| Friday, July 26th, 2013 | | | | | |
 | | | | Don't Run Scared from All-Time Highs | | | - Small stocks win big
- Is this a market for lemmings?
- Plus: How to "stay smug" through market turmoil
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| | | Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...
 | | Greg Guenthner | It was another big, bullish day for the Russell 2000 small-cap index yesterday.
While the broad market struggled to keep its head above water, small stocks were at it again, digging themselves out of a hole for a 1% gain on the day and new all-time closing highs. It's tough to feel too bearish in a market where riskier stocks are leading us higher. All-time highs lead to clear skies above.
There it is again: all-time highs. It feels like we just can't escape that phrase...
Of course, a lot of investors are afraid that buying the highs is for lemmings and idiots. They don't want to get caught up in another devastating flush. It's better to not even venture into the markets, they reason. After all, hanging onto no gains at all feels lot better than losing your shirt.
I told you earlier this week that the latest round of new all-time highs has spooked quite a few investors. But that's only because most market participants haven't studies their history books. If they did, they would know that 127 new all-time highs have been made during the average secular bull market since 1949.
During the 1982-1987 bull, the market notched 152 all-time highs. Since the market turned higher in 2009, we've only seen 22 new all-time highs so far. That's even less than the average all-time high tally from cyclical bulls. Any way you slice it, new highs aren't generally a cause for concern…
You can ignore any bearish discussion about new highs for now. Instead, watch the market as it consolidates at these levels. Buying opportunities abound for traders and investors alike…
| | |  | | | | Rude Numbers | Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses
| | | | 250 | workers received pink slips at BlackBerry. The troubled company outlined the layoffs in its R&D and manufacturing departments as part of major turnaround efforts. | | $17 billion | were added to Facebook's market-cap intraday. Mobile growth led the social network to beat earnings estimates and hit a mid-day high of $34 – a 28% gain on the day… | | $96 | buys one Bitcoin this morning. The crypto currency has not seen triple-digit prices since July 12. | | 1,677 | is where you'll find S&P futures early this morning, down about seven points from yesterday afternoon… | | $1,323 | marks the spot for gold futures after another back-and-forth session. | | | | | | | | Rude Trends | When to Buy... When to Sell
| | | "Since I believe you are preaching to the opposite of the choir, I will state early that if gold drops significantly lower from here, you should receive tremendous approval and applause from us," offers a reader. "However, if (when) you are terribly wrong, you should become very, very humble as you will have caused some of your loyal followers to miss a real opportunity."
That's fair. Almost…
But I'm not going to tell you to try and catch a falling knife—just like I wasn't aggressively shorting gold right at the top in 2011. I'm rarely (if ever) going to nail the top or bottom of a cycle perfectly. These milestones only appear in hindsight.
I'm all about the low-risk, high-reward setups. That usually means missing tops and bottoms in favor of catching the meat of the big move.
Next…
"I bought gold (25% of my portfolio) on The Daily Reckoning's recommendation several years ago when it was selling at under $400 and I was pretty smug about it for quite some time," writes a loyal reader. "I'm still pretty smug but I'm not afraid to admit that I'm not sure why it's doing what it's doing right now. It's a gamble, I accept that. So should everyone. Long term, I think the forces of inflation will prevail. That's why I'm holding on."
Stay smug. You did alright for yourself.
Now do me a favor and take some of your gains off the table. This simple act should help your ride out the emotional highs and lows of the volatile precious metals market.
[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]
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