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2015/08/13

[TA DAILY] 200-Day MA

There are so many "technical" indicators that people look at on a chart that it could drag a 

 
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Larry's Morning Commentary

200-Day MA
 
 

There are so many "technical" indicators that people look at on a chart that it could drag a conversation on for hours, maybe days or weeks; however, there is only one that should get a great deal of attention: the 200-day moving average.

The 200-day moving average is a technical indicator, versus fundamental, that even the most boisterous Wall Street fundamental analyst will mention when it is close to being broken/supported.  And that is happening with regularity now.

Look at the chart below: every time the ES has come close to it, the market has rallied like a champion. On the far left of the chart, in October of last year, yu will see that the S&P500 had fallen well below the 200-day MA, which was weak enough, and scary enough, for a Fed member to suggest QE4...then it exploded. 

Coincidence?  No way!

Was yesterday's mega-rally off the low with NO economic news a coincidence with the 200-day MA?  No way!  Watch it carefully.

 

Trade well and follow the trend, not the perma-bull OR perma-bear "experts."

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banking mafia.

 
 
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It looked as if we would mimic the previous trading session. A huge gap down, followed by aggressive selling. We approached the swing low of early July in the SPX, and then it just happened. Furious buying took place in the markets stocks shot up off their lows and we did not stop. The markets continued it's climb...

 
 
 
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TECHNICAL DATA
ES 2075.25 / 2051.25
POC

2053.75

YM 17,295 / 17,115
NQ

4514.50 / 4444.50

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How do we determine what strike to target when putting together a directional signal for earnings? We can use two pieces types of data to achieve this. First, we can look back at the historical performance over a period of time. We use two years worth of data. What is the average move? Also what is important to gauge the predictability...

 
 
 
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