal is projected to grow by 3% this year. 

Make no mistake, our coal exports will continue to climb higher in 2025, and it makes our top coal producers worth a second look. 

From Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) to Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP), both of which have performed admirably for shareholders since 2020, and this may be the least likely part of the energy sector that people are looking right now. 

Until next time,

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Keith Kohl

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