Nature Climate Change Contents July 2014 Volume 4 Number 7 pp 519-643

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TABLE OF CONTENTS July 2014 Volume 4, Issue 7 Editorial Commentaries Features Research Highlights News and Views Correction Perspectives Letters Articles Addendum Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Announcing Nature Plants: From Bench to Biosphere  Launching in January 2015, Nature Plants will be a new monthly journal concerned with all aspects of plants be it their evolution, genetics, development or metabolism, their interactions with the environment, or their societal significance.  Visit the site to find out more, register for updates and to submit your paper!      Editorial Top Yields and more p519 doi:10.1038/nclimate2300 Agricultural production is a key point of social vulnerability to climate change, and also a major contributor to those very changes. Commentaries Top Natural capital accounting and climate change pp520 - 522 Matthew Agarwala, Giles Atkinson, Christopher Baldock and Barry Gardiner doi:10.1038/nclimate2257 Governments and businesses are beginning to account for natural capital, but must collaborate to promote sustainability, combat climate change and improve decision-making. Five ways to enhance the impact of climate science pp522 - 524 David Christian Rose doi:10.1038/nclimate2270 Embracing an 'evidence-informed' rather than 'evidence-based' attitude to policy-making should result in more effective action on climate change, recognizing that evidence must be used in such a way as to interact persuasively with other factors. A better currency for investing in a sustainable future pp524 - 527 Michael Carbajales-Dale, Charles J. Barnhart, Adam R. Brandt and Sally M. Benson doi:10.1038/nclimate2285 Net energy analysis should be a critical energy policy tool. We identify five critical themes for realizing a low-carbon, sustainable energy future and highlight the key perspective that net energy analysis provides. Climate engineering reconsidered pp527 - 529 Scott Barrett, Timothy M. Lenton, Antony Millner, Alessandro Tavoni, Stephen Carpenter, John M. Anderies, F. Stuart Chapin III, Anne-Sophie Crépin, Gretchen Daily, Paul Ehrlich, Carl Folke, Victor Galaz, Terry Hughes, Nils Kautsky, Eric F. Lambin, Rosamond Naylor, Karine Nyborg, Stephen Polasky, Marten Scheffer, James Wilen, Anastasios Xepapadeas and Aart de Zeeuw doi:10.1038/nclimate2278 Stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols has been advocated as an emergency geoengineering measure to tackle dangerous climate change, or as a stop-gap until atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are reduced. But it may not prove to be the game-changer that some imagine. Features Top Blind spot pp530 - 531 Elisabeth Jeffries doi:10.1038/nclimate2283 Through modern media, Africa is now in people's living rooms and offices, so Africans need to report their experience of climate change. Snapshot: UK climate negotiators p532 Monica Contestabile doi:10.1038/nclimate2291 Research Highlights Top Forest Carbon: Forest disturbance | Mitigation: Water costs of afforestation | Psychology: Geoengineering views | Oceanography: Polar response asymmetry | Water resources: Shifting El Niño takes rains News and Views Top Environmental economics: Optimal carbon tax doubled pp534 - 535 Rachel Warren doi:10.1038/nclimate2288 Cost–benefit analysis and risk assessment approaches inform global climate change mitigation policy-making processes. Now, a development in the former shows that optimal carbon tax levels have previously been underestimated by a factor of two. See also: Article by Benjamin Crost et al. Integrated assessment: Modelling agricultural adaptation pp535 - 536 Ian Sue Wing and Enrica De Cian doi:10.1038/nclimate2287 Agriculture-focused integrated assessment models may be overstating the ability of poor countries to adapt to climate change. Empirical research can elucidate limits of adaptation in agricultural systems and help models better represent them. Impacts: Heated debate on cold weather pp537 - 538 Erich M. Fischer and Reto Knutti doi:10.1038/nclimate2286 Arctic warming has reduced cold-season temperature variability in the northern mid- to high-latitudes. Thus, the coldest autumn and winter days have warmed more than the warmest days, contrary to recent speculations. See also: Letter by James A. Screen Climate and land use: Forgive us our carbon debts pp538 - 539 Marcia N. Macedo and Eric A. Davidson doi:10.1038/nclimate2279 Sugar cane ethanol replaces fossil fuels, but changes in soil carbon could offset some of the benefit. Now, a study shows minor loss of soil carbon when pastures and croplands are converted to cane, but larger losses when converting native savannahs. See also: Letter by Francisco F. C. Mello et al. Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger pp540 - 541 Christoph Müller, Joshua Elliott and Anders Levermann doi:10.1038/nclimate2290 Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food. Agricultural impacts: Europe's diminishing bread basket pp541 - 542 Holger Meinke doi:10.1038/nclimate2289 Global demand for wheat is projected to increase significantly with continuing population growth. Currently, Europe reliably produces about 29% of global wheat supply. However, this might be under threat from climate change if adaptive measures are not taken now. See also: Article by Miroslav Trnka et al. JOBS of the week Senior scientist (f / m) Climate Dynamics Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) Assistant Lecturer / Lecturer / Senior Lecturer in Marine Ecotoxicology and Oceanography The University of the South Pacific [USP] Professor in Physical Geography with a Specialisation in Ecosystem Exchange Processes Lund University Assistant Lecturer / Lecturer / Senior Lecturer in Coral Reef Ecology The University of the South Pacific [USP] More Science jobs from EVENT International Conference on Climate Change Innovation and Resilience for Sustainable Livelihood 12.01.15 Kathmandu, Nepal More science events from   Correction Top Correction p542 doi:10.1038/nclimate2284 Perspectives Top A compromise to break the climate impasse pp543 - 549 Marco Grasso and J. Timmons Roberts doi:10.1038/nclimate2259 2014 is a critical year for preparing for the 2015 deadline to settle a new international agreement on measures to tackle climate change. This Perspective offers a number of compromises designed to help overcome the present impasse in global climate negotiations. Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment pp550 - 557 A. Arneth, C. Brown and M. D. A. Rounsevell doi:10.1038/nclimate2250 Climate change mitigation and adaptation are human-mediated processes but global modelling tools currently take no account of human responses to environmental change. In this Perspective the authors propose the agent functional type approach to advance the representation of these processes. The role of networks in transforming Australian agriculture pp558 - 563 Anne-Maree Dowd, Nadine Marshall, Aysha Fleming, Emma Jakku, Estelle Gaillard and Mark Howden doi:10.1038/nclimate2275 Purposeful action leading to significant structural and/or functional changes — known as transformational adaptation — may be required to adapt agriculture to the changing climate. Now, research shows that strong access to knowledge and weak social ties (social capital) empowers individuals to plan and implement novel farming strategies and options. Letters Top Evolution of the Southern Annular Mode during the past millennium pp564 - 569 Nerilie J. Abram, Robert Mulvaney, Françoise Vimeux, Steven J. Phipps, John Turner and Matthew H. England doi:10.1038/nclimate2235 Climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is dominanted by the Southern Annular Mode, which influences temperatures and latitudinal rainfall distribution. This work reconstructs its annual variability since the year 1000. The authors find that a positive trend since the 1940s is reproduced by climate model simulations with representative greenhouse gas forcings and ozone depletion. Early trends indicate a teleconnection to tropical Pacific climate, which may need to be considered in projections under climate change. Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model pp570 - 576 Elizabeth J. Kendon, Nigel M. Roberts, Hayley J. Fowler, Malcolm J. Roberts, Steven C. Chan and Catherine A. Senior doi:10.1038/nclimate2258 Changes in precipitation extremes are occurring under climate change, but how they will manifest on sub-daily timescales is uncertain. This study used a high-resolution model, typically used for weather forecasting, to simulate hourly rainfall in the UK in the year 2100. The results confirmed previous findings of winter rainfall intensification and found that short-duration rainfall intensified in summer, increasing the risk of flash flooding. Arctic amplification decreases temperature variance in northern mid- to high-latitudes pp577 - 582 James A. Screen doi:10.1038/nclimate2268 Arctic amplification is thought to be altering the polar jet stream and increasing Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature variability. This study investigates cold extremes in the mid-latitudes and shows that subseasonal cold-season variability has significantly decreased in recent decades. The reduction in variability is partly due to more rapid warming of northerly winds and associated cold days, relative to southerly winds and warm days. See also: News and Views by Erich M. Fischer et al. A precipitation shift from snow towards rain leads to a decrease in streamflow pp583 - 586 W. R. Berghuijs, R. A. Woods and M. Hrachowitz doi:10.1038/nclimate2246 Increased surface temperatures are expected to cause less precipitation in the form of snow. The impact of decreased snowfall has previously been assumed to not influence streamflow significantly. This work applies a water-balance framework to catchments in the United States and finds a greater percentage of precipitation as snowfall is associated with greater mean streamflow. Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation pp587 - 592 A. F. Lutz, W. W. Immerzeel, A. B. Shrestha and M. F. P. Bierkens doi:10.1038/nclimate2237 The impact of climate change on the water resources and hydrology of High Asia is uncertain. This work uses a cryospheric hydrological model to quantify the hydrology of five major rivers in the region and project future water availability. Runoff is expected to increase until at least 2050 due to an increase in precipitation in the upper catchment of four rivers and increased melt entering the fifth river. Biomineralization control related to population density under ocean acidification pp593 - 597 Stefano Goffredo, Fiorella Prada, Erik Caroselli, Bruno Capaccioni, Francesco Zaccanti, Luca Pasquini, Paola Fantazzini, Simona Fermani, Michela Reggi, Oren Levy, Katharina E. Fabricius, Zvy Dubinsky and Giuseppe Falini doi:10.1038/nclimate2241 Carbon dioxide seeps in marine environments act as 'natural labs' for studying the impact of ocean acidification on benthic calcifiers. Focusing on the effects of an increased CO2 concentration on population density and biomineralization, this study helps explain species-specific responses to ocean acidification, and reveals some evidence of phenotypic plasticity that may improve the persistence of marine species in low pH conditions. Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology pp598 - 604 Trevor F. Keenan, Josh Gray, Mark A. Friedl, Michael Toomey, Gil Bohrer, David Y. Hollinger, J. William Munger, John O'Keefe, Hans Peter Schmid, Ian Sue Wing, Bai Yang and Andrew D. Richardson doi:10.1038/nclimate2253 The timing of life-history events has a strong impact on ecosystems. Now, analysis of the phenology of temperate forests in the eastern US indicates that in the case of an earlier spring and a later autumn, carbon uptake (photosynthesis) increases considerably more than carbon release (respiration). Payback time for soil carbon and sugar-cane ethanol pp605 - 609 Francisco F. C. Mello, Carlos E. P. Cerri, Christian A. Davies, N. Michele Holbrook, Keith Paustian, Stoécio M. F. Maia, Marcelo V. Galdos, Martial Bernoux and Carlos C. Cerri doi:10.1038/nclimate2239 Sugar cane is increasingly cultivated for bioenergy. This work looks at the effects on the soil-carbon balance of converting native vegetation, pastures or existing cropland, to sugar-cane plantations in Brazil, the world's largest producer. The findings of the study should help shape policies aimed at achieving more sustainable sugar-cane production in Brazil as demand for biofuels grows. See also: News and Views by Marcia N. Macedo et al. Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change pp610 - 614 Frances C. Moore and David B. Lobell doi:10.1038/nclimate2228 On-farm adaptations could play an important role in moderating the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. Here, a statistical approach is applied to assess the adaptation potential of agriculture in Europe, focusing on three major crops—maize, wheat and barley. Effects of double cropping on summer climate of the North China Plain and neighbouring regions pp615 - 619 Su-Jong Jeong, Chang-Hoi Ho, Shilong Piao, Jinwon Kim, Philippe Ciais, Yun-Bok Lee, Jong-Ghap Jhun and Seon Ki Park doi:10.1038/nclimate2266 To meet growing food demands without expanding cropland area, much of the North China Plain has moved from single to double annual cropping. Now, research shows that this change in agricultural management alters biophysical feedbacks to the climate in such a way that they can amplify summertime climate changes over East Asia. Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change pp620 - 624 Clint C. Muhlfeld, Ryan P. Kovach, Leslie A. Jones, Robert Al-Chokhachy, Matthew C. Boyer, Robb F. Leary, Winsor H. Lowe, Gordon Luikart and Fred W. Allendorf doi:10.1038/nclimate2252 Cross-breeding between invasive and native species (hybridization) is one of the potential ways that climate change can impact biodiversity; unfortunately there is little data on this phenomenon. Now, research shows that rapid climate-warming has exacerbated interactions between native trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and the non-native species (Oncorhynchus mykiss) through invasive hybridization in western North America. Climate fails to predict wood decomposition at regional scales pp625 - 630 Mark A. Bradford, Robert J. Warren II, Petr Baldrian, Thomas W. Crowther, Daniel S. Maynard, Emily E. Oldfield, William R. Wieder, Stephen A. Wood and Joshua R. King doi:10.1038/nclimate2251 Climate is assumed to be the predominant control on the decomposition rates of organic matter in Earth-system models. Now, research investigating the sensitivity of this relationship to spatial scale reveals the important role of local-scale factors in controlling regional decomposition dynamics. Articles Top Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation pp631 - 636 Benjamin Crost and Christian P. Traeger doi:10.1038/nclimate2249 Most integrated assessment models used to estimate the long-term economic loss from current carbon emissions, and to evaluate climate policy, are deterministic. By including the risk of damage in these models, research now shows that estimates of the optimal rate of emissions abatement and carbon taxation are double the levels obtained by using the standard formulation. See also: News and Views by Rachel Warren Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change pp637 - 643 Miroslav Trnka, Reimund P. Rötter, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Jørgen E. Olesen, Zden?k ?alud and Mikhail A. Semenov doi:10.1038/nclimate2242 Studies into the effects of climate change on crop yields have tended to focus on the average state of the climate. Now, research into the effects of adverse weather events on wheat yields in Europe suggests that the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within a season is expected to increase substantially by the year 2060. See also: News and Views by Holger Meinke Addendum Top Addendum: Nutrient availability as the key regulator of global forest carbon balance p643 M. Fernández-Martínez, S. Vicca, I. A. Janssens, J. Sardans, S. Luyssaert, M. Campioli, F. S. Chapin III, P. Ciais, Y. Malhi, M. Obersteiner, D. Papale, S. L. Piao, M. Reichstein, F. Rodà and J. Peñuelas doi:10.1038/nclimate2282 Advertisement   A new online open access multi-and interdisciplinary journal dedicated to publishing the finest research on microbial biofilms and microbiomes. Part of the Nature Partner Journals portfolio - a new series of online open access journals published in collaboration with world-renowned international partners.     Natureevents is a fully searchable, multi-disciplinary database designed to maximise exposure for events organisers. The contents of the Natureevents Directory are now live. The digital version is available here. Find the latest scientific conferences, courses, meetings and symposia on natureevents.com. For event advertising opportunities across the Nature Publishing Group portfolio please contact natureevents@nature.com More Nature Events

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