An Ignoble Experiment

2. 2013 shaping to be below average wildland fire year

A federal district judge ruled Aug. 12 that the stop and frisk practices of the New York Police Department violate Fourth and Fourteenth amendment rights and called for an independent monitor to ensure that future stops are carried out consistent with the constitution.

The ruling (.pdf), from Judge Shira Scheindlin of the U.S. Southern District of New York, doesn't question the ability of law enforcement to conduct what's known as a Terry stop, from the 1968 Terry v. Ohio Supreme Court case that established that police may stop and frisk an individual based on a standard of reasonable suspicion.

Rather, it says that the NYPD carried out a stop and frisk program that targeted people for stops based on their race. In her decision, Scheindlin cites statistical analyses that find that blacks and Hispanics are more likely than whites to be stopped, even after factoring out other relevant variables.

Of the 4.4 million Terry stops the city conducted between January 2004 and June 2012, 52 percent involved a black individual, 31 percent a Hispanic, and 10 percent a white individual.

In 2010, the racial composition of New York City was about 23 percent black, 29 percent Hispanic and 33 percent white.

Scheindlin dismisses a city argument that the appropriate benchmark for stop and frisk racial composition isn't city population but the racial composition of the local criminal suspect population.

"There is no basis for assuming that an innocent population shares the same characteristics as the criminal suspect population in the same area," she writes.

Some may worry about the implications of her decision, she also says. "They may wonder: if the police believe that a particular group of people is disproportionately responsible for crime in one area, why should the police not target that group with increased stops?"

However, she says that the Fourteenth Amendment prevents the police department from targeting a racially defined group for stops in general, "that is, for stops based on suspicions of general criminal wrongdoing--simply because members of that group appear frequently in the police department's suspect data."

Other remedies called for by the judge include a trial program testing body-worn cameras in one precinct per borough and a community-based joint remedial process to be conducted by a court-appointed facilitator.

The suit is a class action lawsuit filed by four African American men in 2008, David Floyd, Lalit Clarkson, Deon Dennis and Davis Ourlicht.

For more:
- download Scheindlin's ruling in Floyd, et al. v. New York (.pdf)
- download Scheindlin's order on remedies (.pdf)

By David Perera

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3. Attacks on U.S. diplomatic posts have killed hundreds since 1970

The number of wildland fires so far in 2013 is well below the decade year-to-date average in terms of frequency and acres burnt, shows data from the National Interagency Fire Center.

As of Aug. 11, there have been 29,921 recorded wildland fires that have consumed 2.7 million acres, whereas the 2004-2013 year-to-date average is 50,270 fires having burned 4.8 million acres.

If present trends continue, 2013 could be the second least harmful year of the past decade in terms of acres consumed by fire and the year with the fewest number of total fires.

Those numbers belie individual fires that have exacted terrible costs to human life and property--with 19 firefighters dying while fighting an Arizona wildfire and Colorado undergoing the most destructive wildfire in its history.

However, not even in terms of average number of acres burned per fire is 2013 shaping up to be a particularly bad year, with the past decade's average of acres-per-fire being 97.2, but the current average reaching only 91.3 acres. That latter number is nearly the median acres-per-fire number of the past decade, which is about 92.5.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, as of Aug. 11, there are 29 active large fires raging across 469,068 acres, with the greatest number in California, where six fires burn.

For more:
- go to the Interagency Fire Center for current fire statistics

By Zach Rausnitz

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4. C-27J has low fire retardant carrying capacity, says analysis

Terrorist attacks on U.S. diplomatic targets abroad have caused hundreds of deaths since 1970, nearly half of them in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombing in Kenya, the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism says.

That single attack, in Nairobi, killed more than 200 people, including 12 Americans. In the 11 countries where the State Department closed diplomatic facilities between Aug. 4 and Aug. 10, there were a total of 29 deaths in attacks on U.S. diplomatic targets from 1970 to 2012, according to data that START compiled and released (.pdf) Aug. 8

Sixteen of those fatalities were in Saudi Arabia.

Libya, Yemen, Jordan, Sudan, and Qatar were each the site of up to four fatalities.

Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Madagascar, where diplomatic facilities were also closed, had zero.

On Aug. 4, the State Department closed numerous diplomatic posts across the Middle East and Africa after it intercepted communications among terrorist leaders. Some of those embassies and consulates reopened Aug. 5, while others remained closed until Aug. 10.

The embassy in Sanaa, Yemen, remained closed beyond Aug. 10 "because of ongoing concerns about a threat stream indicating the potential for terrorist attacks emanating from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula," State spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a statement.

Some observers criticized the embassy closures as an overreaction, while some suspected that the abundance of caution stemmed from the killing of four Americans in Libya in September 2012, including Ambassador Christopher Stevens. In a statement, the government of Yemen said the decision "serves the interests of the extremists," according to The New York Times.

START data also shows that the greatest percentage of terrorist attacks--more than 30 percent--over the past 4 decades against U.S. targets abroad were against businesses interests, including hotel chains and oil companies.

Military targets were 21 percent of attacks, and diplomatic targets were 19 percent.

Media, airlines, nongovernmental organizations and tourists each comprised less than 5 percent of attacks against U.S. targets abroad.

For more:
- download the START report, "August 2013 Security Threat to Americans Abroad" (.pdf)

Read more about: AQAP, State Department
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By David Perera

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5. Multitude of ways California is feeling the effects of climate change

An analysis commissioned by the Forest Service on the C-27J aircraft finds its fire retardant carrying capacity would likely be lower than then 2,000 gallon minimum the agency says a medium tanker asset should have.

The analysis (.pdf), by Colorado Springs, Colo.-based Convergent Performance, says the C-27J is "a very realistic candidate for air tanker operations," but notes that the aircraft has a low maximum zero fuel weight (the greatest possible aircraft weight not including weight of the fuel).

That means that the carrying capacity of the C-27J is relatively low. The fire retardant delivery systems Convergent consultants consider for potential installation on a C-27J would require removal of at least 42,900 pounds of equipment such as the cargo loading system. Under scenarios outlined in the analysis, removing the cargo loading system would bring up retardant carrying capacity to 1,850 gallons but also likely dedicate the aircraft solely to an air tanker role. Keeping the cargo loading system, which would also permit installation of a modified Mobile Airborne Fire Fighting System, would reduce capacity to 1,100 gallons.

The Forest Service is set to take possession of at least seven C-27Js following a decision by the Air Force to terminate the C-27J program. The Coast Guard is set to take possession of another seven; thereafter, the Forest Service has first right of refusal over another seven of the aircraft.

The low maximum zero fuel weight creates potential problems for other mission uses as well. Although "easily capable of delivering time-sensitive cargo, supplies and personnel to operating location in a 'last mile forward' role" due to its short takeoff and landing capability, maximum cargo weight is 12,222 pounds, the analysis says. It can be increased by adding fuel to the wings, but that would restrict cargo delivery to airdrops, the analysis adds.

For the smoke jumper mission, however, the C-27J would be "very compatible," the analysis finds, since the aircraft was designed for paratroopers as well as for delivering cargo.

For more:
- download the analysis, "C-27J Capabilities and Cost Analysis Report" (.pdf)

Read more about: Fores Service, Convergent Performance
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By Zach Rausnitz

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