Trade Often or Not at All

Here’s why there is no in between  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

March 29, 2025 WEBSITE | UNSUBSCRIBE

Trade Often or Not at All Dear Reader, It's been a whirlwind week in the markets, full of buzzy headlines and big moves. But as always, our goal is to make sense of the noise and focus on what really matters for your portfolio. One of the major items has to do with the market’s AI darling, Nvidia (NVDA). It’s behind every closed door, and for good reason. Companies need their chips and data centers to build out AI, so it makes sense that the company is now worth $3 trillion… For now. Enrique is forecasting a brand-new innovation, a brand-new chip he’s dubbing the “Nvidia Killer”. Not only could this mean $1.5 trillion is wiped from the company over the next 12 months and any in the way will get steamrolled, but it’ll also usher in a new AI era of lesser-known companies you can invest in today. Check out the research by clicking here. Let's break down the week’s major events — and more importantly, what they mean (and don’t mean) for us as investors. Signalgate: Lots of Noise, Little Signal for Investors By now you’ve probably heard the term “Signalgate” on the news. (If not, don’t worry… it’s basically the latest Washington scandal-of-the-week.) In short, a top official, National Security Adviser Michael Walz, accidentally added a journalist from The Atlantic into a private group chat on the encrypted messaging app Signal — a chat where they were apparently discussing a sensitive military operation. Oops! Suddenly, what should have been secret was splashed across headlines and congressional hearings all week. For political watchers, this was the equivalent of a soap opera. We saw Washington “taking by storm” with talk of investigations and finger-pointing. The White House even claimed the frenzy was a coordinated media attack, trying to shift blame, as press secretary Karoline Leavitt suggested in briefings. Meanwhile, the media and X had a field day with speculation. But before we get too far, let’s put our investor hat on: beyond the spectacle, did “Signalgate” change anything about market fundamentals? Probably not. It was certainly a distraction, and it added to a general sense of chaos in the news cycle. Yet, it didn’t directly move stock prices in a significant way. No company’s earnings outlook changed because someone got added to the wrong group chat. In fact, the most tangible ripple effect was ironic — the Signal app itself suddenly got a ton of free publicity. Tech pundits noted that downloads of Signal soared up the app charts after the incident as privacy-conscious folks said, “Hey, what’s this Signal thing everyone’s talking about?” Even in crypto circles, where privacy and security are hot topics, the reaction was more shrug than shock. Sure, some crypto commentators used Signalgate as a cautionary tale about trusting centralized platforms (or government communication for that matter). But the real drivers in crypto this week lay elsewhere (spoiler: tariffs and macro worries, which we’ll get to). The takeaway from Signalgate for us: Don’t let dramatic headlines lure you into knee-jerk decisions. As Enrique reminded us recently (and constantly for that matter), most pundits yelling on TV often don’t know what they’re talking about — especially when it comes to complex financial topics. This week’s kerfuffle was a perfect example of spectacle over substance. It’s interesting, even entertaining in a way. But it’s noise, not a true market signal. Our job is to separate the two. And as investors, we’d much rather focus on actual signals — like earnings, valuations, and trends — than get caught up in political dramas.

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Early-Week Relief Rally… Then Risk-off Retreat Now, on to the markets, where we saw a tale of two halves this week. Early on, the bulls came charging back. After roughly a month of heavy selling pressure (March had been rough up until this point), stocks found their footing and ripped higher to start the week. In fact, Monday’s rally was one of the strongest in weeks: the S&P 500 popped about 1.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq jumped over 2%. A lot of the beaten-down favorites suddenly sprang to life. Remember how Greg said recently that now is not the time for tactical traders to run and hide, even as others were panicking? He urged us to consider buying some of those hard-hit names that everyone was fleeing. Well, he was right on the money. Tesla (TSLA), one of the stocks Greg highlighted as “the stock everyone loves to hate,” absolutely skyrocketed. After getting clobbered for weeks by what Greg dubbed “hate sellers” (folks dumping shares just to spite Elon Musk or react to bad press), Tesla shares left those sellers in the dust. The stock surged almost 12% on Monday alone, its biggest one-day gain since last November. That came after news hinted that President Trump might scale back some of his harsher tariff plans, which gave a jolt of optimism to riskier plays like tech and crypto-adjacent stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD), other former high-fliers that had been dragged down, each rallied 3–7% on the day. In other words, the “bad news bounce” Greg talked about last week was in full effect: traders who stepped in to buy during the gloom were rewarded as the pendulum swung back. By Tuesday, the major indexes added modestly to those gains (S&P up another ~0.2%), making it the first back-to-back rally we’d seen in a while. You could almost hear the sigh of relief on Wall Street. One strategist called it a “slight sigh of relief,” though with a caution that the causes of the recent correction (like tariffs) hadn’t vanished. And indeed, by mid-week, that caution came roaring back. After the quick rebound, investors got cold feet again as they started eyeing the next big risk: the looming tariff announcement on April 2. We saw a flight to safety take hold. This meant money flowing out of stocks and speculative assets and into havens like gold and bonds. By Thursday, gold prices hit new highs, while many crypto tokens slumped hard. In fact, over the past 24–48 hours, Bitcoin slid about 2.5%, but the smaller coins got hit even worse — Ether down ~6%, and meme coins like Dogecoin down 7%. That’s a classic sign of investors reducing risk exposure, battening down the hatches ahead of a potential storm. We don’t have to sugarcoat it: the mood swung from “greed” back to “fear” pretty quickly. It’s a reminder of how sentiment can flip overnight. By the end of the week, much of the early rally euphoria had been replaced with nervously watching the calendar (and the bond market). Call it a “two steps forward, one step back” kind of week. Even so, if you kept your cool through these zigs and zags, you probably ended up about where you started or slightly ahead — with the S&P 500 managing to hang onto a chunk of those early gains. Volatility like this can be jarring. But it’s also normal when big unknowns are on the horizon. The key is having a plan so you’re not caught off guard. Tariffs on the Horizon: Bracing for “Tariff Day” (April 2) Now to the next big item circled on everyone’s calendar: April 2. Why? Because that’s when President Trump is expected to formally lay out his plan for new automobile tariffs — an event traders have half-jokingly dubbed “Tariff Day.” Given how much tariff talk has rocked the markets lately, it’s no surprise that this date looms large. Let’s rewind a second: Earlier in the week, Trump teased that auto tariffs were “coming soon,” but also hinted that “a lot of countries” might get exemptions or breaks. In other words, the tariffs might not be one-size-fits-all. That little bit of ambiguity was enough to fuel Monday’s rally. Investors figured, okay, maybe the tariff hammer won’t fall too hard. By Tuesday, the prevailing bet was that Trump would take a “more flexible stance” than feared. Traders love clarity (or at least the hope of it), and one market strategist noted that April 2 could provide at least some answers, calling it a “huge day” for finally getting a peek at the playbook. But as the week wore on, nervousness crept back in. Why? Well, we’ve seen tariff surprises before. A lot of companies have already warned that the uncertainty is hurting their outlooks — cutting forecasts because they just don’t know how bad this trade situation might get. Tariffs can mean higher costs (think pricier steel for carmakers) and retaliations (Europe and Asia putting their own tariffs on U.S. goods). In a worst-case scenario, you get a cascading effect that slows down global growth. No one wants to be caught offsides by an announcement that turns out harsher than expected. So how are market participants preparing? By playing defense. We saw it in the moves: gold up, speculative assets down, even U.S. Treasury yields dipping as money sought safety. Essentially, many folks chose to reduce exposure ahead of Tariff Day rather than gamble on a perfect outcome. It’s the old adage: Markets hate uncertainty. Once the news is out — good or bad — some of that uncertainty actually lifts. But in the final days before a big unknown, caution often rules. Here’s a key point to remember: We can’t predict political decisions (if you have a crystal ball on what Trump will do, you’re miles ahead of the rest of us!). What we can do is ensure our portfolios are positioned so that even if things swing one way or the other, we’re not wiped out. For instance, if you have a lot of industrial or auto stocks that could be hurt by tariffs, hopefully you’ve hedged those bets or sized those positions reasonably. If there’s a surprise positive (say, a much softer tariff stance), you might miss a tiny bit of upside if you were too conservative — but that’s okay. Our goal isn’t to bet the farm on one outcome; it’s to stay in the game no matter what happens. As contrarians at heart, we also note that when everyone is bracing for impact, sometimes the worst-case scenario doesn’t materialize. By the time Tariff Day arrives, a lot of bad news might already be “priced in” to stocks. If so, we could even see a relief rally if the announcements are merely okay and not terrible. That’s essentially what Greg has been saying. The strategy over spectacle approach means we don’t join in panicky selling after the headlines hit. Instead, we think ahead and look for opportunities that overreactions might present. We’ll know soon enough how this tariff story unfolds. In the meantime, our stance is to prepare, not predict. Fundamentals Rarely Change Overnight (Stick to the Plan) If your head is spinning from all the sensational news — Signalgate, protests, tariff tweets, summits — you’re not alone! It’s a lot to process in just one week. The important thing is not to lose sight of the bigger picture. As the saying goes, markets are fickle in the short term, but in the long run they follow fundamentals. Or put another way: sentiment and headlines can swing wildly day to day, but the intrinsic value of a company or the soundness of a strategy doesn’t vanish so quickly. Enrique hammered this point home in posts this week. He literally chuckled at how much airtime obscure concepts like stock buybacks get, often by pundits who “have no idea what they’re talking about”. Case in point: While TV panels argue if buybacks are good or evil, a company like AutoZone (AZO) quietly used buybacks to shrink its share count by almost 90% over two decades, massively boosting its earnings per share and delivering a 47,535% stock return to patient shareholders. Think about that — 47,535%! Those are life-changing gains, achieved not by hype or government policy, but by steady execution and a shareholder-friendly strategy. Enrique’s lesson was that when properly executed, buybacks can be great for investors — and more broadly, that focusing on real, tangible factors like share count and earnings beats getting caught up in whatever hot take is on CNBC that day. This reinforces our portfolio-first worldview: We care about what’s in our portfolio and why we own it, not whatever everyone on X is freaking out about this morning. Does Signalgate or a tariff tweet change the fact that people will still buy auto parts or that a well-run business will find ways to grow? Not really. So we must avoid sentiment-driven overreactions. Instead, as Enrique and Greg often remind us, we should double down on our strategy, valuation, and positioning. Have a game plan: Are you trading short-term or investing long-term? As Enrique wrote, “either trade often or not at all.” There’s no shame in either approach, but know which game you’re playing. The folks in between (not really trading, not really investing) are the ones who get hurt by whipsaw moves. Concentrate on quality. One of Enrique’s free tips: you don’t need 50 or 100 stocks to do well. A focused portfolio of 10–15 great picks (with each one chosen for real potential) is plenty. It forces you to choose only the best ideas and follow them closely. This week’s turbulence is easier to stomach if you truly believe in the companies you hold. Be selective and demand value. In fact, Enrique doesn’t even bother with a stock if he doesn’t see a chance to double his money in a couple of years. He’s hunting for ideas that could 3x–5x in five years. Now, we won’t always find home-runs like that, but the point is to aim high with your research and conviction. That way, even if a few picks falter (and some will, that’s life), the winners more than make up for it. This mindset can help you tune out the daily noise. If you think Company X can triple in value over five years due to its tech or market position, today’s political drama probably doesn’t change that thesis. In closing, the message we want to send is this: Don’t chase headlines; chase a sound strategy. The spectacles will come and go. There will always be another scandal, another policy surprise, another “can you believe it?” moment. They make for interesting conversation, but they shouldn’t derail a solid investing approach. Stick to your core principles: assess the fundamentals, know your risk tolerance, diversify enough but not too much, and be ready to pounce when others panic. And always keep one eye on the road ahead. Speaking of which, here’s a little something to look forward to… Next week, Enrique will break down the Gamestop (GME) situation from this past week — and their monumental decision to use their $4.6 billion cash hoard to add Bitcoin as a Treasury asset on their balance sheet. So stay tuned for that. Until next time, take care of your portfolio and keep your cool. Remember, fundamentals rarely change overnight, even if headlines do. In a market full of spectacle, choose strategy every time. Have a great weekend, and happy investing! Nick Editor, Truth & Trends

Prepare for Massive AI Disruption Legendary billion-dollar former hedge fund manager Enrique Abeyta is predicting… That Elon Musk’s new invention will be the "end of Nvidia." Click here to see the details of what he’s calling “the Nvidia killer” April 1st.

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