 | | Jim Amrhein | Reckoning today from Vancouver, BC... Day One of the Agora Financial Investment Symposium
Dear Daily Reckoning Reader,
Some may argue that it’s the gun, the computer, the Internet, the mapping of the human genome, or the invention of the Twinkie...
But in my opinion, the airplane is human history’s single greatest innovation.
I’ve been up in a lot of different types of aircraft — even an aerobatics plane. But ironically, even in all my hunting trips to the wilds of Africa, Maine, Texas, and more, I’ve never been in a bona-fide "bush plane."
Until yesterday.
That’s when I found myself awaiting takeoff in one the world’s most legendary bush planes: A DeHavilland Beaver, 1950s vintage, fitted with pontoons. 
A light drizzle fell on the windshield as the plane rocked gently in the lapping waves of Vancouver Harbour. The pilot murmured something into his boom mike.
Then, with a flipping of switches and pumping of levers — and a long, whining jolt of starter — he coaxed the massive, nine-cylinder Pratt & Whitney engine to life.
Like all air-cooled motors, it’s a cold-blooded beast, and the pilot deftly feathers the mixture to keep it idling as we cast off from the dock.
That’s when things got wild.
If you’ve ever drag-raced on a Harley Sportster — one of those 1200cc V-twin models that rumbles and rattles your fillings loose...
You’ve felt roughly one fifth of the effect of the short-takeoff capabilities the stout, barrel-chested Beaver is so renowned for.
The 450 horsepower pushrod radial howls and clatters, the plane starts pitching and surging as it plows through the choppy water, pressing you back in the seat...
And then you’re airborne, climbing at what seems an impossibly steep rate. Your ears pop like Rice Krispies, and all you can see is sky.
We level off at the mouth of Burrard Inlet, at around 925 feet. I know this because I was sitting in the cramped co-pilot’s seat of the Beaver’s utilitarian cockpit, grinning like the Cheshire Cat in headphones.
On short notice, I’d been able to arrange a ride-along on what’s known as the "mail run" tour that Vancouver’s Harbour Air offers from time to time. They call it that because it doubles as a multi-purpose flight — cargo, mail, package, passengers, whatever — that services the dozens of islands and inlets to the south and west, on and around Vancouver Island.
Today’s flight involves two stops in remote locations, to pick up and discharge both passengers and packages. And maybe it’s because my head’s focused on the theme of this year’s Agora Financial Investment Symposium...
But everywhere I looked during this 1.5-hour tour, I saw the power of human innovation.
From the suspended span of the awesome Lion’s Gate Bridge, to the ingenious raft rigs that allow one boat to tow hundreds of logs through the open water, to the immense ferryboats that service the area, to the purpose-built Beaver herself...
There was abundant evidence of the myriad ways in which the people that live in this environment have improvised, adapted, and overcome the challenges of climate, geography, and commerce.
And that — like the sky and the mountains and the water below — was a beautiful thing to behold.
But now it’s time to get down to it. It’s opening day of Agora Financial’s 2012 Innovate or Die: Empire at a Turning Point Investment Symposium.
The exhibitors are all in place behind their stacks of brochures, the hustle and bustle of registration is out of the way, and attendees by the hundred are filing into the British Columbia Ballroom...
It’s 10 minutes ’til kick-off time, and as usual, the atmosphere’s electric.
Back down to Earth — and down to business
I thought I knew a good bit about the Irish Elk.
That’s what layman like me call megalocerus giganteus, an extinct species of giant European deer with the largest antlers of any cervid that ever lived.
I’ve seen skeletons of these moose-sized deer in natural history museums — they’re incredible. They died out not long after the Ice Age ended, and I’d always assumed it was because of natural climate change, competition from new species, or something along those lines...
 But it wasn’t until Agora Financial’s Investment Director (and event MC) Eric Fry took the stage at 1 o-clock sharp that I found out what really killed off the Irish Elk.
According to Fry, the beast’s antlers got so big and cumbersome in an effort to impress females of the species...
That it developed bone malnourishment problems — since all the nutrients from its food were going toward antler growth — and perished from existence.
The moral of the story?
No, it isn’t that women will be the death of you...
It’s that when things get too big and cumbersome to adapt and innovate — whether it’s animals, enterprises, or empires — they die.
And with that setting the tone, the event’s first speaker took the stage.
Niall Ferguson — "What we’re seeing is the end of western predominance..."
What a way to get the party started...
This year marks the first time that Harvard professor (and Stanford and Oxford Fellow, too) Niall Ferguson has spoken at the Symposium.
And I, for one, hope it’s not the last.
That’s because, in just one 40-minute presentation, he revealed exactly why The West is in the precarious position it’s in right now...
 AND why the rest of the world is now home to the vast bulk of the development, innovation, and real economic growth on Earth.
The frightening truth is very much like Eric’s Irish Elk analogy.
With chart after chart hammering his point home through comparisons of growth, public debt, GDP, and more, Ferguson lays out a plain case for what he calls "The end of western predominance."
The problem, he says, is the modern Keynesian tendency of western democracies to try to lift their way out of economic malaise with public spending of printed money...
A policy that’s leading to a "great re-convergence" between per-capita GDPs of the major players of The West and Asia, according to the distinguished scholar and author.
And with the U.S. clearly on an unsustainable fiscal path — even according to its own government’s projections — of ever-increasing interest payments on its accrued debt...
Such a "re-convergence" seems inevitable.
Now, that explains why the U.S. and Europe are crumbling. But it doesn’t explain why much of the rest of the world is booming...
"We are just four years away from China taking over the United States as the world’s largest economy," says Ferguson.
But the big question is WHY?
Ironically, it’s because they’re finally doing what The West did to make itself the dominant economic force on Earth for the last 500 years.
According to Ferguson, there are six major principles that made the U.S., Canada, and Europe into dominant economic forces over this time period.
Now, I don’t have the time or space to catalog them for you here (nor do I have Ferguson’s skill at explaining them) — but they’re things you’ll recognize from having lived in the U.S....
And they’re the very same principles the rest of the world is now adopting to knock us off the top of the heap, if we don’t do something drastic, very soon.
You can get up to speed on these — plus Ferguson’s "two clouds of uncertainty" hanging over the developed world, the six questions The West needs to ask itself right now, and tons more...
In our CD and MP3 audio recordings — or high-definition video (which is the only way to see all of Ferguson’s incredible charts and graphs) coverage of this event.
I’ll give you the specifics on how to get those in a minute.
But right now, let’s shift gears to our next speaker...
Juan Enriquez — "What is the cost of NOT acting?"
A favorite speaker from last year’s Symposium, Juan’s the visionary CEO of Biotechonomy, LLC and the Managing Director of Excel Management.
In other words, he’s one of the most knowledgeable people in the world when it comes to the miraculous developments in biotech...
 But today, he’s talking about something we all can relate to: The ponderous (and even deadly) nature of the bloated U.S. government. Specifically, the Food and Drug Administration.
A lot of what Enriquez said actually made me angry. And I know I wasn’t alone.
Why?
Because he painted a compelling picture — with plenty of charts, graphs, and photos in support — of an FDA that instead of protecting us, may actually be killing us by the millions...
After some amusing anecdotes about how to tell the good guys from the bad guys in this scenario, he smacked us all upside the head with some incredible facts about the advancements in medicine, followed by one very simple question:
First, the facts. According to Enriquez:
- Today, it costs 100,000 times less than it once did to create a three-dimensional map of a disease-causing protein
- There are about 300 times more of these disease proteins in databases now than in times past
- The number of drug-like chemicals per researcher has increased 800 times
- The cost to test a drug versus a protein has decreased ten-fold
- The technology to conduct these tests has gotten much quicker
Now here’s Enriquez’s simple question:
"Given all these advances, why haven’t we cured cancer yet? Why haven’t we cured Alzheimer’s? Why haven’t we cured Parkinson’s?"
The answer likely lies in the bloated process and downright hostile-to-innovation climate for FDA drug approvals in this day and age...
According to Enriquez, this climate has gotten so bad that major pharmaceuticals companies have begun shifting their primary focus from R&D of new drugs to increased marketing of existing drugs — and mergers and acquisitions.
In fact, Enriquez says that were it a drug, ordinary table salt would not pass the FDA’s unreasonably stringent approval process!
And people may be dying by the millions because of it.
However, since no one studies the loss of life associated with NOT approving certain drugs — only the potential loss of life that goes with approving drugs...
We have no idea of where the "crossover point" is between the number of people excessive drug regulation saves, and the number of people increased approvals might harm. Because they don’t measure the cost of not acting.
Therefore, no real pressure can be brought to bear against the FDA for their hostility to potentially life-saving innovations in pharmaceuticals.
According to Enriquez, this is costing us more than just lives...
"I think we could increase the GNP of this country in a very substantial way... if we allow entrepreneurs a little bit more room, and we force regulators to answer the question... What is the cost of not doing anything?"
Sounds right to me. But don’t let that convince you — check out the recordings of this event and decide for yourself (Note: You can see all of Juan’s most pertinent presentation slides in the new high-definition video coverage option).
And weighing in with yet more on the medical front is our next speaker...
Patrick Cox — "We’re unprepared for the explosion in life spans..."
Patrick is a perennial favorite speaker among Symposium attendees. And it’s easy to see why. He tells us about great economic truths, medical miracles that are right around the corner (or here already)...
And his presentations always feature multiple pictures of the world’s most beautiful women — like Salma Hayek, Angelina Jolie, and lots more!
This year’s presentation didn’t disappoint in that department, but what it really did was open our eyes to two things...
The very real, natural cures for everything under the sun that already exist. And the magnitude of the healthcare costs that await the U.S. if we continue to ignore them in favor of expensive pharmaceuticals that don’t work.
But fair warning: More than any other presentation at the Symposium, Patrick’s typically relies more on graphics, PowerPoint slides — and even film clips.
Today’s presentation was no exception. It started with a five-minute BBC film that plotted 200 years worth of data for every region in the world onto a graph showing relative wealth, and relative health...
It showed how dramatic the changes have been in the health and life span of the various peoples of the Earth — especially since 1900.
And while great for those who’ve lived longer, healthier lives, it’s not so great for the bottom line of a nation.
According to Patrick, the typical person tallies up 50% of their lifetime healthcare expenditures in the last 5% of life...
And with aging Baby Boomers representing a huge proportion of today’s population in the U.S. and other places (like Europe), it doesn’t take a genius to see where all the money’s going nowadays.
"Demographics is destiny," says Patrick. "Greece would be fine today, if they still had the same percentage of young and old people, and people lived as short as they did [in 1900]."
But it’s not just The West that’s facing major demographic shifts that’ll soon change the face of their economies...
A lot of developed nations — like the U.K, Japan, France, Russia, and other — nations aren’t even breeding at a replacement rate. That means their populations are going to be skewing a lot older, very soon. And China’s in a similar boat.
In a nutshell, it’s a global demographic health crisis in the making. There are more and more old folks living longer, and not enough younger folks of prime earning age to foot their bills...
So what’s the solution?
According to Patrick, a handful of small, innovative companies hold the key to low-cost, non-toxic, natural solutions to the biggest health problems humans face. Things like obesity, diabetes, fibrosis, cardiovascular disease, inflammation — even aging itself. He names six of these companies in his presentation, in fact.
However, it’s 11:14PM right now, and I’ve got a midnight deadline on this dispatch. So I don’t have the time or space to go into all the details on these here...
But you can get them first-hand in our special event coverage — either on audio MP3s and CDs, or in new high-definition video (I’d strongly suggest the HD video for Patrick’s presentation — most of the best stuff is in the charts and graphics).
Yes, I’m short on time and space. But it wouldn’t be right to sign off without at least touching on one more of today’s speakers — a perennial favorite...
Rick Rule — "The good news is that markets work."
I could never NOT cover resource investing guru Rick Rule. He’s almost Bonner-esque, in my opinion.
Right off the bat in his presentation today, Rule promised to “bring us back down to Earth” after several hours spent in the futuristic land of biotech innovations.
That’s exactly what he did, too — first by reminding us of the $85 trillion in current outstanding and future unfunded debt we in the U.S. face...
And second, by reminding us that even though a lot of us (especially those we elect) want to believe that the market doesn’t really work, and that we should continue to spend money we don’t have...
The fact is, the market does work and it will get square, one way or another.
“The fact that the system... is starting to wobble as we speak,” says Rule, “has to do with the fact that we really wonder who is going to be stuck with this $85 trillion liability.”
Rule went on to say that the government’s solution to economic problems is to add liquidity. But what we really need is to add solvency.
Of course, he followed this with a discussion of the resource “supercycle” bull market that we’re still in, despite recent dips in commodities...
Plus an explanation of the three types of constraints that affect resource supplies — especially political constraints...
Plus some sobering facts about Asian commodities consumption that would have any reasonable investor reaching for their Scottrade password...
Plus the reasons why there are still some great opportunities in the tanking “junior” resource sector right now...
Plus why your chances to get rich on “event driven” commodities situations are very good right now...
Plus the reasons why the resource “secular bull market” of the next few years will be extremely — perhaps historically — volatile.
He said a lot more than this, too. Rick crams more moneymaking epiphanies into 40 minutes than most “experts” can put in 400 pages.
But like I said, I can’t put it ALL into these dispatches. There simply isn’t enough time in a day.
And even though I’m sorry I couldn’t give any details on Dan Denning’s “Platypus Rex” macro-economics speech (which was fascinating)...
Or on Biotime, Inc. CEO Mike West’s great speech on the newest stem-cell therapies for age-related degenerative disease (very graphics-intensive, FYI)...
You can get these for yourself, right now, at discounted event-only pricing.
Here’s the deal: MP3 audio recordings are yours for $99. If you want audio CDs as well, it’s $149 for the pair...
And our new high-definition video coverage (which is the only way you’ll get the full impact and information of these presentations), will only set you back $199.
Just click here to choose your preferred option now.
Whew. 11:54. Just made it. Chat with you again tomorrow...
Yours Truly,
Jim Amrhein
Roving Reporter
P.S. I was in a rush to make deadline on this — so in case I didn’t make it clear: When you buy our new platinum packaged, high-definition video coverage of this year’s Symposium for just $199, you’ll ALSO get the CD and MP3 audio versions as well. Just click anywhere in blue to order now, while the special event pricing is still in effect! |
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