| | | | | | | Presented By BlackRock | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen · Nov 30, 2022 | | 🐪 Happy Wednesday. It's the last day of November. - Smart Brevity™ count: 1,473 words ... 5½ minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner.
🇨🇳 Breaking: Former Chinese President Jiang Zemin — who led his country out of isolation after the crushing protests in Tiananmen Square, and supported reforms that led to a decade of explosive growth — died at 96. Go deeper. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Change of heart |  Data: Gallup. (Poll was taken twice in 2013 and 2015.) Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals Compared to the decades upon decades it took to dismantle Jim Crow laws or secure women's right to vote, America's about-face on same-sex marriage happened in the blink of an eye, Axios' Margaret Talev and Sam Baker write. The Senate voted 61-36 last evening to codify the rights to same-sex marriage and interracial marriage into federal law. The House is expected to follow quickly. - Twelve Senate Republicans voted for the bill. All 36 no votes came from Republicans.
Why it matters: In an era of polarization and partisan conflict, this is a rare bipartisan vote at the heart of America's culture war. - "This is a great example of politicians following public opinion rather than leading it," Sasha Issenberg, author of "The Engagement: America's Quarter-Century Struggle over Same-Sex Marriage," tells Axios.
📊 Context: Just 27% of Americans supported same-sex marriage in 1996, the year President Clinton signed the Defense of Marriage Act, which denied federal recognition to same-sex marriages. - 26 years later, that's flipped on its head: 71% now tell Gallup that same-sex and opposite-sex marriages should have the same legal recognition.
🧠 Between the lines: Democrats held this vote because of real concern that, as popular as same-sex marriage has become, it could be in jeopardy before the 6-3 Supreme Court. - The legal reasoning behind the court's decision to strike down the right to an abortion does seem to implicate other rights that the court has protected in the same way — including same-sex marriage.
The bottom line: Even a majority of Republicans now say the law should recognize same-sex marriage, according to Gallup. |     | | | | | | 2. 🧮 McCarthy's math problem | | House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy speaks to reporters after a White House meeting yesterday. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy met yesterday with key members of his conference — including several right-wing detractors — as part of an intensifying effort to cobble together the votes he needs to become speaker, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Why it matters: McCarthy is at risk of a humiliating and potentially career-ending defeat with just five weeks until the Jan. 3 speaker election. - Several members of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus are still publicly vowing to deny him crucial votes.
👂 What we're hearing: The Great Compromise might be to ditch McCarthy and accept his No. 2, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.), as replacement. What's happening: McCarthy will need a majority of voting members to elect him speaker. With a House Republican majority of just five or six seats, he will only be able to afford a handful of defections. - Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) told Axios he's a firm "no" on McCarthy after previously leaving wiggle room: "I will be voting for an alternative candidate. I will not be voting for Kevin McCarthy."
- In addition to Good, Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Ralph Norman (R-N.C.) have said they're hard "no." Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) has also voiced firm opposition.
McCarthy told reporters yesterday he won't drop out if he fails on the first vote. He promised a floor fight even if the process goes into multiple ballots: "At the end of the day, we'll get there." 🎙️ Conservative radio powerhouse Mark Levin is lighting up House Republicans — by name — for opposing McCarthy. On his show yesterday, he called them "boneheads" and "saboteurs." | | | | | | | | 3. How the Oath Keepers radicalize people |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | Testimony at the Oath Keepers trial in D.C. has shown how people were drawn to the extremist group, which played a big role in the Jan. 6 attack, Axios' Sophia Cai reports. - A lack of stability, a desire for belonging and faith in misinformation were recurring themes as members of the Oath Keepers described their descent into radicalization.
The group's founder, Stewart Rhodes, and an associate were found guilty yesterday of seditious conspiracy. Three other associates were found not guilty of seditious conspiracy. - Additional defendants affiliated with the Oath Keepers and another far-right group, the Proud Boys, face trials next month.
Jason Dolan, 46, a former Oath Keeper who was a government witness, told the jury he joined the group in 2020 after becoming convinced that the presidential election was stolen. - He was spending hours each evening in his garage — going through a six-pack or a half bottle of vodka, and scrolling through news articles on his phone, after quitting his job following a bad hip surgery.
- The Florida Oath Keepers group, he said, gave him a sense of community and camaraderie with other military veterans and former law enforcement who "felt the same way I did."
The bottom line: 912 people have been charged with crimes related to the attack, and 492 have been convicted, according to an AP tally. | | | | | | | | A message from BlackRock | | Invested in the future of retirees | | |  | | | | All across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. So, we are hard at work, helping them achieve financial freedom. At BlackRock, we are proud to manage the retirement plan assets of over 35 million Americans. Learn more. | | | | | | 4. 🌋 1,000 words | | Spectators watch Mauna Loa yesterday. Photo/Marco Garcia/AP This week's first eruption in 38 years of Mauna Loa — the world's largest active volcano — is allowing tourists near Hilo, on Hawaii's Big Island, to watch lava flow down the mountain at about 1 mph. Satellite image: ©2022 Maxar Technologies via AP In this nighttime satellite image, lava flows from the Mauna Loa volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii on Monday. | | | | | | | | 5. 🔋 Charted: Nibbling at Tesla |  Data: S&P Global. Chart: Axios Visuals Tesla controls 65% of the U.S. electric vehicle market — a steady drop from 71% last year, and 79% in 2020, according to data released yesterday by S&P Global Mobility. - Why it matters: Tesla is defending itself against an onslaught of new competition with basically the same lineup it's had for the past couple of years, Axios transportation correspondent Joann Muller tells me.
What's happening: Rivals are coming out with a broad array of EVs in every segment of the market. But Tesla's biggest sellers remain the Model 3 and Model Y. It's hard to fight off advancing armies with just two guns. - S&P Global Mobility predicts the number of battery-electric nameplates will grow from 48 at present to 159 by the end of 2025, at a pace faster than Tesla will be able to add factories.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed (again) during a recent earnings call that the company is working on a vehicle priced lower than the Model 3, though market launch timing is unclear. - Tesla's model range is expected to grow to include Cybertruck in 2023 and eventually a Roadster. But the Tesla model lineup in 2025 will be largely the same models it offers today.
🔮 What's next: For all these reasons, S&P Global Mobility projects Tesla's U.S. EV market share could drop below 20% by 2025. 🚗 Go deeper, with another visual: Nissan — whose entry-level Leaf dominated the U.S. EV landscape in the early 2010s before Tesla took a commanding lead — is aiming to claw back market share with a bevy of new, relatively affordable models, Joann writes. | | | | | | | | 6. 🗳️ '24 watch: Nikki Haley might challenge Trump | | Nikki Haley speaks at Clemson University in South Carolina yesterday. Photo: Meg Kinnard/AP Nikki Haley — UN ambassador under former President Trump, and former South Carolina governor — signaled she's open to challenging him in 2024, after previously saying she wouldn't. - "We are taking the holidays to kind of look at what the situation is," she said at a Turning Point USA event at Clemson University. "If we decide to get into it, we'll put 1,000% in, and we'll finish it."
Top Trump ally Taylor Budowich tweeted back: "It is unfortunate to see politicians who Pres. Trump made relevant use '24 as life support for their political career." | | | | | | | | 7. New carbon-credit platform | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios The emissions offset sector got a new player yesterday in Rubicon Carbon — flush with $300 million in private equity cash from TPG, and led by two Bank of America veterans, Axios' Javier E. David reports. - The chair of the board is Anne Finucane, BofA's former vice chair, who has long experience with socially responsible investing.
- The CEO is Tom Montag, who retired last year as the bank's COO.
Why it matters: As the private sector moves to tackle climate change, major companies are looking to voluntary credits to help offset their carbon footprints. - Finucane has been an advocate for sustainable finance through her career, including working with the UN and World Bank.
Share this story ... Go deeper with Axios Pro: Climate Deals' Michael Flaherty and Alan Neuhauser. | | | | | | | | 8. 🎭 1 stage thing: Long "Phantom" goodbye | | Ben Crawford during a performance of "The Phantom of the Opera" on Broadway. Photo: Matthew Murphy/The Publicity Office via AP The "Phantom of the Opera" — Broadway's longest-running show — got a spike in ticket sales after announcing the end was nigh. So the show announced the run will extend an extra eight weeks, to April 16. - The closing of "Phantom" — a fixture on Broadway since 1988 — will mean the longest-running-show crown will go to "Chicago," which opened in 1996. "The Lion King," playing since 1997, is next.
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