An Ignoble Experiment

2. Energy constraints driving energy efficiency globally

Environmental regulations focusing on curbing greenhouse gas and other emissions, and the need to enhance energy self-sufficiency and security, are rapidly powering the growth of the solar market -- with an upward trend in Asia-Pacific and Africa, among others -- according to Frost & Sullivan.

Credit: Ken Fields/Wikimedia Commons

Africa has an abundant and readily available supply of resources for renewable energy power generation, as well as wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) power plants. The costs of solar technologies, especially solar PV, have been rapidly declining over the past few years in Africa, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is now competitive with many other conventional generation technologies, especially for distributed, off-grid and hybrid solutions.

In South Africa, PV is now able to compete with municipal distribution tariffs in several instances. The storage ability of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) counteracts the argument that renewables are unable to serve a baseload function in countries such as South Africa -- with certain operational CSP projects having storage capabilities of up to 15 hours -- while the aggregation of PV plants has been proven to substantially reduce the variability of the power generated to within an acceptable level of variability of around 5 percent, according to Frost & Sullivan.

Asia-Pacific dominated global solar PV demand in 2014 and will account for approximately 46 percent of annual installed solar PV capacity, says Frost & Sullivan, with China, Japan, India, and Australia continuing to be the top four countries driving regional demand.

In Europe, the market continues to grow. In 2006, Germany was the first in the EU to incent solar PV power with feed-in-tariffs, and the market installed capacity has expanded rapidly and is still the largest solar power market in the world, the researcher says. By 2020, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom, collectively, plan to install more than 75 GW of solar PV capacity.

In the meantime, the United States has become a lucrative destination, according to Frost & Sullivan, as the price of solar PV systems in the region has declined due to the reduction in imports from China following the imposition of anti-dumping and illegal subsidy tariffs on imports.

"The global solar power market is benefitting from various incentive schemes in the form of tradable green energy certificates, FiTs, subsidies, and tax rebates for the use of renewable energy for power generation. However, these incentive schemes continue to be very heterogeneous, making solar PV penetration rates vary widely based on local and regional policies," said Pritil Gunjan, Frost & Sullivan Energy & Environmental industry analyst. "Drafting strict clean energy regulations and offering adequate subsidies to the renewable energy sector will be essential. Equally important will be maintaining clarity in the incentive guidelines for solar power so that project developers, investors and customers are not misled and can make proper investment decisions."

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By Barbara Vergetis Lundin

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3. Global nuclear caution not stopping emerging countries

Globally, residential and commercial buildings account for 35 to 40 percent of total final energy consumption. As the global economy becomes increasingly more constrained by energy cost and availability -- as well as energy-related environmental regulations -- many countries are looking to identify measures to address energy demand issues.

The increasing deployment of energy efficiency retrofits for commercial and public buildings provides an important pathway for increasing energy security, decreasing energy demand, as well as demand for new energy production and distribution facilities, and reducing GHG emissions, according to Navigant Research. Energy efficiency retrofits can also be used by commercial building owners and tenants to support greening efforts.

Regulations and policy, technological advances, and cost reductions are all driving increased investment in energy efficiency retrofits. In fact, cumulative investment in commercial building energy efficiency retrofits will total $959 billion from 2014 through 2023, Navigant predicts.

"Led by the Asia-Pacific region, the global market for energy efficiency commercial building retrofits is expected to grow at more than 7 percent a year through 2023," said Eric Bloom, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. "While government mandates play an important part in driving this growth, many retrofit projects are being undertaken on a voluntary basis, as corporate sustainability initiatives spread."

The payback periods for energy efficiency retrofit projects are slowly decreasing, according to the research, but remain a critical factor for most building owners and managers.

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4. FERC license will enhance SMUD hydro project

The world's nuclear power generation decreased in 2011 and 2012 in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, but the market is gradually recovering -- with large-scale capacity additions expected in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, GlobalData forecasts. In fact, GlobalData sees global nuclear installed capacity increasing from 371 GW in 2013 to 517 GW by 2025, driven by emerging markets.

"The after effects of the Fukushima meltdown go beyond the decline of nuclear power generation in Japan," Pranav Srivastava, GlobalData's associate analyst for nuclear power, said. "Germany and Switzerland are now planning to phase out nuclear power, while others -- such as China, Japan, France and the U.K. -- have developed strong frameworks for nuclear safety and performed stress tests on their existing nuclear reactors to ensure safe operations."

Despite this more cautious global approach, GlobalData says that the emerging nuclear countries in the APAC region are building more than 20 nuclear reactors and are planning to add 13.8 GW of nuclear power by 2030, led by 6.8 GW of additions in Vietnam.

"High electricity demand is a key driver for nuclear power development in Vietnam. The country plans to construct 10 new reactors by 2030 and has signed a number of co-operative governmental agreements regarding the peaceful use of nuclear energy with Russia, China, India, South Korea and Argentina," Srivastava said. "Russia received a construction deal to build the first two reactors in 2009, while Japan won the deal for the third and fourth reactors the following year."

Nuclear power is being driven by its capacity to produce large amounts of electricity and, therefore, meet the growing demand for power, as well as its potential to counteract concerns over volatile fossil fuel prices, oil reserve shortages and rising carbon emissions, according to the analyst.

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5. Nearly 20 Boston Metro areas building solar PV projects

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has issued the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD) a new 50-year license for the continued operation of the Upper American River Project (UARP) -- a 688 MW hydroelectric project. The UARP consists of 11 reservoirs and eight powerhouses spanning an area from the crest of the Sierra Nevada Mountains to the foothill communities of the Sacramento valley and provides about 15 percent of SMUD's customers' yearly power needs.

The new license combines enhancement of environmental attributes at existing UARP facilities with a new opportunity to expand the project's contribution to renewable energy development.

"A new 50-year license… allows SMUD to continue to generate large quantities of non-carbon-emitting energy over the next 50 years from our most valuable, lowest-cost power supply," said SMUD General Manager and CEO Arlen Orchard.

The license contains a number of operational changes, recreation upgrades and monitoring programs, as well as a project expansion that will further enhance natural resources in the project area and energy-related value derived from the hydro project.

Under the new license, SMUD will coordinate UARP operations with the downstream Chili Bar Hydroelectric Project, which is operated by Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), resulting in a set of guaranteed whitewater boating flows in the popular 20-mile commercial whitewater boating reach of the South Fork American River -- downstream of PG&E's project. In essence, whitewater boating flows of a specified volume and duration will be provided every weekend for the next 50 years, benefiting the thriving $30 million per year commercial rafting industry in El Dorado County.

The new license also directs SMUD to move forward with the design and potential construction of the proposed Iowa Hill pumped-storage development, which circulates water between a lower and upper reservoir, and would add a significant level of operating flexibility that would help SMUD balance supply and demand on the grid. Further, it would play a crucial role in allowing SMUD to develop larger supplies of intermittent wind and solar power.

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FERC seeks hydro pilot projects

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