| | | | | | | Presented By Walmart | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen · Dec 27, 2022 | | 🧤 Hello, Tuesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,443 words ... 5½ minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner. 🇨🇭 Axios House is packing for Davos, Jan. 16-20. Want to attend our in-person events? Request an invite. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Crypto surprise |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | Remember this when reading all the obituaries for blockchain and cryptocurrencies: They've been written before. - There have been many crypto booms and busts.
- But in each bust, the bottom is a little higher than the time before.
Why it matters: Believers count on that slow build to eventually bring crypto into the mainstream, writes Brady Dale, co-author of Axios Crypto. State of play: There are people all over the world committed to cryptocurrency's endurance — with hundreds of billions of dollars invested. - The FTX collapse is only the latest headline-grabbing failure to rattle the crypto market this year. May's collapse of the Terra stablecoin really kicked off the present downturn.
- Commentators are declaring the industry was a $2 trillion losing bet, making its last stand, etc.
Flashback: There were bitcoin booms in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021. - Obituaries similar to today's were written after every previous cycle.
- They were all premature.
🧠 What's really happening: Today, more machine power is mining bitcoin and securing the network than during any other boom time in crypto history. - Machine power grew all through 2022, committing more resources to bitcoin despite the market crash. That's persisted even amid China kicking miners out, environmental controversies and supply chain issues everywhere.
- If the industry were dying, these miners would be winding down. They aren't.
🧮 By the numbers: Global demand for bitcoin right now is roughly equal to a level that, just a few years ago, was only attained amid irrational exuberance. - Bitcoin's price is hovering just under $17,000. But even after losing two-thirds of its value earlier this year, it was still above its 2017 high.
The bottom line: Bitcoin's price is a measure of how much the world wants it. After each boom and bust, there are more people who want crypto than there were in the last bust. - This keeps happening — and appears to be happening again.
Get Axios Crypto ... Share this story. |     | | | | | | 2. 🗳️ New data: GOP's independent gap |  Data: AP VoteCast, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press. (The remaining voters chose "another candidate.") Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios Interviews with midterm voters show Republicans continually underperform Democrats with one of the ripest targets in politics — independents who say they don't lean toward either party. - Why it matters: The interviews, by AP VoteCast (methodology), show a critical mass of moderates aren't thrilled with Democrats — but are resistant to a MAGA-fied GOP, Axios' Josh Kraushaar says.
The data show Republicans have been stuck in the high 30s among independents in each of the past three elections. - These voters made up 12% of the electorate in 2018, 5% in 2020 and 8% in 2022.
- 20% of independents didn't vote for either party in 2022 (the missing votes in the chart above).
🔎 Between the lines: In November, independents didn't entirely blame Biden for the bad economy, even though they rated it poorly, AP reports. - Few independents said the economy is doing well — and about two-thirds disapproved of Biden's handling of it.
- But independents were slightly more likely to say inflation is the result of factors outside Biden's control.
🥊 Reality check: That nuance was often missing from GOP messaging. | | | | | | | | 3. 📱 Biden officials push for forced TikTok sale |  | | | Photo illustration by Pablo Delcan for The New York Times. Photos: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Mark Schiefelbein/Getty Images | | | | Some Biden administration officials want to force a sale of the Chinese-owned TikTok's U.S. operations "to ensure Beijing can't harness the app for espionage," The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription): - The proposal arose at the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS). Pentagon and Justice Department representatives on the interagency panel are among those supporting a forced sale.
💡 Backstory: A New York Times Magazine cover story, calling TikTok "the world's biggest virality machine," says the company "is reported to be making progress on a deal with the Biden administration that would allow the app to retain its Chinese ownership, but keep its American user data on servers in the United States." - "Despite decades of trying," Alex W. Palmer adds, "no Chinese company has ever conquered American society like TikTok. It's difficult to imagine a Russian or Iranian company — or, increasingly, even another Chinese company — pulling off a similar feat."
Read the story (subscription). | | | | | | | | A message from Walmart | | Walmart is investing $1 billion in career training and development | | |  | | | | At Walmart, a first promotion is often just the first of many — 75% of management started as hourly associates. That's just one reason why Walmart was named one of LinkedIn's Top Companies to Grow a Career in 2022. Learn how Walmart's mentorship and training help associates advance in their careers. | | | | | | 4. Congressman-elect admits résumé fraud | | George Santos campaigns outside a Stop & Shop in Glen Cove, N.Y., on Nov. 5. Photo: Mary Altaffer/AP Rep.-elect George Santos (R-N.Y.) admitted in two interviews yesterday to "embellishing" parts of his résumé — but said he intends to be sworn in at the start of the new Congress. Zoom in: Santos told the N.Y. Post he had "never worked directly" for Goldman Sachs or Citigroup — and his previous claims of employment there represented a "poor choice of words." - He also said he didn't graduate from college, as he previously claimed.
Addressing accusations that he lied about having Jewish ancestry, Santos said: - "I never claimed to be Jewish. I am Catholic. Because I learned my maternal family had a Jewish background I said I was 'Jew-ish.'"
There's more. | | | | | | | | 5. 🧊 Storm brings calamity, chaos | | An ambulance is left stranded on Main Street in Amherst, N.Y., outside Buffalo. Photo: Sydney Gros-McDermid/Reuters One of the worst blizzards in Buffalo's history has claimed the lives of at least 28 people in western New York, officials say. - What has made this event so dangerous is the duration of extremely strong winds, frigid temperatures and heavy snow, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes.
The city has never endured blizzard conditions for such a long period of time, according to weather records dating back to 1950. It's akin to a winter hurricane standing still. Southwest baggage at LAX yesterday. Photo: Eugene Garcia/AP Southwest Airlines has already canceled 62% of its flights scheduled to take off today, according to FlightAware. - Southwest's tally (2,511) makes up the vast majority of today's 2,858 U.S. flight cancellations.
Why it matters: The company's business model rejects central hubs for planes hopping across the country, leaving it uniquely vulnerable to nationwide weather events. - "That approach can make it hard to isolate problems to one part of the country and can make it difficult to catch back up when things start to go wrong, causing disruptions to ripple," The Wall Street Journal reports.
🔮 What's next: The Transportation Department tweeted that it'll look into Southwest's "unacceptable rate of cancellations and delays & reports of lack of prompt customer service." | | | | | | | | 6. 🇮🇱 Scoop: U.S. Jewish leaders warn Israel over new government | | Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu in the Knesset in Jerusalem on Dec. 13. Photo: Maya Alleruzzo/AP Several U.S. Jewish leaders had a warning during a tense, blunt meeting with officials at the Israeli embassy in Washington earlier this month: Why it matters: The incoming government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, is expected to be Israel's most right-wing ever — with policies that are hostile to reform and conservative Jews, and could harm LGBTQ rights. 👂 What we're hearing: Participants in the Dec. 7 meeting told Axios that several of the U.S. leaders said racist, ultra-orthodox policies could push younger Jews to distance themselves further from Israel. - Some participants warned of the possibility of demonstrations by U.S. Jews in front of the Israeli Embassy in Washington.
The meeting included several mainstream U.S. Jewish organizations that are the backbone of the pro-Israel community in the U.S. They're all in regular touch with the embassy. The other side: The Israeli officials who attended the meeting were taken aback. They urged the U.S. leaders to take a wait-and-see approach — and stressed they'll communicate the criticism to the new government. 👀 What to watch: The U.S. leaders said during the meeting that they'd like to meet Netanyahu after he takes office. | | | | | | | | 7. 🇩🇪 First look: Avoiding a new Cold War |  | | | Cover illustration: Chris Malbon for Foreign Affairs | | | | In the Jan./Feb. issue of Foreign Affairs, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz writes that the way to avoid a new Cold War is to resist the temptation — heightened with Russia's invasion of Ukraine — "to once again divide the world into blocs": This means making every effort to build new partnerships, pragmatically and without ideological blinders. In today's densely interconnected world, the goal of advancing peace, prosperity, and human freedom calls for a different mindset and different tools. Scholz writes that the world is facing a Zeitenwende — an epochal tectonic shift: Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine has put an end to an era. New powers have emerged or reemerged, including an economically strong and politically assertive China. In this new multipolar world, different countries and models of government are competing for power and influence. Explore the issue. | | | | | | | | 8. 📷 Parting shot | | Photo: Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images In Austria, Admont Abbey — which claims the world's largest monastery library (70,000 books) — has become an Instagram and selfie magnet, AFP reports. - The Baroque interiors look Photoshopped. They're real.
Watch a video ... More pics. | | | | | | | | A message from Walmart | | Walmart named one of LinkedIn's Top 20 Companies to Grow a Career | | |  | | | | Patrick Joseph began his Walmart career as a pharmacy intern. Today, he oversees 11 pharmacies and eight vision centers — and his story is just one of many. See how Walmart's focus on mentorship and advancement helps create more stories like Patrick's. | | | | ❄️ Thanks for sharing your holiday week with us. Please invite your friends to sign up. |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it. | | | |
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