🏛️ Kevin McCarthy's jam

📺 Plus: Future of TV | Monday, January 02, 2023

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Instagram   Axios AM By Mike Allen · Jan 02, 2023 💡 Hello, holiday Monday! Weekday 1 for resolutions. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,292 words ... 5 minutes. Edited by Kate Nocera.     1 big thing: Kevin McCarthy's jam Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images   House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has begged countless lawmakers — and offered extraordinary concessions, including allowing members to easily fire him at any time — to secure the votes for speaker. Yet the vote is tomorrow, and McCarthy still doesn't have the votes. So he could end this week back where he started 16 years ago — as a rank-and-file lawmaker. Why it matters: Top members of his team tell me they're optimistic about pulling it out. But they can't point to an exact route — always a bad sign. What's happening: McCarthy released a proposed rules package yesterday that gave conservatives what they've been asking for. But in a letter of response, several hardliners still refused to commit. McCarthy's rules hand a knife to his skeptics, allowing for five to call a no-confidence vote to boot him at any time. "He's empowering every part of the conference," a top GOP aide told me. Between the lines: McCarthy has yielded to the right on ask after ask for weeks — ever since it was clear he was in trouble because the midterms gave him such a narrow majority. Yet even close allies privately say it's "hard to see a path" to the 218 votes McCarthy needs when the new Congress opens tomorrow, John Bresnahan reports in Punchbowl News AM. By the numbers: If the full House is voting, he can only lose four. Five conservatives have declared themselves "no" votes, and there's another five to 10 members McCarthy has to worry about. The GOP aide tells me 200+ members are firmly behind McCarthy. Dozens and dozens of them have declared themselves "only Kevin." The five conservatives have said they'll stick together. But it's not clear that's a blood pact. Some of their individual concerns could be satisfied in the frantic private horse-trading that went on over the Christmas break, and continues today. Reality check: You "can never underestimate how difficult it is for a member to publicly vote against their party leader for speaker," Bres notes. Read a 2-page summary of McCarthy's proposed rules ... Share this story.     2. 📺 Future of TV Data: MoffettNathanson. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals After one of the hardest years ever, it's only expected to get worse for traditional TV companies, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes: The ad market is continuing to slow, and cord-cutting is accelerating. Why it matters: The transition to streaming has wreaked havoc on the business models of major media firms, driving a new wave of consolidation, and threatening smaller channels' survival. State of play: Two-thirds of U.S. households pay for a cable, satellite or fiber TV subscription, down from 79% in 2017 and 85% in 2007. Not only is cord-cutting accelerating faster than expected, but so are drops in linear TV viewing broadly, including broadcast What's happening: Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery and NBCUniversal are all expected to sell or combine with other media entities in the next few years, to give their businesses the scale needed to possibly compete with tech giants Amazon, Netflix and Google. Smaller TV companies are also scrambling. Lionsgate is looking to spin off Starz. Paramount is beginning to bundle Showtime with its primary streaming service. AMC Networks is laying off 20% of its staff. 🔎 Between the lines: Most challenges plaguing TV giants stem from the false assumption that streaming would make up for linear TV losses. Paramount, Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney and Comcast don't expect their standalone streaming offerings to break even until at least 2024 or 2025. Data: YCharts. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals Media giants are having a particularly tough time convincing Wall Street that their streaming bets will eventually pay off. Despite surpassing expectations for new subscribers, Disney's stock cratered to its lowest level in 21 years last quarter, due to widening losses in its streaming division. The few firms that have opted not to enter the subscription streaming wars, including Fox Corp., have fared better with investors. 🏈 The migration of the country's biggest sports rights packages from linear TV networks to streaming will expedite the inevitable collapse of the cable bundle. The NFL last week said its coveted Sunday Ticket package will move to YouTube beginning next season. It's the second major NFL deal to move exclusively to a Big Tech firm, following the NFL's landmark "Thursday Night Football. 👀 What we're watching: Nearly every streamer has introduced an ad-supported streaming tier, in an effort to lure more subscribers with a cheaper rate. Some companies, including Warner Bros. Discovery, are beginning to license more of their programs to other TV distributors, after initially hoarding their own content to boost their own standalone services. Share this story ... Sign up for Sara Fischer's weekly Axios Media Trends.     3. 🏛️ Former chief warns Capitol still not secure Right: Steven Sund is sworn in before a Senate hearing in 2021. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP   Steven Sund — who was Capitol Police chief during the Capitol siege, and resigned shortly after — warns in a book out tomorrow, "Courage Under Fire," that many of the building's vulnerabilities remain unfixed. "Almost two years after the events of Jan. 6, the department is not in a better place or on a readier footing," Sund writes in an excerpt reported by The Washington Post's Carol Leonnig. "Hundreds of officers have left the department since Jan. 6 and many feel it is only going to get worse." Hear an audio excerpt.     A message from Instagram Explore 30+ Instagram tools helping teens have positive experiences     Teens' experiences on Instagram should be positive and supportive. That's why we have tools to help teens see less sensitive content and help them spend less time on our platform. Learn more about our tools and set them up with your teen today.     4. 🇧🇷 Lula sworn in Photo: Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters Brazil's comeback president, Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, celebrates his swearing-in yesterday by greeting supporters from an open-air Rolls in Brasilia. He vowed members of the right-wing administration of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro, will be held to account. 🐊 Bolsonaro has taken refuge in Orlando, and plans to stay in Florida for at least a month, the N.Y. Times reports (subscription).     5. ❄️ Crypto "ice age" Data: CoinGecko. Chart: Axios Visuals Crypto winters have come and gone, but "experts say the ferocity and scale of this downturn could end up leading to more of an ice age." —The Washington Post     6. 📊 Inflation fears across spectrum Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios   AP and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research are out with a poll asking Democrats, independents and Republicans their top priorities for the government to work on in 2023. Inflation and the economy were the only issues near the top of all three lists: Democrat's top 5: Environment/climate change Gun issues Economy (general) Inflation Education Independents' top 5: Inflation Economy (general) Unemployment/jobs Immigration Health care reform Republicans' top 5: Immigration Inflation Economy (general) Crime/violence Gas prices/oil/energy costs Read the report.     7. 🕊️ Pope lies in state Photo: Ciro De Luca/Reuters Tens of thousands of people filed into St. Peter's Basilica today to pay respects to former Pope Benedict XVI at the start of three days of lying in state ahead of his funeral, Reuters reports. Benedict's body was moved in a procession just before dawn through the Vatican Gardens from the monastery where he lived, to a spot in front of the main altar of Christendom's largest Church. Nuns read the Vatican City newspaper L'Osservatore Romano in St. Peter's Square yesterday. Photo: Antonio Masiello/Getty Images     8. 👑 What Harry told Anderson Photo: CBS News Anderson Cooper talks to Prince Harry on "60 Minutes" next Sunday, ahead of the publication of his memoir, "Spare," out a week from today. In a clip released this morning, the prince says heatedly that he took his issues with the royal family public to combat palace leaks: "[E]very single time I've tried to do it privately, there have been briefings and leakings and planting of stories against me and my wife." "You know, the family motto is: 'Never complain, never explain.' But it's just a motto. And it doesn't really hold," Harry adds: They will feed, or have a conversation with, the correspondent. And that correspondent will literally be spoon-fed information and write the story. And at the bottom of it, they will say that they've reached out to Buckingham Palace for comment. But the WHOLE STORY is Buckingham Palace commenting. ... [T]here becomes a point when silence is betrayal. Watch the 60-sec. clip.     A message from Instagram Setting up daily time limits can help teens spend less time online     Instagram's daily time limits let parents say how long their teens can spend on the platform once supervision is set up. The impact: Teens can spend time online more intentionally. Set up daily time limits and learn more about the 30+ tools that can help teens have a positive experience on Instagram.   📨 Thanks for sharing your holiday with us. Please invite your friends to sign up. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. 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