How to Become a "Vacation Trader"

The summer chop is coming soon to a market near you… April 28, 2014     How to Become a "Vacation Trader"   Prepping for the summer chop Here comes May… is it time to sell? Plus: A silver-bullet drug…   Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD... Greg Guenthner The summer chop is coming soon to a market near you… It's that time of year again. We're just a few days away from May. That means the market is about to enter its least productive six months of the year. Now, I realize many investors don't take market seasonality seriously. But you should. It's the one longer-term timing tool that can help you know when to back up the truck—and when to sit on your hands. Right now, staying away from aggressive buys is the name of the game. You don't have to look back very far to see why. Just look at last year's performance… I can't emphasize this enough: 2013 was a huge year for equities. The S&P 500 delivered gains nearing 30% on the year. That's the best performance we've seen from stocks since 1997. Investors waited 16 years for stocks to come close to matching the returns of the dot-com era. But even as we enjoyed the most accommodating market so far this century, you still could have cashed out in May, unplugged your computer, and hit the beach for the summer without missing a beat. 2013's summer gains were a paltry 2.2%. For four months during the strongest market of the 2000s, the major averages chopped up anyone in its path and entered the fall trading season barely in the green… In fact, since the post-crisis bull market emerged, just one summer offered impressive returns. That was 2009, right as the market was powering off its lows… If you exclude 2009 (a disbelief-driven, first phase bull market), the S&P's summer returns over the past five years are downright nasty. 2010 and 2011 delivered sharp drops, while 2012 and 2013 only offered choppy action and small returns. Need more proof? Even if you pile on more than 60 years of data, the numbers show the summer season is not kind to stocks. My friend J.C. Parets, president of Eagle Bay Capital, has the numbers: "If you use the Dow Jones Industrial Average and go back to 1950, the statistics are simply staggering," J.C. explains. "Hypothetically, had you invested $10,000 but only owned stocks between November 1st through April each year, on April 30th of 2013 that $10,000 would have been worth $775,055. That's pretty awesome. Now, had you done the exact opposite and purchased the Dow Industrials every year on May 1 and sold on Halloween, you would have actually lost $687 over the past 63 years." Even if you're a longer-term investor, you can make market seasonality work for you. And you don't have to simply "sell in May and go away". Become a vacation trader. Lighten up on stocks as summer approaches. Reassess your holdings and rotate into the safer sectors that are showing relative strength. We're also tacking some defensive plays in the PRO today. Click here to get the details…         Bigger than Benghazi, the IRS and the NSA Scandals… Combined? It's shocking stuff. Bigger than anything you might hear on Talk Radio. A Florida-based computer expert is breaking an incredible story. Perhaps the biggest political story of the next decade. In short, the last six years of the Democratic Party's agenda could be undone, and this whistleblower is putting everything he discovered up in a free video. You can view it for free, right here.           Rude Numbers Targets, Predictions and Wild Guesses   20,519 Starbucks locations now dot the globe, according to the company's latest earnings release. $100 has dropped from Amazon's share price since the company's January report. 1709 stock splits have taken place since 1990, though few that have been as high-profile as Apple's impending split. $101.11 buys a barrel of oil this morning. Despite tumbling form its highs near $105 earlier this month, oil is finding support near $100... 1,864 is where you'll find S&P futures this morning. Stocks are looking to open in the green this morning after Friday's broad decline…     Rude Trends When to Buy... When to Sell   Be on the Lookout for Your Exclusive Phase 3 Rocket Recommendation… That's another note I received from my new colleague Paul Mampilly. Paul has been working around the clock to deliver a new pharma trade. And he's almost ready to show his cards… "This company has a drug -- a silver-bullet drug -- that could change the way people with prostate cancer are treated forever," Paul explains. "If the drug works out as I believe it's going to, this stock, which is currently valued at about $500 million, could be worth $2 billion or more." I'm ready to send you an update about this opportunity early this afternoon. Keep an eye on your inbox later today so you don't miss all the details... [Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]     Ignore At Your Own Peril Today's Must Read Links   Collect $1,050 in INSTANT Income Starting Today! Does the U.S. Government Want This Potential Cancer Cure Banned? When Your Accountant Wants Tax-Free Income... This is What He Does     BE SURE TO ADD dr@dailyreckoning.com to your address book.       Additional Articles & Commentary: Join the conversation! Follow us on social media:         The Rude Awakening is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to Agora Financial delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your Rude Awakening e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Rude Awakening, click here. Please read our Privacy Statement. For any further comments or concerns please email us at rude@agorafinancial.com. 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