Nature Climate Change Contents: October 2016 Volume 6 Number 10 pp 891-974

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TABLE OF CONTENTS October 2016 Volume 6, Issue 10 Editorials Correspondence Research Highlights News and Views Correction Perspectives Review Letters Articles Subscribe   Facebook   RSS   Recommend to library   Twitter   Advertisement npj Climate and Atmospheric Science: open for submissions   An open access, online-only journal providing researchers, policy makers and the public with the latest research on weather and climate, publishing high-quality papers that focus on topics including climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, weather extremes, atmospheric composition including aerosols, the hydrological cycle and atmosphere-ocean interactions.  Find out more >>>     Editorials Top Come together p891 doi:10.1038/nclimate3134 Three IPCC special reports are scheduled, which will require the Working Groups to harmonize approaches and potentially influence the formulation of the sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Meeting global conservation challenges p891 doi:10.1038/nclimate3135 Hot on the heels of last year's Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement, representatives from the global conservation community met to set the conservation agenda that will help to implement these targets. Correspondence Top Satellite based estimates underestimate the effect of CO2 fertilization on net primary productivity pp892 - 893 Martin G. De Kauwe, Trevor F. Keenan, Belinda E. Medlyn, I. Colin Prentice and Cesar Terrer doi:10.1038/nclimate3105 Emissions from cattle farming in Brazil pp893 - 894 Fernando F. Goulart, Ivette Perfecto, John Vandermeer, Doug Boucher, M. Jahi Chappell, Geraldo Wilson Fernandes, Aldicir Scariot, Marcelo Corrêa da Silva, Washington Oliveira, Rebecca Neville, James Moore, Mercedes Bustamante, Sonia Ribeiro Carvalho and Britaldo Soares-Filho doi:10.1038/nclimate3123 Reply to 'Emissions from cattle farming in Brazil' p894 R. de Oliveira Silva, L. G. Barioni and D. Moran doi:10.1038/nclimate3124 Research Highlights Top Public opinion: Party split on climate | Detection and attribution: Coherent change across systems | Marine ecology: Corals cooled by rising seas | Agriculture: CO2 benefits for soybean News and Views Top Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise pp896 - 897 Kyle C. Armour doi:10.1038/nclimate3079 Recent observations of Earth's energy budget indicate low climate sensitivity. Research now shows that these estimates should be revised upward, resolving an apparent mismatch with climate models and implying a warmer future. See also: Letter by Mark Richardson et al. Hydrology: What brings rain to the Sahel? pp897 - 898 Michela Biasutti doi:10.1038/nclimate3080 The Sahel has suffered through severe droughts but recent years have seen increased rainfall. Now research suggests warming of the Mediterranean Sea surface may dictate future rainfall in the region. See also: Letter by Jong-yeon Park et al. Vegetation productivity: Humans did it pp898 - 899 Robert Buitenwerf doi:10.1038/nclimate3081 Observed vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere can, with a high degree of confidence, be attributed to human-caused global change. See also: Letter by Jiafu Mao et al. Nature Climate Change JOBS of the week Assistant Professor Positions in Plant Systematics, Ecohydrology, Pharmacology and / or Natural Products Discovery The University of Alabama Tenure-Track Faculty Position in Paleoecology or Conservation Biology University of Utah Director of Research European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Assistant Professor - Freshwater Ecology and Conservation The Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management (ESPM) in the College of Natural Resources at the University of California, Berkeley More Science jobs from Nature Climate Change EVENT 4th International Congress on Energy Efficiency and Energy Related Materials (ENEFM) 22.04.18 Oludeniz, Turkey More science events from Advertisement Chatham House Climate Change: Has the game changed?  10-11 October 2016, London COP 21 marked a watershed moment for global cooperation to tackle climate change, and the Paris Agreement has been hailed as a 'game changer' by many. This conference will bring together senior policymakers to explore the critical issues in the lead up to its implementation including wider political, financial and economic developments.   Correction Top Correction p899 doi:10.1038/nclimate3129 Perspectives Top Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy pp901 - 908 Christian Huggel, Ivo Wallimann-Helmer, Dáithí Stone and Wolfgang Cramer doi:10.1038/nclimate3104 The imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries leads to a procedural injustice in the attribution of responsibility for climate change. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies pp909 - 916 Damien A. Fordham, H. Resit Akçakaya, John Alroy, Frédérik Saltré, Tom M. L. Wigley and Barry W. Brook doi:10.1038/nclimate3086 The use of long-term ecological proxies in conservation planning is currently very limited. Recent advances offer exciting prospects for enhanced use of retrospective knowledge to forecast and manage ecological outcomes under global change. Review Top Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate pp917 - 926 Julie M. Jones, Sarah T. Gille, Hugues Goosse, Nerilie J. Abram, Pablo O. Canziani, Dan J. Charman, Kyle R. Clem, Xavier Crosta, Casimir de Lavergne, Ian Eisenman, Matthew H. England, Ryan L. Fogt, Leela M. Frankcombe, Gareth J. Marshall, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Adele K. Morrison, Anaïs J. Orsi, Marilyn N. Raphael, James A. Renwick, David P. Schneider, Graham R. Simpkins, Eric J. Steig, Barbara Stenni, Didier Swingedouw and Tessa R. Vance doi:10.1038/nclimate3103 Antarctic climate trends observed in the satellite record are compared with a two hundred year paleoclimate record. The satellite record is found to be too short to attribute changes to anthropogenic forcing, with natural variability overwhelming the forced signal. Letters Top European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability pp927 - 930 Joan Ballester, Xavier Rodó, Jean-Marie Robine and François Richard Herrmann doi:10.1038/nclimate3070 Mortality rates based on data representing 400 million people in 200 European regions show countries other than the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium remain exposed to increased mortality due to winter temperature fluctuations. Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth pp931 - 935 Mark Richardson, Kevin Cowtan, Ed Hawkins and Martin B. Stolpe doi:10.1038/nclimate3066 Energy budget and climate model estimates of transient climate response match when model output is processed in the same manner as an observational record. Removal of observational sampling biases infers an estimate of 1.66 °C, consistent with model estimates. See also: News and Views by Kyle C. Armour Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown pp936 - 940 Doug M. Smith, Ben B. B. Booth, Nick J. Dunstone, Rosie Eade, Leon Hermanson, Gareth S. Jones, Adam A. Scaife, Katy L. Sheen and Vikki Thompson doi:10.1038/nclimate3058 The global warming slowdown has been attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Modelling work simulates this negative phase in response to anthropogenic aerosols, indicating that external forcings may influence natural cycles. Anthropogenic Mediterranean warming essential driver for present and future Sahel rainfall pp941 - 945 Jong-yeon Park, Jürgen Bader and Daniela Matei doi:10.1038/nclimate3065 Historically the sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans has influenced Sahel rainfall. This study shows that increased surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea have driven recent rainfall increases. See also: News and Views by Michela Biasutti Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying pp946 - 949 P. C. D. Milly and K. A. Dunne doi:10.1038/nclimate3046 Tendencies towards climate-change-induced continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff and other potential-evapotranspiration-dependent metrics, may be artefactual. Consequently they may be much weaker and less extensive than previously thought. Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils pp950 - 953 Christina Schädel, Martin K.-F. Bader, Edward A. G. Schuur, Christina Biasi, Rosvel Bracho, Petr Čapek, Sarah De Baets, Kateřina Diáková, Jessica Ernakovich, Cristian Estop-Aragones, David E. Graham, Iain P. Hartley, Colleen M. Iversen, Evan Kane, Christian Knoblauch, Massimo Lupascu, Pertti J. Martikainen, Susan M. Natali, Richard J. Norby, Jonathan A. O’Donnell, Taniya Roy Chowdhury, Hana Šantrůčková, Gaius Shaver, Victoria L. Sloan, Claire C. Treat, Merritt R. Turetsky, Mark P. Waldrop and Kimberly P. Wickland doi:10.1038/nclimate3054 A meta-analysis of soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone suggests that thawing under aerobic conditions, which releases CO2, will strengthen the permafrost carbon feedback more than waterlogged systems, which releases CO2 and CH4. Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately pp954 - 958 A. J. Challinor, A.-K. Koehler, J. Ramirez-Villegas, S. Whitfield and B. Das doi:10.1038/nclimate3061 The process of breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties can take 30 years. Projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize development cycle suggests the need for immediate development to prevent yield losses. Human-induced greening of the northern extratropical land surface pp959 - 963 Jiafu Mao, Aurélien Ribes, Binyan Yan, Xiaoying Shi, Peter E. Thornton, Roland Séférian, Philippe Ciais, Ranga B. Myneni, Hervé Douville, Shilong Piao, Zaichun Zhu, Robert E. Dickinson, Yongjiu Dai, Daniel M. Ricciuto, Mingzhou Jin, Forrest M. Hoffman, Bin Wang, Mengtian Huang and Xu Lian doi:10.1038/nclimate3056 Observed northern extratropical land greening is consistent with anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but not with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability. See also: News and Views by Robert Buitenwerf Articles Top Value of storage technologies for wind and solar energy pp964 - 969 William A. Braff, Joshua M. Mueller and Jessika E. Trancik doi:10.1038/nclimate3045 Energy storage is vital to the widespread rollout of renewable electricity technologies. Modelling shows that energy storage can add value to wind and solar technologies, but cost reduction remains necessary to reach widespread profitability. Tropical Pacific impacts on cooling North American winters pp970 - 974 Michael Sigmond and John C. Fyfe doi:10.1038/nclimate3069 The North America winter cooling trend in the early 2000s can be explained by decadal climate signals. For the northwest, fluctuations in the remote tropical Pacific were responsible, whereas for central North America it was mid-latitude circulation changes. Advertisement Permafrost Focus As permafrost melts, it releases large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane, and also alters surface hydrology. In this focus, Nature Geoscience presents a collection of research and comment pieces that look at the current and potential future effects of melting permafrost. Find out more   Advertisement npj Pollution Control is a new open access journal that is now open for submissions. The journal is dedicated to publishing original and high quality research results in the broad area of environmental science and engineering as it relates to the prevention, control, monitoring and mitigation of environmental pollution. 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