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2015/07/10

This Bad News is Really Great News

On news of the Greek referendum,  a Chinese stock market crash, and a potential Iran nuclear deal, oil investors fled for the hills as prices collapsed nearly $10...
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This Bad News is Really Great News
By Keith Kohl | Friday, July 10th, 2015
Keith Kohl

Many oil investors will look back at this week and say something like, “Man, that was rough.”

And they'd be right... in one sense.

On news of the Greek referendum, a Chinese stock market crash, and a potential Iran nuclear deal, oil investors fled for the hills as prices collapsed nearly $10, stifling what had been a steady recovery from the bear market.

WTI2Month2015

One look at the chart for West Texas Intermediate over the last two months, and you could easily agree with the pessimistic investors among us that see no hope for oil.

Every time there's good news, some other catastrophe kills investment, prices, and any optimism we once held.

But this is just one perspective... and in my opinion, it kills your chance at real returns.

I look at a drop like we had this week — heck, even the one we had last fall — and I say, “It's time to buy again.”

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Sure, on the face of it, that's a counterintuitive philosophy. I mean, who wants to buy something that's losing value?

Someone who knows the value will always go up.

Plus, I also know that many other investors are fleeing oil, so in true capitalist fashion, I plan to buy up what they've left behind and sell it back to them when it's worth double what it is now.

That's how investors should play this drop. I mean, it's not like Americans are going to stop buying gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks anytime soon.

Besides, China is in desperate need of a recovery in its markets, and the best way for it to achieve that is through economic development, which is impossible without oil.

So investors should be greedy now or lose their shirts later...

It's Not All That Bad

While it's easy to read something like, “Buy now because prices are low,” action is a whole different animal.

When you look at that red percentage on an oil driller's stock ticker or see the chart above and the steep drop from this past week, releasing funds to invest in oil is anathema compared to our normal mode of operations.

But, again, this is all about perspective. Take a look at this chart instead:

WTI1Year

Compared to the drop last fall, the one this week is negligible. It just decreases the risk on any investment we make.

And if you look at oil prices this time last year, you'll see that WTI, shale stocks, and other oil companies in the U.S. have a lot of recovery left.

At this point, if you buy now, it's all about time: You buy, you wait, and you collect your money when prices recover. You'll end up collecting a whole lot of money if you wait for prices to return to early 2014 levels, too.

Shale oil drillers like Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD) are already planning more rigs for later this year and the beginning of next year.

Pioneer said it will add eight new rigs in Texas in 2016, which would bring it back to the same level before the bear market.

Other companies are doing the same in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian, and Niobrara.

Oil firms want to add more rigs now because they know they can get great prices on services, equipment, and labor while oil is down. These companies know investing low pays big dividends over time.

We should replicate this strategy, especially now that oil took a few lumps this week.

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Deals, Rigs, and Sales

Essentially, what I'm trying to say is that oil is on sale.

It's like when you go to buy a car and the dealer wants to get rid of the older models before the new ones come in. You get a deal because the dealership is oversupplied with last year's model.

Or when you go to a florist two days after Valentine's Day... you get a deal on a dozen roses because the florist has to get rid of them or else they'll be garbage.

Right now, oil stocks are on sale. The market is oversupplied, so stock sellers are willing to give away their shares for less for whatever reason: impatience, ineptitude, lack of fortitude, etc.

Now, I will issue a warning: This weekend, we could see a new Greece deal and a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States. If so, oil prices could fall further, opening up another great buying opportunity...

This is a great time to invest in oil.

It just so happens I've prepared an entire report on this oil sale and how investors can make money by buying now.

During this presentation, I divulge three stocks that I feel are the best value and most likely to see big gains from this downturn.

One stock trades around $5 per share right now, but based on its reserves and production, it should trade around $20 per share when oil recovers.

If you want to own it before that time (you should), you can learn more about it here.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl Signature

Keith Kohl

follow basic@KeithKohl1 on Twitter

A true insider in the energy markets, Keith is one of few financial reporters to have visited the Alberta oil sands. His research has helped thousands of investors capitalize from the rapidly changing face of energy. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital as well as Investment Director of Angel Publishing's Energy Investor. For years, Keith has been providing in-depth coverage of the Bakken, the Haynesville Shale, and the Marcellus natural gas formations — all ahead of the mainstream media. For more on Keith, go to his editor's page.

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