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2016/01/30

Let’s Not Get Down in the Dumps!

Economy and Markets
ECONOMY & MARKETS | January 30, 2016

Let's Not Get Down in the Dumps!

By Chris Cimorelli, Managing Editor, Economy & Markets

I wish you could've heard the investment committee meeting we held earlier this week.

A couple times a month the Dent Research team gets together to discuss our general outlook on the market, and what positions our editors might add in their investment services.

The general consensus is that the market has turned bearish, and Harry's long-term forecast finally looks to be coming to fruition. The question is when the decisive move lower will occur – the move from which there will be no turning back.

Adam offered a unique perspective which we hadn't heard that he also discussed earlier this week. His "Kickstarter Signal" suggests we could see a more substantial rally in the short-term, even though broader indicators keep suggesting a major top is already in, and a major crash is on the way later this year.

So at this point it looks like the market could bounce. And oil is already bouncing on rumors that Saudi Arabia and Russia may finally cut back production a bit. Everything doesn't go down at once or in one fell swoop. All this aside, it's really shaky ground we're standing on.

U.S. GDP disappointed in the fourth quarter at 0.7% as we expected. Japan is so desperate to revitalize its economy that it has adopted negative interest rates after saying it wouldn't – another surprise after seemingly endless QE. The central banks of both countries are still saying they'll achieve 2% inflation in the long run.

The Fed has been saying that for years.

But we don't want to get too pessimistic. Near-term, the markets have gotten very oversold recently. And besides, whichever way the market goes, our commitment is finding ways to help Dent Research readers profit in this choppy, downward-facing market.

To invoke Adam's words in Economy & Markets on Friday:

"In 2013, almost everything went up. Last year, almost everything went down. And since prudent investors have always had a difficult time navigating environments of heightened uncertainty, excessive volatility and spiraling stock prices… 2015 ripped a hole through traditional portfolios and investors' business-as-usual mindsets. And according to Harry 2016 isn't going to be any better for wishful thinking "buy-and-hopers." But my message today is NOT one of doom, gloom or despair. It's one of hope and confidence."

You don't just have to sit in cash (though definitely keep some!). You don't have to be like investors in Japan, Denmark or Sweden and pay the bank to hold your money. There are still returns out there for investors who are willing to find them.

We're finding them in currencies… bonds… and of course, the short side.

So we don't need to look at the state of financial markets with fear and dread. It just is what it is.

This week, Charles and John hosted an exclusive presentation called "Earnings Exposed," tipping off thousands of your fellow readers to ways they can identify companies to profit on – by shorting them.

Let me give you an idea of why today's market environment is so ripe for this kind of trading strategy. I'll quote John directly from a note he sent to Forensic Investor readers yesterday:

"While 71% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported an earnings beat, the quality of those earnings is low. Nearly every company is using "adjusted" earnings to boost reported results. More importantly, only 48% of companies have beat their revenue estimates, which is down from 56% on average over the last eight quarters."

And given that investor sentiment has been so low this month, it's likely we could see a bounce in the major stock indexes. That would be a great time to load up on your investments to the downside.

John has more details for you in this recording of Thursday's presentation. You can watch it here.

Chris Cimorelli
Managing Editor, Economy & Markets
economyandmarkets@dentresearch.com



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