Profit From One Of The Smartest Business Models I've Ever Seen
By Dave Forest
One of the big advantages here at StreetAuthority is that we have access to each other's brains. That collective brain consists of a whole slate of investing minds across the StreetAuthority universe -- experts who are constantly pulling together critical insights from all over the investing world.
It was a recent dispatch from one of our top analysts that jogged my memory on a lesser-known way to invest in the consumer sector -- one that I believe has considerable upside, but with much less risk of loss than your average consumer stock if the economy does happen to zig when we think it should zag.
That dispatch came in the latest edition of Amy Calistri's The Daily Paycheck.
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While looking for sectors with big dividend yields -- but also below-average risk profiles suitable for income investors -- Amy pointed out a very interesting chart, one I haven't seen any other analysts talking about yet.
Her chart shows how there's a boom underway in a place you might not expect: shipping.
As the chart below shows, shipping rates -- as measured by the Baltic Capesize Index -- were on a tear in the second half in 2013.
Amy points out that the recent rise is due to growing demand for shipping of goods around the globe. Which makes perfect sense -- if demand for consumer products is indeed turning up, more goods (and the raw materials to manufacture them) are going to be sailing around the world.
Of course, increasing demand for shipping means bigger profits for shipping firms. These companies thus provide a way to profit directly from growing consumer demand -- without actually buying companies that make and sell consumer goods.
Great insight. But here's the problem... Shipping is an industry that goes against several of my rules about what makes a great business.
For example, most of the world's greatest businesses are simple and don't require massive capital investments in complicated equipment. Shipping, by contrast, is a highly logistical industry -- with big costs associated with building and maintaining cargo vessels.
The world's best businesses also have large competitive moats, a feat that's difficult to achieve in the shipping business, where nearly anyone with enough cash can buy a fleet of boats and attempt to undercut the market. It's simply a matter of setting rates cheap enough -- which firms in places like China are certainly able to do.
For all of these reasons, I'm hesitant to place a shipping firm alongside the kinds of "Legacy Asset" stocks I normally recommend in my newsletter, Top 10 Stocks.
But that's fine. Because I've found an even better way to invest in the transport business -- with a firm that makes big, consistent profits from one of the most elegantly simple business models I've come across.
Expeditors International of Washington (Nasdaq: EXPD) is one of the most interesting companies going today. It's a firm that makes big-league profits from a very specialized niche -- one most investors would never think of as having the potential for the multi-billions in revenue that EXPD generates.
The company began as a single office in Seattle in 1981 focused on ocean freight.
But it quickly became much more than that when its forward-looking management came up with a novel idea: Why stop at just moving goods? Why not become the one-stop shop for buyers and sellers looking to navigate the increasingly complex waters of global trade?
You see, at first blush you might think that trade is mainly about transporting things from one country to another. But in today's world, that's actually a lot more complicated than it sounds.
Expeditors International makes it simple by managing nearly every part of the shipping process. And here's the kicker: The firm doesn't own a single boat, truck or plane.
Unlike most big shipping firms, Expeditors works by contracting to other carrier companies. The company buys shipping space in bulk from airlines and ocean carriers -- thus obtaining very good rates.
It then employs a unique -- and very profitable -- strategy, one that's simply referred to by three letters: LCL. That stands for less-than-container load, an industry term for shipments of goods smaller than the size of an average shipping container.
Imagine you're a small or even medium-size business. You have product that has to move around the world -- fast. But you just don't have the volume that a big producer might send to China or India.
Contracting directly with an airline or ocean carrier, you would have no choice but to purchase an entire container, which would travel abroad with your half-load of goods -- and a lot of costly empty space.
Here's where Expeditors' unusual business strategy comes in. The firm purchases entire containers, then combines a number of small loads from its clients into one full container of goods, saving money by not wasting space.
This is a win-win situation. By achieving economies of scale, Expeditors can re-sell cargo space to its clients for more than it originally paid. At the same time, its clients still pay less than they would if they had to buy out a full container.
In effect, Expeditors is turning empty space into big profits.
The firm makes this easy to do -- offering a full range of services in picking up, repacking and delivering goods. It combines road, air and ocean transport for its clients -- providing greater flexibility than most of the big shipping companies are able to.
It even offers customs management services to make sure goods move quickly and efficiently through legal hoops between countries.
Expeditors' unique niche in reselling cargo space might not sound like a headline-making business. But it's proven very profitable over the years.
In 2012, the firm did just under $6 billion in revenue. In fact, Expeditors' revenues for the past three years have been remarkably stable around that level.
The simplicity of Expeditors' business model also means good operating margins, running consistently around 30%. Since the firm doesn't own any of its own transport fleet, it avoids having to plow big sums of money back into the business to maintain equipment or buy new vessels.
This financial consistency makes Expeditors exactly the sort of company that fits with our Top 10 Stocks philosophy. The business is extremely enduring -- freight transport isn't going away. In fact the sector is only likely to grow as trade and manufacturing become increasingly globalized.
Expeditors also enjoys a big competitive moat. The company succeeds because of its decades of experience in buying and selling cargos at the absolute best prices. A startup competitor simply wouldn't have the expertise and contacts needed to grab market share.
And the company is working to keep its customers loyal. During the quarter ended in September, for example, Expeditors chose to absorb a temporary spike in shipping costs rather than pass the higher prices along to its customers. This leveling of costs actually increased the company's market share -- and ensured retention of existing customers.
These are exactly the kinds of things I look for in Top 10 Stocks. In fact, in a recent report, my research staff and I have identified 11 investments that can make money for investors not just for years or decades... but for generations. We call them "Legacy Assets," and they're not only some of the safest investments around, but they've delivered an average gain of 242% in the last 10 years -- enough to turn a $10,000 investment into $34,200 today. To learn more, you can view our report here.
Good investing,
Dave Forest
Chief Investment Strategist
Top 10 Stocks
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