Trading the Cruelest Month of All...

I told you a few weeks ago to look to January to set the tone for this year's trading. So far, the tone has been decidedly bearish... January 30, 2014     Trading the Cruelest Month of All...   Dissecting the January Barometer Quit predicting--start reacting Plus: What flavor was Ben Bernanke's retirement cake?   Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD... Greg Guenthner January is almost in the bag. And unless you've been trapped inside your igloo for the past month, you know the market isn't exactly blasting higher. I told you a few weeks ago to look to January to set the tone for this year's trading. So far, the tone has been decidedly bearish. Barring a monster rally today, the S&P 500 will finish the month down a cool 4%. The last time the market started off the year in the red was 2010. That year, January losses came in at -3.7%... In fairness, 2010 wasn't a completely lost year for stocks. The market got off to a rough start, rallied into the spring--then tanked into the summer months. It wasn't until September when stocks finally recovered, mounting a year-end rally that helped push the broad market to a 12.8% gain on the year. Now, everyone wants to know if we're going to have a tough trading year that ultimately pushes higher like we saw in 2010--or a disastrous meltdown. I have no idea. If I did know, I wouldn't be writing to you this morning (no offense). Instead, I'd be watching the sun rise on my private island in parts unknown... We can't predict with certainty whether or not the emerging market troubles we've experienced this month will infect US stocks to the point of crisis. This exercise is futile. Your mission is much simpler. Rather than act on wild guesses, you need to react to what the market tells you. If you're trading this market, lighten up your exposure and don't lean too far bullish or too far bearish. This type of environment can get extremely volatile. Don't get caught on the wrong side of a big move...         Is The White House Terrified of the "Secret $200 Retirement Blueprint?" If you've already retired, or want to retire soon, I urge you to watch this video presentation before we have to pull it down. This "Secret $200 Retirement Blueprint" shows you step-by-step how to grow a monster-sized nest egg with a little time and a tiny grubstake. Click here to watch this video presentation now.           Rude Numbers Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses   53% of Facebook's ad revenue now comes from its mobile division. That's a segment of the social network that just saw a 76% annual jump in revenue. $2.9 billion buys Lenovo Google's Motorola Mobility unit. That's a business that Google paid $12.5 billion for in 2011. 189 points dropped off the Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday. The Dow has shed triple-digits in three out of its last five trading sessions... 72% of stocks trading on U.S. exchanges ended Wednesday in the red. As of the closing bell, less than half of all domestic equities are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages... $1,270 continues to act as resistance to gold futures. Gold was turned back at $1,270 again after rising $20 during Wednesday's session...     Rude Trends When to Buy... When to Sell   We turn now to our own senior Federal Reserve correspondent Jonas Elmerraji with this urgent update from The Street: "With investors still grappling over the outcome of the latest Federal Reserve decision yesterday, we've got a lot of questions yet unanswered," Jonas says. "Questions like, 'What flavor was Ben Bernanke's retirement cake?' (He sort of strikes me as a vanilla guy.) Or, 'Did the Fed Governors chip in to buy him a nice watch?'(Probably not.) "Those are the questions worth asking in the wake of the Fed decision, because, the decision to cut QE spending to $65 billion a month was about as shocking as discovering that MTV doesn't play music videos anymore. If the Fed backpedaled on the taper, it would send a pretty jarring signal to Mr. Market -- this recovery is nowhere near as robust as we thought it was. "Likewise, the recent correction in the S&P 500 hasn't exactly been an epiphany either. Or it shouldn't have been. Want to position yourself on the right side of this leg down? Then it makes sense to think like a trader." Click here to see how Jonas is playing the market right now... [Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]     Ignore At Your Own Peril Today's Must Read Links   Not since World War II have investors had an opportunity to grab gains like these from military spending Could Obama ban this video? 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