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2015/10/02

What Trump and Other Economic Pessimists Don't Get

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What Trump and Other Economic Pessimists Don't Get

Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club


Alexander Green In two Investment U columns last week (one, two) responding to Donald Trump's pessimistic assessment of the U.S. economy, I mentioned a few counter examples.

To wit: We recently surpassed Russia to become the world's largest oil and gas producer. We dominate the world in technological innovation, medicine, agriculture, finance, communications, social media and entertainment. The dollar - the world's reserve currency - recently hit a 10-year high. No country attractsmore direct foreign investment. The U.S. stock market
"Yes, this morning's numbers on housing and wages were not good. And I'm familiar with the dysfunction in Washington, the rise of ISIS, the problems in Greece and the size of the federal debt...

"But it's interesting how many investors either can't believe or don't want to know anything positive."
has outperformed all others since the financial crisis. And U.S. household net worth just hit an all-time record $85.7 million.

The response of some readers to these easily verifiable facts? Disbelief, denial, outrage and anger.

"Mr. Green must be on another planet or a shill for the establishment," wrote David B.

"Your lack of insight and clarity on these matters is appalling!" claimed Jim R.

Even my colleague Mark Skousen wrote a column chiding me for my "excessively bullish view of America and Wall Street."

For the record, I am neither bullish nor bearish on the stock market. Not because I'm not good at timing the market but because no one is. (That's a column for another day, however.)

For now, let me pick up where I left off and also note that the U.S. economy grew at 3.7% in the second quarter. Home prices rose 4.7% in the 12 months ended in July - and are back near record levels. Personal spending advanced again in August. Inflation just hit a six-year low. Corporate balance sheets - with over $2 trillion in cash - have never been stronger. And we are in a period of all-time record corporate profits, all-time record profit margins, and all-time record profits as a percentage of GDP.

Yes, this morning's numbers on housing and wages were not good. And I'm familiar with the dysfunction in Washington, the rise of ISIS, the problems in Greece and the size of the federal debt. (I'll have a column on that last and most important problem next week.)

But it's interesting how many investors either can't believe or don't want to know anything positive.

"Why is that?" a fellow editor asked.

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In my view, there are four primary reasons.

  1. Media Negativity. We don't turn on the evening news to hear about people living lives of peace, prosperity and tranquility. We tune in to hear about crime, war, corruption, pollution, political dysfunction and natural disasters. So the media delivers it - in spades. Long-term incremental progress - the kind that has created the longest life spans and highest living standards in history - simply isn't deemed newsworthy.
  1. Lack of Historical Perspective. Too few realize just how tough life was for our ancestors. Most performed backbreaking work for a subsistence living. They lived in small homes without running water or electricity, endured high infant mortality rates, and died relatively young, often of diseases like polio, chicken pox, diphtheria or typhoid fever that we never think about. Your great-grandparents would view your life today - with its life-extending healthcare, cutting-edge technology and modern conveniences - as the realization of some utopia. (And if you really believe things were better back in the good old days, I have one word for you: dentistry.)
  1. Moral Superiority. People compete for moral authority - for who gets to be considered more noble - and pessimists are generally seen as more morally engaged than optimists. Individuals who ruminate about negative developments - climate change, income inequality, the erosion of the family, the coarsening of the culture, the growth of the federal debt - appear more morally engaged than optimists who can seem apathetic or out of touch.
  1. Apprehension About the Future. Despite widespread prosperity, some folks remain convinced that it cannot be enjoyed because of the coming (take your pick) economic meltdown, political crisis, government shutdown, fiscal cliff, terrorist attack, population explosion, bird flu epidemic, mineral shortage, debt default, environmental catastrophe or ancient Mayan forecast of impending doom. (Or is that behind us now?)

Granted, future peace and prosperity are not guaranteed. But neither is Armageddon. Alarmists of all stripes have been telling us to cup our groins and curl into the fetal position for centuries now and things really haven't gone their way.

Yes, we face problems, many of them serious. But human beings, technology and free markets now operate as an enormous problem-solving machine, improving our lives in virtually every way.

Some folks don't understand this. Consequently, they never invested in cellular technology, cable television, computers or software, aerospace, medical devices, biotechnology, e-commerce, social media, robotics, smartphones, or the thousands of companies that benefit from these developments.

Instead they bought gold and silver, dug a bunker out back, and filled it with rifles, ammunition and freeze-dried food.

Wish I could say I'm sorry it hasn't worked out for them.

Good investing,

Alex

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