| February 01, 2014 | | | | | | | |  | | | | Uncertainty and Investing | | | | | - Traders lick their wounds… and head for the only safety they know…
- A look at the week's insights from Bill Bonner… the Mogambo Guru… Greg Canavan… Nathan Lewis… and John Pugsley...
- Plus, the late Harry Browne on the important difference between expectations and predictions in this week's Flotsam and Jetsam… (be sure to scroll all the way down)
| | | | | | | | | | | | The Most Important 86 Seconds of Your Day
86 seconds. That's all we're asking of your time.
In just 86 seconds, you'll discover the most improbable niche market we've ever found… and whether it's right for you.
Click here to see if this niche market is right for you! | | | | | | | | | | |  Peter Coyne, wincing at stocks' performance in January...
Traders are busy licking their wounds this fine Saturday. Stocks closed yesterday for their first negative January showing since 2010. It was a stark contrast to the up-and-away market movements of yesteryear. Between stock market drops, tapering, emerging-market currency craziness and fears of deflation in Europe… investors did the only thing they could think of… buy 10-year Treasuries. The switch drove the benchmark yield down to 2.66%. It was a neat trick considering 10-year bonds yielded over 3% just 31 days earlier. As the events unfolded, we took an… abstract...look at the role of the dollar as the Fed continues to inflate... and at the U.S. as investors' safe haven. Below, you'll find this week's top insights and articles from The Daily Reckoning. And in "Flotsam & Jetsam" (buried deep down at the bottom of today's issue), we feature Harry Browne. We've been spending a considerable amount of time reading Browne's work lately. Currently, we're in the middle of Inflation-Proofing Your Investments, which is one of his many well-known books. No doubt it's dated… but nuggets of timeless wisdom still abound. Be sure to read "Flotsam & Jetsam" to read the one we've plucked out for you that we titled "Uncertainty and Investing"... Regards,
Peter Coyne
for The Daily Reckoning | | | | | | | | | | | | Conservative Talk Show Host Goes Crazy on Camera
"I just figured out how to 'supersize' what I save for retirement by legally 'cheating' the U.S. government."
That's right. It's 100% legal, there are no red flags and according to the Supreme Court itself, the federal taxman won't be allowed to touch a nickel.
Click here to see how! | | | | | | | | | | | This Week in the Daily Reckoning
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 42 YEARS OF FUNNY MONEY
1/27/14
By Nathan Lewis
"What would things look like sixty years from now, when like Copernicus, we look back upon a century of this funny-money self-impoverishment..."
 WHEN THE HOUSE OF DEBT COLLAPSES
1/28/14
By The Mogambo Guru
"To my credit, instead of getting into the ritual screaming match ensuing after I cleverly retort "No, YOU'RE the morons!" and "I hate you, too!", this time I graciously tried to turn it into a "teaching moment" for the wife and the kids..."
 THE INEVITABLE RESULT OF INFLATION
1/29/14
By John A. Pugsley
"When a state monetizes debt either by printing bank notes directly or by borrowing such notes from a bank without intention of repaying, it is just as much a thief of the society. The difference is that the victim becomes twice remove from his enemy…"
 THE RETURN OF THE WORLDWIDE CRACKUP BOOM 1/30/13
By Bill Bonner
"At first, no one can tell the difference between a real dollar – one that is earned, saved, invested or spent -- and one that just came off the printing presses. They figure that the new dollar is as good as the old one. And then…"
 THE TRIFFIN DILEMMA
1/31/14
By Greg Canavan
"Due to its economic and military might, the reserve currency status of the dollar actually grew in acceptance throughout the next few decades. But Triffin's Dilemma never went away…" | | | | | | | | | | | | Obama's Sinister Plan to Grab Americans' Retirement Accounts?
The IRS scandal. Benghazi. Obamacare.
What's next? Maybe your IRA, 401(k) and pension plan?
All could be in Obama's "cross hairs" in the next 12 months. Few know it, but there's a special "retirement plan" that Obama can't touch.
Go here for the details. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Flotsam & Jetsam ******************************* Uncertainty and Investing | | | | by Harry Browne | | |  It's easy to think that you know what the future holds -- whether inflation will rise or fall, which investments will do well and which poorly, what the political shape of America will be in five years. But the future invariably contradicts our expectations in some way. Often you can be right in your general expectations, but wrong about the specifics -- so that the investments you bet on don't work out. Over and over again we are proven wrong when we bet too much on our expectations, and yet each time we're tempted to believe we've found a sure thing. But sure things don't exist in the real world. Every economic event results from the motivations and actions of literally billions of people. To assume that you can predict what all those people will do is not only presumptuous, it is dangerous. There is no way you can eliminate uncertainty or obtain a private line to the future. You have to let the future unfold as it will. Uncertainty is a fact of life. However, you do have expectations you believe that some things are more likely to happen than others. It would be foolish to treat those expectations as certainties, but it would be equally foolish to ignore them -- since disregarding them would leave you exposed to the dangers you see and unable to profit from what you believe will happen. Uncertainty doesn't mean that you know nothing at all, that your opinions have no merit, or that you are helpless to prepare for the future. It does mean that you should allow for surprises -- never taking anything for granted and never treating an investment as a sure thing. Basically, your job is twofold: - You need to understand the general forces at work in the world. With this understanding, you are less likely to be surprised by what happens. And you'll have a sense of the probable, which can help you ignore fashionable opinion when is is wise to do so. As long as you distinguish between expecting and predicting, your understanding will save you from many costly mistakes.
- You need to arrange your economic affairs in a way that reflects your expectations but at the same time, allows for the possibility you're wrong. In other words, you should hedge against your main investments -- so that the inevitable surprises won't be catastrophic.
- To make money on your investments, it isn't necessary to know the future. It is necessary to base your opinions upon understanding -- not upon hope or wishful thinking. And it is necessary to have an investment program that is realistic, that relies only on what you're actually able to do -- not on what might be profitable if we were all as clever as we wish we were.
Regards, Harry Browne
for The Daily Reckoning | | | | | | |  Harry Browne was a two-time presidential candidate, investment advisor and the author of twelve books including Inflation-Proofing Your Investments. From 1974 to 1997 he published his financial newsletter Harry Browne Special Reports. | | | | | | | BE SURE TO ADD dr@dailyreckoning.com to your address book.
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