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Support the Guardian Support us   Fund independent journalism 05/11/2026 UK interest rates expected to increase Plus: critical minerals, smart glasses, renewable energy Business live Bank of England expected to raise interest rates for first time in three years today Today’s headlines UK found to be ‘dangerously’ reliant on China for critical minerals needed for defence and AI Milburn review to call for jobs ’revolution’ for young people with disabilities UK government considers smart glasses ban over secret filming concerns Will Democrats’ midterms triumph put wind back in sails of the renewables sector? Elon Musk’s nearly half a billion dollars in midterms spending was a flop Ministers to target ‘wild west’ of e-bikes blocking pavements ‘It’s just vape shops, nail shops, charity shops’: can anything save the British high street? LIV Golf’s attempted relaunch collapses after new lead investor withdraws, reports say The agenda Predicting a central bank’s actions can be risky but there will certainly be surprise in the City of London today if the Bank of England does not raise interest rates at midday. The Bank is widely expected to announce its first increase in UK interest rates in more than three years. A quarter-point rise would take the Bank rate up to 4% from 3.75%. With inflation rising faster than the Bank’s target, most of its policymakers are expected to decide now is the moment to tighten monetary policy. This, they may hope, would dampen the risk that high energy costs spill over and push up the cost of other goods and services. The Bank has not increased borrowing costs since August 2023, when the Bank rate hit 5.25%. It will also be playing “catchup” with other central banks – rates have already risen in the US, Japan, the eurozone, Australia and Canada this year. Deutsche Bank analysts predict the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee will split 6-3 in today’s vote, with a majority voting for a rate increase to 4%. The committee is split between hawks (who want higher rates to fight inflation) and doves (who fear higher rates will hurt economic growth). Deutsche Bank also predicts the Bank’s latest economic forecasts will show inflation rising as high as 4.25% by the first quarter of 2027, along with an upgrade to the 2026 growth forecast to 1.4%. The Bank of England will be reassured to see that the oil price has tumbled this week. Brent crude fell through the $100 a barrel mark yesterday, hitting its lowest level in two months, and this morning is trading at about $95 a barrel. Traders appear to be concluding that Donald Trump may try to de-escalate the Middle East conflict after his Republican party were given a hammering in this week’s midterms. Today’s key events • 9am GMT: UK car sales report for October • 9.30am GMT: UK construction PMI for October • Noon GMT: Bank of England interest rate decision • 12.30pm GMT: Bank of England press conference • 1.30pm GMT: US jobless claims report We’ll be tracking all the main events throughout the day on our business live blog …   The Feast app: your most useful kitchen utensil Get inspired with more than 8,000 recipes from our world-class cooks and smart, exclusive features to make cooking a breeze. Download the Feast app   In focus Once it was a £1 hanger. Now it’s a £15 locker. Why do cloakrooms cost so much on a night out? Why pharma firms are going to Earth’s orbit in search of new cancer drugs ‘It brings soul into this sterile world’: the Birmingham clubbers fighting to save their patch – and Britain’s nightlife Farm workers are falling sick in a Kenyan horticultural town. Were they poisoned by pesticides? Trump promised a steel mill in this rural Iowa region. But is it all a midterm election ploy? Opinion & analysis After the US midterms, what will a lame duck Trump mean for the global economy? The Guardian view on EU ‘Made in Europe’ rules: a fatal blow to Brexiter delusions | Editorial How irrational are Labour’s plans for migrant workers? To find out, read the small print The great sleeping giant of America has awakened | Robert Reich Billions in revenue proves Fifa right on the World Cup – but only on things it cares about In case you missed it Don’t let Poundland owner maximise its return at our expense, suppliers say UK interest rates increase expected after services sector activity accelerates BMW warns on profits as it counts cost of plan for 8,000 job cuts CVS Health to split pharmacy chain from health insurance M&S boss bemoans last week’s budget as ‘whole lot of nothing’   When it comes to breaking news and live coverage of the events shaping the world, we think our journalism is second to none. 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