January 3, 2023

By German Lopez

Good morning. Last year's democratic wins could have big implications for 2023.

Nancy Pelosi handed Volodymyr Zelensky a flag after his speech to Congress last month.Kenny Holston/The New York Times

An optimistic trend

Imagine if the U.S. and its allies had reacted less aggressively to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Without Western weapons to bolster its defenses, Ukraine could have fallen. Without Western sanctions, Russia might have felt little economic pressure. Such inaction would have sent a message: Western powers won't stand up for other democracies.

At one point, that scenario seemed plausible. After all, it's what happened when Russia illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008.

Why am I writing about this now? Because the West's enduring rally around Ukraine exemplifies an important trend from 2022 that could influence future global events: "This was the year liberal democracy fought back," as Janan Ganesh wrote in The Financial Times.

For years, democracies have become less representative. Some have fallen into authoritarian rule. Freedom House, which tracks the health of the world's democracies, has called the decline a "long democratic recession." But in 2022, small-d democrats fought back not just in Ukraine but also in Brazil, the U.S. and even authoritarian countries like Iran and China.

It's far too early to declare 2022 a turning point. Yet democracy experts, who are often a pessimistic group, are feeling more optimistic. "I tend to be the skunk at the garden party," said Michael Abramowitz, president of Freedom House. "But I do think the story of the last year has been, if hopeful isn't the right word, at least more mixed."

Today's newsletter will look at how 2022 gave democracy a boost and the potential ramifications for the world.

Fighting back

In several countries, people stood up against antidemocratic forces that had grown for years.

In Brazil, former President Jair Bolsonaro, elected in 2018, initially suggested that he would reject the results if he lost re-election. But after he was defeated, Bolsonaro accepted a peaceful transition to the presidency of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was sworn in on Sunday. Bolsonaro also criticized what he called an attempted "terrorist act" after police stopped one of his supporters from setting off a bomb in Brasília.

In Iran, protests have continued for months against the country's authoritarian government after a 22-year-old woman died in the custody of the morality police. They are the longest-running anti-government protests since the Islamic revolution of 1979, according to the BBC.

In China, resentment over the country's strict zero-Covid policies spilled over into unusually widespread protests that at times questioned the legitimacy of Xi Jinping's rule. The Chinese government responded with a crackdown but also eased the Covid policies, partially giving in to the public's demands.

The demonstrations also revealed something bigger: Chinese propaganda has long argued that the country's one-party model is more effective and efficient than the competitive systems of Western democracies. But China's handling of Covid and the resulting economic downturn and public outcry show how the government blunders and causes big crises.

The U.S. avoided some potential threats to democracy, too. Election deniers who lost midterm races accepted the results. Donald Trump, who continues to falsely question the outcome of the 2020 election, also saw his political prospects damaged after many of his endorsed candidates lost in the midterms.

Looking ahead

One good year does not mean that the global democratic recession is over, experts cautioned.

With support for Ukraine, "we are now seeing a fatigue," said Jennifer McCoy, a political scientist at Georgia State University. Westerners could pull back support if it means dealing with higher energy prices for much longer, she added. "It is a question: How long will populations continue to sacrifice for this cause?"

There are still other points of concern. India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, has overseen a deterioration in civil liberties, and the country's independent news media has slowly collapsed. Indonesia passed a law last month restricting free speech. Israel's new government could threaten judicial independence. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban won re-election after manipulating the rules in his favor. Coup attempts in Peru and Guinea-Bissau also exposed the fragility of democratic rule.

But given the past few years of bad news, even a mixed year can be a welcome reprieve. "It was a much better year than it could have been — but from a very low bar," said Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at Carnegie's Democracy, Conflict and Governance Program.

It's hard to say where any of this will go. But 2022 showed that democrats can fight back.

Related: A slice of the U.S. electorate broke with its own voting history to reject extremist Republican candidates — at least partly out of concern for the political system.

Continue reading the main story

THE LATEST NEWS

Congress

Representative Kevin McCarthy, left.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the Republican leader, is struggling to lock down the votes he needs to become House speaker today.
Who could succeed if McCarthy fails? These are the Republicans to watch.
Nancy Pelosi, the outgoing speaker, leaves a legacy that will be difficult to match.
Brazilian authorities say they will revive a 2008 fraud case against Representative-elect George Santos.

N.F.L.

Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest after being hit during a game last night.Joshua A. Bickel/Associated Press

Damar Hamlin, a 24-year-old safety for the Buffalo Bills, is in critical condition after suffering cardiac arrest during a Monday-night game, the team said.
Medical personnel revived Hamlin's heartbeat, the Bills said.
The game — against the Cincinnati Bengals — was postponed. Read the latest on The Athletic.

MORNING READS

Juan TamarizIbai Acevedo for The New York Times

Maestro: He made Spain the magic capital of the world.

Astronomy: Expect solar eclipses this year. (Sync your calendar to never miss one.)

Relationship quiz: How strong are your bonds?

Alt-country music: Margo Price has a contrarian streak.

Cloud storage: Keep a copy of your memories.

Advice from Wirecutter: Browse the most popular kitchen tools.

Lives Lived: Jeremiah Green was one of the founding members of Modest Mouse, an indie rock band known for its textured and wide-ranging sound. Green died at 45.

SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETIC

The 70-point club: The Cavaliers star Donovan Mitchell became the sixth N.B.A. player to score 70 or more points in a contest with his 71-point, 11-assist outing against the Bulls.

Cotton Bowl: Tulane pulled off a last-minute comeback win over U.S.C. and sealed the best season-to-season turnaround in F.B.S. history.

Continue reading the main story

ARTS AND IDEAS

Jon Bois said he was "making sports documentaries for people who don't watch sports."Lila Barth for The New York Times

Statistics as riveting cinema

The writer-director Jon Bois makes documentaries about seemingly unremarkable sports teams, but his films stand out. They're full of graphs, charts and diagrams, bordering on scientific, Calum Marsh writes in The Times. Bois hopes to appeal to viewers who don't watch a lot of sports.

"I was one of the weird kids who actually liked high-school algebra," Bois told The Times. "The ability to condense sports into a bar graph or a pie chart or a scatter plot — in a way, you can watch a thousand games in 10 seconds. It's like a little time warp."