Your Shoulder Season Playbook

Your best leads are hiding  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

September 02, 2026   |   Read online   When the call board slows down, your first instinct may be to increase your marketing budget. But some of your best opportunities are already sitting in your database. The right outbound strategy can turn old leads and past customers into shoulder-season revenue.     Check out these resources before you go any further… This is how you compete with the big dogs in your map pack. A National Electrical Code (NEC) requirement affecting outdoor HVAC equipment is set to take effect in more than 20 states. How many outbound calls are you making every day? This matters. Google has changed its LSA terms and conditions (again), and it could impact your bottom line.     When the Phones Stop Ringing Shoulder season can hit fast. One month, the phones are ringing nonstop. The next, the call board looks empty, and every lead becomes harder to win. In this edition, I’ll break down how we prepare for that shift at Wilson. That starts with outbound calls, email, SMS, and proven offers that help us generate demand when fewer customers are reaching out on their own. We’ll also look at why your database matters so much. Every past customer, unsold estimate, and unconverted marketing lead represents an opportunity. We make up to 200 outbound calls per day, often finding homeowners who know something is wrong but have continued putting off the repair. Finally, I’ll explain how stronger sales execution and tighter spending can protect your bottom line. In some years, we’ve produced more free cash during shoulder season than during peak months because we converted more leads, controlled labor, and watched every dollar leaving the business.     AI Needs Ground Truth. It’s Finding It on Yelp. Homeowners are using AI to find contractors faster than ever. But AI still needs trusted information to decide which businesses to surface. That’s where Yelp comes in.  Its reviews, photos, and business information are integrated into platforms including ChatGPT, Apple Maps, Alexa+ and Bing. In fact, Yelp is the most organically cited home services discovery platform on ChatGPT, Gemini, Perplexity, and Google AI Mode. For contractors, that makes your Yelp presence increasingly important. A complete, current profile can help you: Build trust with homeowners Give AI accurate, up-to-date business information Strengthen your visibility across AI search Reach customers looking for a pro AI is changing how homeowners search. Make sure your business gives it something to find. See What Yelp Can Do   Shoulder Season is Predictable Seasonality catches many home service operators off guard because the slowdown feels sudden. In reality, the same patterns appear every year. Back-to-school season pulls away customers’ attention and spending, while mild weather gives HVAC systems fewer reasons to fail. Holidays create additional weeks when demand can fall below expectations. At Wilson, September is typically one of our two slowest months. Last year, however, October became our best month of the year. That kind of swing makes it difficult to manage staffing, cash flow, and revenue expectations if you treat every month the same. The preparation needs to start while business is still booming. During the summer, you should collect accurate contact information, build your membership base, and schedule future maintenance work. We often begin filling the September and October calendar a month or more in advance. You should also study your own historical numbers. Identify the weeks when demand usually drops, determine which services remain dependable, and establish realistic targets. Once you understand your seasonal patterns, the slowdown becomes something you can plan around instead of something that creates panic. What the Numbers Say About Shoulder Season The data shows how quickly the economics of a home service business can change between peak and shoulder season. At Wilson, an 18-month revenue trend shows September performing only slightly better than February and March. Last year, revenue then jumped roughly 50% from September to October, with October becoming the company’s best month of the year. Here are the other numbers that stand out: August was pacing toward Wilson’s first $4 million month. Portfolio revenue was growing approximately 15% to 16% year over year. Technicians may drop to roughly three calls per day during slower periods. Wilson uses up to 200 outbound calls per day to help fill the board. Wilson’s labor percentage ran three points higher than expected during July. That three-point difference can reduce EBITDA from the usual 22% to 23% range to approximately 19%. The trend is clear: record revenue does not automatically produce the healthiest margins. Lower-volume months can create stronger financial performance when teams convert carefully and control costs.   The Shoulder-Season Marketing Strategy When demand slows, the goal is to create more opportunities from the assets you already have. That requires a coordinated plan across your database, outbound team, offers and sales process. 1. Start With the Database Your database should become the center of your shoulder-season strategy. Every customer and lead who entered your system during busy season represents a future opportunity. Build targeted lists that include: Past customers due for maintenance Homeowners with aging equipment Customers who previously declined recommended work Leads who requested an estimate but never booked Unsold replacement estimates Membership customers who have not scheduled service Leads generated through Facebook, TikTok or other paid campaigns Do not treat an unsold lead as lost forever. You paid to generate that contact, and the homeowner had enough interest to request information. A different message, offer or point in time may be enough to restart the conversation. 2. Build a Consistent Outbound Rhythm Outbound should be a daily activity during shoulder season. At Wilson, we can make up to 200 outbound calls per day to uncover work that would otherwise remain hidden. Many homeowners already know something is wrong. The system may be making an unusual sound, performing inconsistently or showing signs of age. But because it still works, the customer continues putting off the call. Your team’s job is to reach that customer at the right time. Give CSRs a clear list, a simple reason for calling and a specific next step. A basic call structure could include: Remind the customer of their relationship with your company Reference the service, estimate or recommendation in their record Ask whether the issue has changed Explain the current appointment availability Present the relevant seasonal offer Ask directly if they would like to schedule Track attempts, conversations and booked appointments by list. This will show you which customer segments and messages generate the strongest return. 3. Use Offers to Create Urgency Shoulder-season promotions should give homeowners a reason to act before peak demand returns. Wilson has historically used BOGO-style equipment offers, including “get an air conditioner free” messaging, because similar promotions are common in the market. Other offer ideas include: Discounted tune-ups Equipment replacement specials 50% off an air conditioner Low-price tune-ups, including a $17 offer Maintenance promotions designed to fill future appointments The offer has to fit your economics and your team’s ability to convert the appointment. An aggressive tune-up price may generate calls, but it only works if technicians can thoroughly inspect the system, communicate what they find and present appropriate options. Push the offer through channels that already work for your business. This is a good time to increase activity on proven channels, such as Facebook lead ads, email and SMS. It is a risky time to depend on an untested campaign to rescue the month. 4. Plan at Least One Month Ahead Do not wait for an empty board to begin marketing. At Wilson, we start outbounding for September and October roughly a month in advance. During peak season, make sure your team is: Collecting accurate phone numbers and email addresses Recording equipment age and condition Documenting declined repairs Saving unsold estimates Enrolling customers in memberships Scheduling future maintenance before completing the current interaction Think like a dentist’s office. The next appointment should be scheduled before the customer leaves. The more future work you book during summer, the less pressure you will face when inbound demand falls. 5. Get More From Every Lead Leads become more valuable as demand declines. Your CSRs and technicians should have more time to slow down, ask better questions and present complete options. Monitor the metrics that reveal whether this is happening: Call booking rate Technician conversion rate Average ticket Estimate follow-up rate Revenue per lead Membership conversion rate Marketing cost per booked job Review these numbers frequently and coach around specific missed opportunities. If technicians are running only three calls per day, each appointment deserves their full attention. 6. Protect the Margin More revenue will not solve the problem if discounts, labor and marketing costs are uncontrolled. One company mentioned in a recent OAO podcast episode intentionally accepted a revenue decline from $818,000 to $678,000 while improving gross margin from roughly 39% to 40% up to 48%. During slower periods: Reduce unnecessary overtime Pause discretionary spending Concentrate budget on proven marketing channels Review discounts before approving them Avoid low-margin work that consumes limited capacity Watch labor as a percentage of revenue Track gross margin alongside top-line sales The objective is to fill the board with profitable work. A smaller month with strong conversion and disciplined spending can leave the business in a better position than a record month with weak margins.     No Long-Term Contracts. No 12-Month Commitments. Kick-start your marketing with a 90-day sprint from Service Scalers. Their team will help build a marketing machine designed to generate qualified leads and turn more searches into booked jobs. Start Your 90-Day Sprint     Where Shoulder-Season Plans Go Wrong Shoulder season becomes much harder when operators wait too long, chase the wrong metrics, or abandon opportunities they have already paid to generate. Stay aware of these potential mishaps: Waiting until the call board is empty to start outbound marketing Testing an entirely new channel out of desperation Giving up on leads after the first estimate or conversation Failing to record declined repairs and unsold estimates Using aggressive discounts without protecting gross margin Chasing revenue while labor and material costs rise     Start by identifying the leads and customers in your database who have not heard from you recently. Build an outbound campaign now so you can generate demand before the call board slows down.   The $1M Decisions Contractors Don’t Realize They’re Making The $1M Decisions Contractors Don’t Realize They’re Making Apple | Spotify | YouTube 👊 John   Disclosure: Some of the content and links in this newsletter are sponsored or affiliate links, which means we may receive payment or earn a commission if you click through or purchase. However, all opinions expressed are entirely my own.     Want More Owned and Operated? 📻 Listen to Owned and Operated on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple  📰 Subscribe to the JackQuisitions newsletter here 📰 Subscribe to the Entry & Exit newsletter here 🤝 Get your brand in front of 40,000+ home service business owners here     Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2026 Owned and Operated 1501 Commerce Drive Akron, Ohio 44240, United States Powered by beehiiv