| | Center Stage | | |  Over the last few days the Standard & Poor 500 (ES) has been falling. Some blame the insane actions of the new PM in Japan and his policy of QE on steroids; that is to say, after its initial stock-boosting effect, it is now slamming markets. The Japanese QE (money printing out of thin air) had an initial effect of rallying stocks as the cheap money fueled investment mania. That didn’t last forever, however, and as the Yen reversed higher, hedge funds sold their assets (like today) because exiting said trades would become more expensive. The beggar-thy-neighbor currency policy hasn’t worked out quite like the Corporatists had expected. Although the Yen saga will still be in play Friday, the monthly unen-joy-ment number of the USA will take center stage. The questions will be… -
If the data are much better than expected; how long will it take for the HFT algo-bots to buy everything? -
If the data are as expected; how long will it take for the HFT algo-bots to buy everything? -
If the data are worse than expected; how long will it take for the HFT algo-bots to buy everything? Said another way, one must wonder when the Federal Reserve Bank will announce more stimulus for the wealthy. The bearded one must not let a rising Yen, rising interest rates, and falling stock market interrupt his plans to corner the market. Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear “experts.” | | ---Larry Levin |
| | | |  | | | | 
In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Chief Market Strategist Alan Knuckman provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates. |
| | | | | | | | | Congratulations to Todd Cross Congratulations to our Student of the Day Todd Cross who made $4600 trading the ES on Wedensday. Todd had intensive training with Patrick Assalone for three days and is already on the fast track to becoming successful. Congratulations Todd! | | | NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial. |
| | | | | OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary | ---Steven Lee / Michael Shorr | The Japanese market finally took a rest today, trading in a relatively tight range and finishing up the day just down -0.8%. Now the index is down 19% from the highs made on May 23rd. Shares in China also fell, for the sixth day in a row, on fears about a slowdown in their economy. The Bank of England and the ECB both kept their interest rates unchanged as widely expected. The policy statement from the ECB: "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.50%, 1.00% and 0.00% respectively. " What was more important to market observers was Mario Draghi's press conference after the central bank's meeting. At the press conference Draghi says the ECB sees 2013 GDP at -0.6%. He sees downside risks to economic outlook. Monetary policy will be "accommodative as long as needed" but did note that sentiment indicators showed some improvement. All eyes will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls reporttomorrow morning. Initial claims did come out this morning in line. The report is set for release at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Another weak jobs report would likely fuel concerns that March’s disappointing payrolls figure was not a blip but a sign of true weakness in the U.S. labor market. The consensus forecast is that employers added 145k jobs in April, including 160k gains in the private sector and 15k cuts by federal, state and local governments. With very little going on today as all eyes focus on tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll report. Let us look at tomorrow's report. The ADP number actually does not have a strong correlation to NFP historically (insert conspiracy theory here), so looking at that data from earlier this week is pretty pointless. Where there is a correlation (R^2=~0.90) is the Non-manufacturing (i.e., Services) ISM. If this correlation follows through tomorrow, hopes for a recovery any time soon will dwindle. The market is looking for +145k jobs created. The Employment component of the Index decreased 1.9 percentage points to 50.1 percent, indicating growth in employment for the 10th consecutive month, barely. Anything below 50 indicates a contracting employment sector. The question will be how bad will the news have to be to really put this market in a tailspin? How good will the number have to be to bring back the specter of the "taper"? We are not even considering what the ramifications of what is going on in Japan and Europe will have on the global markets. Stay tuned! |
| | | | | FOREX: Currency Spotlight | ---Ed Moya | | | The stop-loss run struck back yesterday. In what started off as your typical dollar sell-off day on a more optimistic Mario Draghi, a sharp decline on U.S. Treasury yields helped trigger a collapse in the USDJPY exchange rate and thus pulling the plug on a countless number of stop losses. Mounting fears for a weaker jobs numbers solidified the QE trade and the initial rally in high-beta took most currency pairs to significant extremes. The typical calm trading day before NFP Friday was anticipated by many. Many still anticipate that the Fed will taper in September and we feel that either a miss today or next month will push that idea back towards the end of the year and possibly into next. The markets will now eagerly await action and comment from the BOJ. Japanese stocks are experiencing significant falls and yen has rallied tremendously. Volatility is picking up and traders should be prepared for violent moves over the next couple of weeks. |
| | | | | STOCKS: Watch List | ---Charles Moon | | | | At the opening bell today, we pressed higher and held these levels until mid morning. Then we faced a very swift and aggressive slide down to the lows of the day. These lows tested the 1600.00 mark in the S&P 500, and sure enough that level was defended. The rejection shot the market into positive territory, and from there we climbed to close at the highs of the day. That was a key level in the S&P 500 here in the short term, and we are now on notice it will be defended. If we happen to break this level, the drop should be fast and severe. This level was a hurdle on the way up, and when we broke it launched up 20 points. This is a key level and it needs to be respected as such from investors. This is key since we have the nonfarm payroll numbers coming out tomorrow. The market is watching with close anticipation, and the report can cause a very volatile session tomorrow that can swing the market into a deep slide or a steep climb. Since the news comes out before the open, look to pre-market trading to get a good gauge on market direction. Ciena Corp(CIEN) surprised the market by showing a profit, when a loss was expected. This shot the stock up over 17% today. It was able to withstand the drop as it help onto its gains, and when the market rallied into the close, the stock ran up with it. If there is no steep pullback during tomorrows trading session, this might be a great short term buy. I caution on trying to jump in on the highs, as I would look for a pullback to enter. If it can withstand aggressive selling once again, it can make another push higher early on. Expect profit taking to come into play later on in the day. With much anticipation surrounding the nonfarm payroll numbers, it might be a difficult trading session for new investors. The volatility is kicking into high gear, as we have seen triple digits swings happen almost daily the last 2 weeks. Look for this to continue tomorrow, and continue to look short term. We are seeing gains wiped out quickly, and rallies off the lows straight to the highs. Keep taking profits early, as it is better to be early then to be late. Open Position: INTC Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN ADBE FB TSLA GRPN CTXS CSCO NTAP JBL BAC C PRU WFC GS JPM MS CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE AIG LULU LNKD DIS KORS COH FOSL CROX STZ NKE UA CHKP JNPR POT GMCR HOG YUM LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM TSL FSLR JASO |
| | | | | FUTURES: Technical Data | | | | | ES 1615.25 / 1603.25 POC… 1608.00 YM 14985 / 14887 NQ 2944.50 / 2920.00 | |
| | | | | COMMODITIES: Play of the Day | ---Patrick Assalone | | | | Gold futures closed at their highest level since mid-May as a sharp
drop in the dollar, particularly the euro and the yen, and weakness in U.S. equities helped lure investors to the precious metal. Based on our educational methodology, we are looking for long entries above the contract high at 1423.30 for a breakot signal or at the bottom of the High Volume Area at 1385.00. |
| |  | | is a leading investment education firm that empowers traders to achieve and surpass their financial goals. More than 50,000 students have used Larry Levin's proven techniques for powerful results. | | | | | | IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our website shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Advantage LLC provides only training and educational information. By accessing any Trading Advantage content, you agree to be bound by the terms of service. Click here to review the terms of services. DAYTRADING involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those talked about in our site. | | 
|
No comments:
Post a Comment
Keep a civil tongue.