| | | | | Tuesday, September 1, 2015 | |
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Eric Fry, keeping an eye out for low-flying drones, reports...
In today's edition of The Non-Dollar Report, we bring you something a little different - a story about investing in drones. While this topic is not expressly "non-dollar," it is definitely a worldwide topic.
And it may surprise you to learn that the country producing the largest number of drones each year is not the USA. Another item that may surprise you is that commercial and civilian demand for drones is likely to overtake military demand within the next few years.
The drone trend is well underway, and there's no stopping it now. Before long, we'll inhabit a "Jetsons world" full of flying robots and doodads of all shapes and sizes, as Sean Brodrick explains in the column below...
Keeping Up With the Drones-es
One of the biggest innovations of the 21st century is drones. It's projected that the worldwide market for commercial and civilian drones will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% between 2015 and 2020.
And then there is the military side of drones. Analysts at IHS Inc. say that the U.S. Air Force - which currently has 10,000 drones - could eventually see half of its $200 billion budget go to drone aircraft.
Some drones will get bigger - as big as the largest aircraft, and able to carry fleets of smaller flying drones. Others will get smaller - the size of bullets.
Drones are basically flying robots. And the flying robots are coming - swarms of them. They are coming in ways you might not have expected. The good news is, there are plenty of ways to make a profit.
Here are some of the latest developments...
China has just unveiled a drone that is similar to the U.S.-made Reaper. The new Chinese drone, Rainbow 5, looks like a carbon copy of a Reaper. And it probably is, stolen by China's brigade of army hackers. The Rainbow 5 can carry a payload of 3 tons and has wall-penetrating radar.
China has another drone, "Divine Eagle," that is specially built to detect and intercept stealth aircraft like America's new F-35.
Interestingly, China is the world's biggest producer of drones. It has focused on the civilian market - until now...
The arms race in drones is on. The arms race in drone hardware is just beginning. I told you how the U.S. Air Force has 10,000 drones and plans to have many more. According to some estimates, China plans to produce upward of 41,800 land- and sea-based drones, worth about $10.5 billion, between 2014 and 2023.
Meanwhile, Russia plans to invest $10 billion in drones for its armed forces through 2020.
Boeing shoots down drones with lasers! Boeing (NYSE: BA) is rolling out its newest weapon. It's called the Compact Laser Weapon System (CLWS). And it shoots down drones. This laser "cannon" has a strength of 2 kilowatts. It fits into four suitcase-sized boxes, can be set up in minutes, and is controlled with a standard Xbox 360 controller.
The weapons system can focus on a target located at a tactical distance up to "many hundreds of meters" away. And it solves the conundrum of using a missile that may cost up to $3 million to shoot down a drone that costs only a few thousand dollars.
Does 2 kilowatts not sound like a lot? That's 2,000 watts. Go take a look at what a "mere" 40-watt laser shotgun can do!
To be sure, Moscow claims to already have a microwave weapon that can knock down drones from up to 6.2 miles away. But give me a "frickin' laser beam" any day, as Doctor Evil would say.
Drones equipped with lasers are in the works, and we should see those in a few years.
It's now legal for police to use weaponized drones. North Dakota is allowing its police to fly drones armed with Tasers, tear gas, rubber bullets, pepper spray and sound cannons.
Gee, I can't see how that could possibly go wrong.
For now, the police can use only nonlethal force with drones.
Funny story: The bill allowing police to weaponize drones was originally a bill written by state representative Rick Becker with another purpose entirely. Becker wanted to require police to obtain a search warrant before using drones to seek out criminal evidence.
That was before a lobbyist with ties to police got hold of it. After a little bit of nudging here and a little bit of arm-twisting there... Ta-da! Police drones can deploy Tasers and tear gas.
Rep. Becker says he will push for the removal of the nonlethal force provision in 2017. Good luck, kid.
Small and Deadly. U.S. Marines have developed a small unmanned aircraft known as Switchblade. The 5-pound drone is small enough to be carried in a backpack and carries an explosive with the same charge as a grenade. The Switchblade can make a "kamikaze" attack on a target.
In tests, the Switchblade has been deployed from the field and even out the door of an Osprey aircraft. The Switchblade has already been used in Afghanistan and is made by AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV).
Drones replace oil roughnecks. The use of drones in the oil field is soaring. Oil companies use them to inspect pipelines and offshore oil rigs.
The drones aren't just cheaper than people, they're faster, too. "What we can capture in five days using a drone could take eight weeks with human inspectors," a spokesman for one of the companies doing drone inspections for oil companies told Bloomberg.
Drones have many more industrial uses than just the oil patch. Big mining companies use them to inspect railway lines and bridges, check stockpiles of ore and more.
How You Can Profit
All in all, drones are the future. And you might as well invest in the future. You could buy a company like AeroVironment, which is scooping up one military contract after another.
But if you want less risk, consider Robo-Stox Global Robotics & Automation ETF (Nasdaq: ROBO), which gives you exposure to more than 80 stocks connected to the robot and drone businesses. And AeroVironment is the second-biggest holding, at 2% of assets - right behind robotic surgical tool maker Accuray Inc. (Nasdaq: ARAY) at 2.2%.
Whatever you do, don't ignore this big trend.
All the best,
Sean Brodrick
For The Non-Dollar Report
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