Beating Your Bear Market Mindset

It's no surprise that the latest round of new all-time highs have spooked quite a few investors… Tuesday, July 23rd, 2013     Beating Your Bear Market Mindset   Seeking safety in stocks The real meaning of all-time highs… Plus: No guarantees for gold   Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD... Greg Guenthner "Many people I speak to see the stock market as a place to get burned," writes an observant reader. "They are very resistant to reinvesting. They want SAFE." I've noticed this, too. It's a byproduct of a decade of turmoil. Investing form 2000-2012 wasn't easy. You had the dot com bust. Then the housing bubble. Then the worst market crash in decades thanks to a crippling financial crisis. So yeah, you could say that investors are bit hesitant to jump back into the fray. It's also no surprise that the latest round of new all-time highs has spooked quite a few investors… But when we turn to the numbers, there's no reason to fear new highs just yet. S&P Capital IQ Chief Equity Strategist Sam Stovall has the stats to prove it. Stovall analyzed the 11 bull markets since 1949. Each of them lasted an average of 57 months. And (here's the kicker) 7% of the trading days within the bull markets set all-time closing highs. I suspect this infatuation with new highs will vanish in a few months. It just won't be interesting news anymore. The only reason new highs are compelling right now is because the market has finally clawed its way out of a massive, decade-long secular bear. Here's Stovall with more (via Business Insider): "During the past few weeks, the financial media has constantly reminded investors that the S&P 500 has recorded successive all-time closing highs. They also make it sound as if we should enjoy these days while they last, for this bull market is therefore likely to end in the very near future. I don't know why they say that, other than to instill fear and thereby ensure that investors stay tuned. History, on the other hand, shows that new highs are typical in a maturing bull market." Snap out of your bear market mindset. Stocks are proving exceptional returns this year. It's high time you answered their call…     Rude Numbers Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses   1.2% was the drop yesterday in existing home sales, skidding to an annual rate of 5.08 million. Higher mortgage rates have made a bit of a dent in the market, but sales are still up 15.2% from last year. $6.74 marks the spot for Taiwan-based microchip maker Himax Technologies following news that Google plans to make a big investment. Google will take a 6.3% stake in the Himax Display subsidiary to expand production capacity and capabilities of the small company that was responsible for Google Glass displays. $8 dropped from Gold's spot price this morning as it consolidates following yesterday's big run. The metal surged 3% to hit a one-month high of $1,339 Monday afternoon… 2 of the past 15 trading days have ended lower for the S&P. After yesterday's small gain, the broad market has traded higher four days in a row. Futures are up slightly heading into the bell… $106 is where you'll find crude this morning, down $2 from its Monday highs…     Rude Trends When to Buy... When to Sell   "You are right," offers a complimentary reader. "But gold's exact trajectory is anyone's guess and it is a hard call to make. I agree with you and say there is some time to go… but it will eventually take off like a bomb and hit the stratosphere." Maybe... But remember, there are no guarantees. You say that gold will surely take off. Clearly, there's no doubt in your mind that it will eventually overtake its 2011 highs. But what if it doesn't? What's your contingency plan? A large majority of the analysts and investors who have defended gold during its drop have presented its future comeback as a foregone conclusion. Gold has to go back up, they tell us. There is no debate. There are no other possibilities. That should worry you… Gold is in a bear market right now. The path of least resistance is lower. I don't know exactly how it will play out, but I'm not expecting a trend-changing push higher from here. Don't jump into an oversold bounce early and get left holding the bag… [Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]     Ignore At Your Own Peril Today's Must Read Links   The history books will remember three key players in the history of gold… Make 300% in 60 days? Yes says this "rude" analyst. See his proof and try his service for free, right here. 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