Better than Europe

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Better than Europe Alas Obama, you may be unpopular and desperately trying to paint a rosy picture of robust and rebounding economy, but you can be thankful you're neither Merkel nor Hollande nor Cameron. Here in the US, if you steer people clear of Detroit and keep them from looking too closely at the jobs data (or really any government data for that matter), you can put up the smoke and mirrors that things are getting better. It's a much tougher sell across the pond. From Zero Hedge: If the European triple-dip alert was barely glowing a muted red until this morning, then following the latest German PMI data, which tumbled to 49.9 from 50.3, below the 50.3 consensus, and is the first contractionary print in 15 months, then they are now screaming a bright burgundy. And while the European recession has now clearly made its way to the core, it wasn't just Germany: French PMI continued to be solidly in a contracting phase, at 48.8, unchanged from the previous month, the overall European Manufacturing PMI also missed and declined, dropping from a flash reading 50.5 to only 50.3, which was a 14 month low, with the average PMI reading for Q3 the lowest since a year ago, and as MarkIt summarized, "Eurozone manufacturing edges closer to stagnation." Have no fear, though, Mario Draghi and his monetization of Greek Junk Bonds will fix everything! Finally, not helping matters was the UK PMI which too tumbled from 52.5 (revised lower to 52.2) to 51.6, far below the 52.7 expected increase, and the lowest print since April 2013. In other words, the world's central bankers, except the Fed for now of course, have been given the MarkIt green stamp of approval to do what has so far failed to do anything to boost the global economy on a sustained basis: CTRL-P. Fire up the presses! Read Past Issues of Larry's Newsletters at TradeWithLarry.com

The markets swung back and forth yesterday, but did ultimately finish in negative territory. The wild swing were attributed to the 3rd quarter/end of month profit taking and positioning. With stocks taking wild swings, and the markets following suit, we can be set up for a similar trading session today. I suspect we go lower, but there seems to be heavy buyers around every corner. With QE coming to an end this month, that could be the catalyst for a sell off. Couple that with the HK protests and global market weakness, and you can easily see why the markets could sell off. There is more than enough reason to believe that. I do however, do not discount that there are value seekers everywhere. They continue to buy, and only are looking for buys at the moment. So the rest of this week will be telling. Do we squeeze lower and make new swing lows? Do we buy the dips and rally back to new highs? Read More

TECHNICAL DATA ES 1972.50/1964.00 POC 1965.25 YM 17021/16953 NQ 4055.00/4035.00

​Today a review on the most important factor in determining the price of an option:​ The volatility of the underlying financial instrument is the most important factor in calculating an option's price. Volatility is the variable that fluctuates most and thus affects the price of an option the most. It measures the amount that an underlying asset is expected to change in a given period of time. However, volatility DOES NOT indicate a bias toward price movement in one direction or the other. Volatility can be seen as the degree to which the price of the instrument tends to move over time versus one that sits still. An increase in volatility increases the value of both call and put options; a decrease in volatility lowers the value of both call and put options. A nervous or unstable market causes more volatility and thus higher option premiums. A stable market has less volatility, thus reducing the amount of an option's premium. Read More

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