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2016/09/30

CAUTION: Can a Deutsche Bank Panic Crush Stocks?

Rude Awakening
September 30, 2016
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Deutsche Bank

CAUTION: Can a Deutsche Bank Panic Crush Stocks?

  • Time for another crisis?
  • Ignoring emotional investors
  • Plus: Some important trading clues

Greg Guenthner coming to you from Baltimore, MD...

Greg GuenthnerIt's been a bad week for banks.

U.S. markets caught a whiff of Deutsche Bank's rotting corpse early Thursday. Traders lost their lunch a little before 1 p.m., sending the major averages into a tailspin. The Dow led the way lower. By the closing bell, the big board had dropped nearly 200 points.

The catalyst for the move was apparently a lone Bloomberg article highlighting that 10 hedge funds doing business with the bank are reducing exposure.

"The funds, a small subset of the more than 800 clients in the bank's hedge fund business, have moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document seen by Bloomberg News," the article reads. "Among them are Izzy Englander's $34 billion Millennium Partners, Chris Rokos's $4 billion Rokos Capital Management, and the $14 billion Capula Investment Management, said a person familiar with the situation who declined to be identified talking about confidential client matters."

So there you have it. Luckily, Deutsche Bank stock is no stranger to stress these days. Shares dropped to new lows on the news.

But I have to ask… is anyone really surprised?

European bank stocks have been stuck near their crisis lows for years now. Deutsche Bank's chart is a complete disaster. The stock has gone nowhere but straight down for more than a year now.

Just looks at this chart:

Deutsche Drops

Meanwhile in the states, Wells Fargo's John Stumpf was forced to endure another brutal beating from lawmakers.

"One by one, Democrats and Republicans alike took turns ripping apart Mr. Stumpf and what took place at the bank he leads," The New York Times reports. "They denounced the actions as 'theft,' 'a criminal enterprise,' identity fraud, an outrage and a devastating blow to the entire banking industry."

Don't cry for John Stumpf. I'm sure he slept just fine last night on a pile of money (never mind the $41 million in forfeited stock and almost $3 million in docked pay).

Of course, the bad vibes surrounding banks are getting worse this morning. Deutsche continues to drop, dragging the rest of Europe's esteemed financial institutions down with it.

But are investors overeating? The major averages are no more volatile than they were to begin the month. But all of the squealing over yesterday's DB news would have someone believe the markets were in a complete tailspin. That hasn't happened—at least not yet.

JosephFahmy

For most of this year, the market has forced us to be incredibly selective with our trading dollars. Dangerous whipsaw action threatened countless potential trades. But select stocks are bubbling up under the surface of these scary headlines. That's given us even more opportunities to book gains—even as some choppy action has returned to the major averages.

Until our speculative trades start to break down, we see no reason to cut and run just yet—no matter how scary the headlines get… 

Sincerely,

Greg Guenthner

[Ed. Note: Send your feedback here: rude@agorafinancial.com - and follow me on Twitter: @GregGuenthner]


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Rude Numbers

When to Buy... When to Sell
49

points dropped from the Nasdaq Composite yesterday. That's a loss of nearly 1%...

49%

of all stocks trading on major U.S. exchanges are now below their respective 50-day moving averages...

$47.71

buys a barrel of crude today. Oil is down only 12 cents in early trade...

$1,326

is where you'll find gold futures this morning. The yellow metal is hanging tight so far today...

2,147

marks the spot for S&P futures before the morning bell. Stocks are set to open at breakeven today...


Rude Trends

When to Buy... When to Sell

"I am a French Canadian interested in US and global economies," a reader says. "So I am always looking forward to reading your thoughts on the economy and other topics (like college football!)"

A French Canadian obsessed with college football? Now I've seen everything…

To be honest, I don't know too much about football. I think the last game of tackle football I played was in 1989. My official position on the team was "take a knee on the sideline"-- but I did occasionally get in the game as a human sacrifice.

Besides, it's still baseball season. I can't even think about football until the World Series is over. I have to keep my priorities straight.

Either way, I think I'll stick to trading and the markets. Fewer headaches…


Ignore At Your Own Peril

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