| | | This Week | | | | 
Sometimes we will look back at the week-that-was and discuss how it affected the market's rise or descent. This week, however, I thought we would take a quick look at the upcoming data and how it may drive the market. The majority of the news coming this week will revolve around the housing market. On Monday we will get the existing home sales data. This data point is a wider reaching survey than new home sales and indicates housing market trends. Since most people need to sell the home that they are currently living in before buying a newly constructed home, this is an important piece of information for overall health of this industry. If you can't sell the house you're living in, you can't buy a new one. Tuesday gives us a Federal housing price number and the Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Both are relatively unimportant. Wednesday we get new home sales data. This is the opposite of existing home sales data but just as important. Without new home sales, there are fewer refrigerators sold, less carpeting, less labor man hours, etc. Thursday gives us the durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims numbers. Both are quite important, but I believe that the market will concentrate more on the weekly jobless claims data. After all, we are getting quite close to the next monthly employment (jobs) number. Friday could be a big day. Shortly after the open we will get the consumer sentiment data, which will tell us if the average consumer believes in the BernanQE hype. I'm guessing they do. After all, the lame stream media touts it every day, just as they're told. | | ---Larry Levin | | |
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In conjunction with TheStreet.com and Bar Chart, Trading Advantage Chief Market Strategist Alan Knuckman provides a daily morning update on the global action in stock futures, gold, oil and interest rates. |
| | | | | | | | | Congratulations to Gina Space Congratulations to the Student of the Day Gina Space. Gina made $4500 killing it in the crude oil markets on Friday. Trading from South Florida, Gina has managed to master Patrick's High Volume Area style of trading in a very short time. Congratulations Gina! | | NOTICE: Testimonials are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonials, but facts stated in testimonials have not been independently audited or verified. Nor has there been any attempt to determine whether any testimonials are representative of the experiences of all persons using the methods described herein or to compare the experiences of the persons giving the testimonials after the testimonials were given. The average reader should not necessarily expect the same or similar results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. No person was compensated for providing a testimonial. |
| | | | | | OPTIONS: Volatility Commentary | ---Michael Shorr | | | A very slow day in the news and in the markets as the major development was the City of Detroit filing for bankruptcy. Late yesterday, the city submitted the largest filing for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy in U.S. history after emergency manager Kevyn Orr could not complete a deal with creditors over $20B in debt. "Decades of fiscal mismanagement; plummeting population, employment and revenues; decaying City infrastructure...Detroit today is a shell of the thriving metropolis that it once was," Orr wrote in his filing. Moody's has affirmed the U.S.'s AAA credit rating and even raised the country's sovereign outlook to Stable from Negative. They cited economic resilience relative to other top-rated nations and "major reductions" in government spending growth. Accomodative tax treatment for many multi-national corporations is being addressed by the G20. Companies such as Starbucks (SBUX), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) have been using the present tax code to avoid pay large amounts of tax. A major target of the change is the practice of transferring profits from countries where they are generated into low or no-tax jurisdictions via internal company transactions. A lot of "hoopla" has been paid today regarding the fact that West Texas Sweet Crude (CL) is trading over North Sea Brent Crude (BZ) for the first time in three years. So what does that mean and why should we care? The main thing that it tips to our trading desk is that one of the contributing factors is that this is a boom for U.S. refiners such as Valero (VLO), Tesoro (TSO) and Western Refiners (WNR). "The idea of having (freight) rates higher in mid-July than at the end of January - it would be like selling more ice cream in Central Park in January than (in the summer)," says the President of Scorpio Tankers (STNG). So we are looking for cheap vol upside plays in the U.S.-based oil refiners. |
| | | | | FOREX: Currency Spotlight | ---Ed Moya | | | | Shinzo Abe can now focus on his third arrow to defeat deflation in Japan. While it was widely expected for the Prime Minister to win the upper house elections, the markets can breathe a sigh of relief that the unlimited stimulus in Japan will go uninterrupted. The third arrow will focus on labor market reforms and that is needed in order for the other two arrows of a monetary and fiscal stimulus to continue to keep Japan's QE train running.
The QE confirmation from Governor Kuroda that the central bank will "continue with powerful easing" will possibly help spur the return to the carry trade on some of commodity currencies like the loonie and Aussie dollars.
The currency moves have been relatively small as summer conditions persist, but the macro trends are fairly confirmed for the next few weeks of trade. |
| | | | | STOCKS: Watch List | ---Charles Moon | | | | With a lower open to start the trading session, the markets slowly pressed higher throughout the day. While the DOW and the COMP closed in negative territory, the SPX closed with a nice push to finish the week at a new high yet again. Once the SPX pressed above the 1687.00 level, they had found support and bounced higher. The 1687.00 price is an important level as that was the previous record all time high price. Finding support at that level was very bullish, and it seems that 1700.00 is almost set in stone. Look at 1693.00 and 1700.00 as possible resistance points, but really...is there such a thing as resistance anymore in the markets?? Google(GOOG) looks to have a chance at recovery if it can clear the $900.00 range. Now the resistance can extend as far as $905.00, but if it can clear this level, then expect the run to $920.00 to be quick. That will be dependent on getting past the gap fill price at $910.00. If resistance is met at that price range, then support must come in at $900.00. A slip below this level in the short term can apply a lot of pressure on the buyers, The recovery will be in immediate danger of losing momentum, and the pullback can easily be 5-10% in a short period. Being overactive this week can spell danger. With a slew of earnings reports coming out, stock prices can become volatile and affect other stocks adversely. Watch for news on downgrades and hints of weaker forward guidance as the news can cause stock prices to slip dramatically. While we are in a bullish market, stocks are still vulnerable to huge drops in a short period of time. Trade with stops and look to see when earnings reports are coming out. It might help you retain the profits, before watching them disappear into thin air. Open Position: RIG, DE, POT, MON Stocks to Watch: INTC AAPL GOOG IBM AMZN ADBE LNKD FB TSLA GRPN CTXS CSCO NTAP JBL BAC C PRU WFC GS JPM MS RIG DE CMI CAT NFLX WDC GE AIG LULU DIS CROX STZ NKE UA LULU CHKP JNPR POT GMCR VZ T HOG MON YUM MCD LOW HD LEN TOL V MA AXP DFS LVS MGM |
| | | | | FUTURES: Technical Data | | | | | ES 1686.25 / 1680.25 POC… 1683.00 YM 15483 / 15451 NQ 3041.00 / 3034.00 | |
| | | | | COMMODITIES: Play of the Day | ---Patrick Assalone | | | | Crude Oil continues to provide the best trading opportunities with volatile markets and big price swings. A large cluster of volume has formed allowing multiple winning signals on Friday. Based on our educational methodology, we are looking for continued signals trading from the bottom of the High Volume Area at 107.24 to the top at 108.14 and a potential reversal back lower. If the market opens above 108.66, we would only look for long entries. Click here to watch video |
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