🗳 Axios AM Deep Dive: Midterm cliffhangers

Plus: Trump's big bet | Saturday, October 01, 2022

Open in app View in browser     Axios AM Deep Dive By Mike Allen · Oct 01, 2022 Welcome to our Deep Dive on the Nov. 8 midterm elections (38 days from today!), led by the Axios politics team. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,388 words ... 5 mins.     1 big thing: Nation in the balance Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Fundamentals still matter, even in these crazy times: The party out of power almost always gains congressional seats in a midterm. And presidents with underwater job approval ratings typically suffer sizable congressional losses, Axios' Josh Kraushaar writes. Why it matters: Yes, Democrats' fortunes have improved. But the most likely midterm outcome is still a shift in power to the Republicans — and bigger headaches for President Biden over the next two years. Democrats made significant gains over the summer. They've been boosted by lower gas prices and are benefiting from outrage over the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. Democrats are also getting help from the GOP's nomination of extreme candidates in a number of pivotal Senate and gubernatorial contests. But the underlying data still indicates Republicans are heavily favored to win back control of the House, with solid odds of netting the one seat necessary to take back the Senate majority as well. The Senate map: Despite the streak of discouraging news, Republicans still have a clear path to retaking the Senate majority. They only need to net one seat to win back the upper chamber, and there are plenty of paths to get there even if many of their recruits fizzle out. 👀 Control of the Senate will likely come down to three races: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The party that wins two of those three is poised to hold a narrow majority. The House map: It won't take a red wave for Republicans to win back the House: Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy only needs to net five seats to hold the majority. But margins will matter for McCarthy's ability to govern. If he only wins a narrow majority, hard-right rebels will make his job very difficult. The bigger the wave, the more pragmatic-minded Republicans are likely to get elected from bluer districts. Read the full story.     2. 🧨 Midterm cliffhangers Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios   Here are five of the most hotly contested congressional races that political insiders are watching closely to determine whether Democrats will beat expectations on Nov. 8, or whether a red wave could reemerge just before Election Day, Josh writes. Between the lines: If these seats stay or turn red, Republicans can pop the champagne corks early. But if Democrats hold their ground on friendly turf, it's a sign that any Republican wave has turned into a ripple. 1. Pennsylvania Senate: A John Fetterman victory over Mehmet Oz would singlehandedly open up the Democrats' path to the majority. But if Oz comes from behind to win, it would be a sign that the polls underestimated the depth of Republican enthusiasm and economic malaise — a dynamic that could easily replicate itself elsewhere. 2. Nebraska-02: Rep. Don Bacon is one of the most battle-tested Republicans, regularly winning a critical mass of Democrats in a Biden-friendly suburban Omaha district. But Democrats nominated a more moderate challenger this year — state Sen. Tony Vargas. A Democratic upset here would be a major red flag for GOP prospects. 3. Pennsylvania-08: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.) represents one of the few remaining Democratic-held districts that former President Trump carried in 2020, and he's facing a rematch against the Republican (Jim Bognet) he narrowly defeated that year. 4. Oregon-05: Attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who ousted moderate Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary, is betting her progressive views won't cost her. But Republicans are bullish that they can flip a Biden +9 district with Hispanic mayor Lori Chavez-DeRemer. 5. Virginia-07: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter moved Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger's race into safer "lean Democratic" territory. But Republicans think the compelling biography of Yesli Vega — a Hispanic county supervisor and law enforcement officer — is as significant as her conservative views and ties to Trump. Share this story.     3. Trump's big bet Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios   The midterms will show whether Trump's endorsement power is still strong enough to reshape the Republican Party by sweeping his handpicked candidates into office, Axios' Alayna Treene and Andrew Solender report. Why it matters: If enough Trump candidates win in November, he'll show he still controls the GOP. If they lose, he'll show his main superpower is to blow winnable races. The big picture: Trump has been a player in '22, but not a kingmaker. Most of the primary candidates he endorsed were winners. But a dozen high-profile losses in crucial races added to doubts about his power. 💰 Between the lines: Trump-backed Republican nominees are lagging behind their Democratic rivals in the polls and fundraising. That includes Trump-endorsed Senate candidates — notably JD Vance in Ohio, Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona — as well as gubernatorial nominees Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania and Tudor Dixon in Michigan. Go deeper.     A message from Axios The latest political news in your inbox     Stay in the know for the upcoming midterm elections with our insider's guide to the powerful people — and ideas — shaping politics. Delivered daily from Sunday to Thursday. Subscribe for Free     4. 📊 Axios/Ipsos poll: What Americans fear Respondents could choose up to two answers out of 10 options. Data: Axios/Ipsos Poll. Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios Americans see the economy worsening if Democrats keep control of Congress — and gridlock worsening if Republicans win, Axios' David Nather reports from a new Axios-Ipsos poll. Why it matters: If the economy and inflation are top of voters' minds come November, it could be a rough night for Biden. By the numbers: If Democrats keep control of Congress, more than four in 10 respondents — 43% — said they'd worry about the economy or inflation getting worse. That's largely driven by Republicans (64%). But 38% of independents share that concern. If Republicans gain control, the worries are split: 24% say they're concerned that the economy or inflation could get worse. 23% worry that Biden won't be able to get anything done. 21% are concerned Republicans would spend too much time on divisive social issues. Go deeper.     5. Election denial hot spots Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Georgia, New Hampshire, Texas, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin: Watch these states in November for a preview of 2024 election litigation, Axios' Stef Kight and Alexi McCammond report. Why it matters: Election deniers who win statewide or federal office could try to extend Trumpian tactics into 2024. By the numbers: About 60% of Americans will have an election denier on the ballot in November, per a FiveThirtyEight analysis. 16 Republican nominees for secretary of state — the chief election position in many states — question Biden's victory, The Associated Press found. "If the chief election officer for a state does not believe in elections, we are in a very scary place," Sean Morales-Doyle of the Brennan Center's Voting Rights Program tells Axios. Keep reading.     6. ⚠️ Threat level: Future elections Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   More than 200 election deniers — candidates promoting baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump — will appear on November ballots across the U.S., David reports. Why it matters: Those who win can affect future elections, including the 2024 presidential race — through court challenges, administrative actions, radical interpretation of law or the refusal to certify valid results. Here's how the following offices could matter if they're won by election deniers: Governors: A governor who disputes the 2020 election results can appoint chief election officials in five states (Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas and Delaware), according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. The governor can also refuse to certify election results, as Kari Lake, the Republican nominee in Arizona, says she would have done with that state's results in 2020. Secretaries of state: They matter because they're the chief election officers in 24 states where they're elected by the voters, and in four others where they're appointed by the governor, according to an NCSL tally. Attorneys general: A state attorney general can file lawsuits based on bogus stolen election claims, as Texas' Ken Paxton did in a lawsuit that was rejected by the Supreme Court. Go deeper.     7. 🕶️ Top ballot battles Data: Ballot Initiative Strategy Center. Map: Simran Parwani/Axios The November elections will give voters across the country opportunities to directly weigh in on issues from abortion to democracy to criminal justice reform, Axios' Sophia Cai reports. Why it matters: When Congress is gridlocked, policy decisions shift to state legislatures — and increasingly to ballot measures. What we're watching: Five ballot measures related to reproductive rights are expected to draw voters from across both sides of the aisle to the polls. In Michigan, a ballot initiative that would create a state constitutional right to reproductive freedom received over 750,000 signatures — a state record — and will appear on the November ballot. Voters in four other states — California, Kentucky, Montana and Vermont — will consider ballot measures that would either further protect or restrict abortion access. Go deeper.     A message from Axios The latest political news in your inbox     Stay in the know for the upcoming midterm elections with our insider's guide to the powerful people — and ideas — shaping politics. Delivered daily from Sunday to Thursday. Subscribe for Free   This Deep Dive was edited by David Nather, Margaret Talev and Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath and copy edited by Katie Lewis. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. 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