Nature Geoscience contents: October 2014 Volume 7 Number 10 pp689-776

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TABLE OF CONTENTS October 2014 Volume 7, Issue 10 Editorial Correspondence Commentary News and Views Perspective Review Letters Articles Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement Nature Communications soon to be fully open access   From 20th October Nature Communications, will become fully open access for all new submissions. If an author has a manuscript they wish to submit to the journal via the subscription route, they must submit before 20th October. After this date all new submissions, if accepted, will be published open access and an article processing charge (APC) will apply. For any questions on the switch, open access or advice on policies and funding, visit our website, read the press release or contact our dedicated support team at openaccess@nature.com.   Editorial Top Over to the diplomats   p689 doi:10.1038/ngeo2266 Guidance for mitigation action should come from the insights that global mean temperatures respond to cumulative carbon emissions and that there are risks beyond warming alone. Momentum for the negotiations requires a sense of opportunity. Correspondence Top Steps for success of OCO-2   p691 John B. Miller, Pieter P. Tans and Manuel Gloor doi:10.1038/ngeo2255 Biological impact on Greenland's albedo   p691 Liane G. Benning, Alexandre M. Anesio, Stefanie Lutz and Martyn Tranter doi:10.1038/ngeo2260 Commentary Top Cumulative emissions and climate policy   pp692 - 693 David J. Frame, Adrian H. Macey and Myles R. Allen doi:10.1038/ngeo2254 The emerging scientific focus on cumulative carbon emissions may make climate negotiations harder. But, it serves to clarify the scale and scope of climate mitigation needed to meet potential temperature targets. News and Views Top Planetary science: Plate tectonics on ice   pp695 - 696 Michelle M. Selvans doi:10.1038/ngeo2256 Jupiter's icy moon Europa is criss-crossed by extensional features. A tectonic reconstruction suggests that Europa's extension is balanced by subduction — if so, Earth may not be the only planetary body with a plate tectonic system. See also: Article by Kattenhorn & Prockter Biogeochemistry: Microbial flexibility   p696 Alicia Newton doi:10.1038/ngeo2265 Earthquakes: Hydrogeochemical precursors   pp697 - 698 S. E. Ingebritsen and M. Manga doi:10.1038/ngeo2261 Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets. See also: Letter by Skelton et al. Palaeoceanography: Tectonically driven upwelling   pp698 - 699 Johan Etourneau doi:10.1038/ngeo2258 Upwelling within the highly productive Benguela current off the Namibian coast began in, and intensified throughout, the Neogene epoch. Model simulations indicate its development was intimately connected to evolving topography and mountain uplift in Africa. See also: Letter by Jung et al. Climate change: Dichotomy of drought and deluge   pp700 - 701 Richard P. Allan doi:10.1038/ngeo2243 Freshwater deficits and heavy rainfall have been projected to intensify in a warming climate. An analysis of hydrological data suggests that past changes in wet and dry extremes were more complex than a simple amplification of existing patterns. See also: Letter by Greve et al. Coastal processes: Storm-proofing with marshes   pp701 - 702 Sergio Fagherazzi doi:10.1038/ngeo2262 Shorelines are vulnerable to the destructive waves and water levels of increasingly frequent extreme storm events. Wave tank experiments demonstrate that salt marsh vegetation dissipates wave energy and withstands extreme storm conditions. See also: Letter by Möller et al. Geoscience JOBS of the week Assistant / Associate Professor in Sedimentary Geology (ID 683639) Aarhus University Research associate (postdoc) in geophysics University of Luxembourg Tenure-Track and Tenured Scientific Staff - Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry Department Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Research Associate The Petroleum Institute Postdoctoral Fellowship Carnegie Institution of Washington More Science jobs from Perspective Top Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections   pp703 - 708 Theodore G. Shepherd doi:10.1038/ngeo2253 Scientific confidence in climate change effects is much higher for aspects related to global patterns of surface temperature, than for circulation. Circulation will remain hard to predict, necessitating a risk-based approach to decision making. Review Top Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets   pp709 - 715 P. Friedlingstein, R. M. Andrew, J. Rogelj, G. P. Peters, J. G. Canadell et al. doi:10.1038/ngeo2248 In order to limit climate warming, CO2 emissions must remain below fixed quota. An evaluation of past emissions suggests that at 2014 emissions rates, the total quota will probably be exhausted within the next 30 years. Letters Top Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land   pp716 - 721 Peter Greve, Boris Orlowsky, Brigitte Mueller, Justin Sheffield, Markus Reichstein et al. doi:10.1038/ngeo2247 Past continental dryness trends are difficult to assess. A comprehensive analysis of hundreds of combinations of data sets suggests that only 24.6% of the global land area have been exposed to robust dryness changes since 1948. See also: News and Views by Allan Optimum vegetation height and density for inorganic sedimentation in deltaic marshes   pp722 - 726 William Nardin and Douglas A. Edmonds doi:10.1038/ngeo2233 Plants may enhance sedimentation and help deltas to keep up with rising sea levels. Numerical simulations show that intermediate vegetation height and density are optimal, whereas too much vegetation inhibits sediment deposition in deltaic marshes. Wave attenuation over coastal salt marshes under storm surge conditions   pp727 - 731 Iris Möller, Matthias Kudella, Franziska Rupprecht, Tom Spencer, Maike Paul et al. doi:10.1038/ngeo2251 Salt marshes protect coastlines against waves. Wave flume experiments show that marsh vegetation causes substantial wave dissipation and prevents erosion of the underlying surface, even during extreme storm surge conditions. See also: News and Views by Fagherazzi Rapid sea-level rise along the Antarctic margins in response to increased glacial discharge   pp732 - 735 Craig D. Rye, Alberto C. Naveira Garabato, Paul R. Holland, Michael P. Meredith, A. J. George Nurser et al. doi:10.1038/ngeo2230 Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves reduces the salinity of the coastal seas. Satellite and model data suggest that the freshwater discharge has also caused coastal Antarctic sea level to rise by about 2 mm yr-1 more than the regional mean. Microbial shaping of sedimentary wrinkle structures   pp736 - 740 G. Mariotti, S. B. Pruss, J. T. Perron and T. Bosak doi:10.1038/ngeo2229 Wrinkle structures in ancient sedimentary environments are enigmatic. Wave-tank experiments suggest that wrinkle structures are shaped by microbial mat fragments that are moved by waves over sandy-bed surfaces, and thus are morphological biosignatures. Uplift of Africa as a potential cause for Neogene intensification of the Benguela upwelling system   pp741 - 747 Gerlinde Jung, Matthias Prange and Michael Schulz doi:10.1038/ngeo2249 The Benguela current cooled over the past 12 million years. Numerical modelling suggests that uplift of parts of Africa during this time enhanced coastal low level winds and promoted greater upwelling of cool subsurface waters. See also: News and Views by Etourneau Persistence of carbon release events through the peak of early Eocene global warmth   pp748 - 751 Sandra Kirtland Turner, Philip F. Sexton, Christopher D. Charles and Richard D. Norris doi:10.1038/ngeo2240 A series of unusual, greenhouse-gas-induced warming events occurred in the Eocene. An isotope reconstruction of these hyperthermals indicates multiple events of a constant size and frequency, consistent with orbital forcing of the carbon cycle. Changes in groundwater chemistry before two consecutive earthquakes in Iceland   pp752 - 756 Alasdair Skelton, Margareta Andren, Hrefna Kristmannsdottir, Gabrielle Stockmann, Carl-Magnus Morth et al. doi:10.1038/ngeo2250 Precursor events to earthquakes are rarely reproduced. Measurement of groundwater chemistry in Iceland between 2008 and 2013 reveals distinct changes prior to two consecutive >M5 earthquakes. Seismic precursors linked to super-critical fluids at oceanic transform faults   pp757 - 761 Louis Geli, Jean-Michel Piau, Robert Dziak, Vincent Maury, Delphine Fitzenz et al. doi:10.1038/ngeo2244 Earthquakes on oceanic transform faults are often preceded by foreshock swarms. A theoretical model suggests that circulating hydrothermal fluids, which compress as the fault rocks expand and deform, cause this precursor seismic activity. Articles Top Evidence for subduction in the ice shell of Europa   pp762 - 767 Simon A. Kattenhorn and Louise M. Prockter doi:10.1038/ngeo2245 Despite widespread evidence for extension, there have been few signs of contraction on the icy surface of Jupiter's Europa. Evidence for a subduction-like convergent boundary suggests that Europa may have active plate tectonics. See also: News and Views by Selvans Vertical structure of stratospheric water vapour trends derived from merged satellite data   pp768 - 776 M. I. Hegglin, D. A. Plummer, T. G. Shepherd, J. F. Scinocca, J. Anderson et al. doi:10.1038/ngeo2236 Stratospheric water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. Merging individual satellite data sets with a chemistry–climate model reveals that water vapour levels in the lower and mid-stratosphere have been decreasing since 1988. 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