| | | | | | | Presented By Enbridge | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen · Jan 25, 2023 | | 🐪 Hello, Wednesday! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,496 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by Kate Nocera. | | | | | | 1 big thing: GOP savors Senate map |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo, Shoshana Gordon/Axios | | | | After last year's midterm fail, Republicans are licking their chops at an enviable outlook for snatching the Senate majority in '24. - Why it matters: The four Senate tossup races are in red (West Virginia, Ohio, Montana) or swing (Arizona) states — part of a strongly GOP-favorable '24 Senate map.
"Democrats on Defense," The Cook Political Report headlined its opening Senate race ratings (subscription). - 23 Ds are up for reelection — and just 11 Rs.
"Democrats are defending all 3 seats they hold in states that Donald Trump carried for president in 2020 — Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia," notes Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the UVA Center for Politics. 💡 Here's a Senate cheat sheet from Axios' Josh Kraushaar: 1. West Virginia: This is the GOP's best pickup opportunity, since it's the second-most Trump-friendly state on the map. - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is the only Democrat who can win in this red state — but he's no guarantee to run for a third term.
- Popular Gov. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.), a former Democrat, is strongly considering a run. He'd be the toughest GOP opponent Manchin faced in his long political career.
2. Ohio: Ohio, a one-time battleground, is fast becoming Republican turf, with the GOP scoring a clean sweep in last year's midterms. But Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) has an enviable brand as a labor-friendly Democrat who has won over blue-collar voters that drifted to Trump. - He has already announced he's all-in for a tough campaign.
- Republicans expect a crowded primary to challenge him.
3. Montana: The GOP's ability to pick up the seat held by Sen. Jon Tester (D) comes down to candidate recruitment — and whether the popular red-state senator runs for re-election. - Republicans are worried that two prospective challengers have serious political baggage: Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) lost to Tester in 2018, and hails from the hard-right wing of the House GOP caucus. Rep. Ryan Zinke resigned as Interior Secretary amid ethics investigations.
4. Arizona: Democrats fear that a potential three-way race, with Democratic voters split between Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), could hand the seat to Republicans. - Most of the rumored GOP candidates hail from the MAGA wing of the party — including losing 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake.
Go deeper: Cook Senate ratings ... Crystal Ball ratings. |     | | | | | | 2. 🕊️ Pope: Homosexuality not a crime | | Pope Francis speaks during an interview with AP at the Vatican yesterday. Photo: Domenico Stinellis/AP Pope Francis called laws that criminalize homosexuality "unjust," saying God loves all his children just as they are. He called on Catholic bishops who support the laws to welcome LGBTQ people into the church. - "Being homosexual is not a crime," he said during an interview with AP's Nicole Winfield at the Vatican hotel where he lives.
- "It's not a crime. Yes, but it's a sin. Fine, but first let's distinguish between a sin and a crime ... It's also a sin to lack charity with one another."
Why it matters: 67 countries or jurisdictions worldwide criminalize consensual same-sex sexual activity, 11 of which can or do impose the death penalty, according to The Human Dignity Trust. - In the U.S., more than a dozen states still have anti-sodomy laws on the books, despite a 2003 Supreme Court ruling declaring them unconstitutional.
The pope said the Catholic Church should work to put an end to such laws: "It must do this. It must do this." - "We are all children of God, and God loves us as we are and for the strength that each of us fights for our dignity," he added.
Francis said bishops need to "have a process of conversion" and should apply "tenderness, please, as God has for each one of us." | | | | | | | | 3. 🏛️ House GOP targets D.C. crime |  | | | Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios | | | | House Republicans are ushering in a new era of intervention in D.C. affairs by targeting the city's handling of crime, reports Cuneyt Dil of Axios D.C. - Wielding authority Congress has over the capital city, Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.) is preparing a bill that would block the D.C. Council's attempts to lessen penalties for some violent crimes.
Why it matters: House Republicans hope to drum up attention for big-city crime with headlines and hearings, using the capital city and Mayor Muriel Bowser as Exhibit A. 🔭 Zoom out: The new GOP interest in D.C. coincides with back-to-back years of more than 200 murders and five years of increasing carjackings. - The crime issue has led Republican lawmakers to hammer D.C. during Fox News segments about city crime.
🔬 Zoom in: Clyde's bill combats the District's recent criminal code reform — passed unanimously by the D.C. Council and unsuccessfully vetoed by Bowser this month. - The bill is unlikely to succeed — it would need to pass the Democratic Senate and gain President Biden's signature.
- But it brings more attention to criticism, locally and in national conservative media, of the council's reforms, which drop maximum sentences for carjacking and gun possession.
Keep reading ... Sign up for Axios D.C. ... Get Axios Local, now in 26 cities. | | | | | | | | A message from Enbridge | | Carbon capture will be key to achieving net zero | | |  | | | | According to the IEA, reaching net zero will be virtually impossible without CCUS. That's why Enbridge is partnering with industry, customers and Indigenous groups to advance the Wabamun Hub — potentially one of the world's largest integrated carbon capture, transportation and storage projects. | | | | | | 4. 😔 Tax refunds shrink |  | | | Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios | | | | Many Americans will be getting a smaller tax refund this year, without the padding of a few crucial pandemic-era tax breaks, Emily Peck writes in Axios Markets. - Why it matters: Many people depend on their refunds to make ends meet, pay down debt or fund extras like vacations. Checks are shrinking at a time when rising prices are already making it harder to pay the bills.
🧠 What's happening: The enhanced child tax credit is gone. Parents who received $3,600 per child during the flush times will now get $2,000. - The Child and Dependent Care Credit, a break that helps working parents pay for childcare, returns to a maximum of $2,100 instead of $8,000.
- During COVID, taxpayers could take a $600 deduction for charitable donations even if they just took a standard deduction. Now, only those who itemize can deduct charitable payments.
- The Earned Income Tax Credit is lower than last year for taxpayers with no children.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 5. 💰 Kevin McCarthy's math problem |  Data: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Chart: Axios Visuals Negotiations to raise the debt ceiling are putting Republicans in a vise: - They're torn among competing conservative pressures, the inevitable need to work with Democrats and the realities of basic budgetary math, Axios' Caitlin Owens writes.
Why it matters: House Republicans have said they'll refuse to raise the debt ceiling unless it's accompanied by reductions in federal spending. But the party is deeply divided on what to cut. 🥊 Reality check: If you take off the table cuts to Medicare, Social Security, veterans and defense spending, and if you're also not going to raise taxes to bring in more revenue, you'd need to cut about 85% of the rest of the budget in order to make it balance, according to a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. | | | | | | | | 6. 📈 Where tech is still hiring |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | The demand for cyber workers kept steady in recent months as the broader tech industry suffered from a wave of cost-cutting layoffs, writes Sam Sabin, author of Axios Codebook - Why it matters: Employers have been struggling for years to fill open cybersecurity roles.
🧮 By the numbers: In 2022, there were 68 cybersecurity workers for every 100 open roles, according to new data from the National Initiative for Cybersecurity Education at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, trade group CompTIA and data firm Lightcast. The two most in-demand roles are cybersecurity engineers and cybersecurity analysts. | | | | | | | | 7. 🔋Tesla plans $3.6 billion Nevada plant | | Tesla Semi is unveiled in Hawthorne, Calif., in 2017. Photo: Alexandria Sage/Reuters Tesla says it's investing $3.6 billion to build the new electric Tesla Semi truck by adding two plants to its existing Nevada Gigafactory complex outside Reno, Axios' Ben Geman and Nathan Bomey report. - Why it matters: The faster the U.S. can build manufacturing capacity, the faster EVs will become viable options for consumers, businesses and government buyers.
One plant is to build the semi. The other is a battery cell factory. - The new factory will "create more than 3,000 good-paying jobs in Nevada helping America lead in clean energy manufacturing," Mitch Landrieu, the White House Senior infrastructure coordinator, said.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 8. 🎞️ Streamers lose Oscar momentum |  Data: Deadline, Axios research. (Traditional studios included are Disney, Warner Bros, A24, Focus Features, Fox Searchlight and Universal.) Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals For the first time in three years, Netflix didn't receive the most Oscar nominations of any movie studio, Axios Media Trends author Sara Fischer writes. - Why it matters: Tech firms have invested billions of dollars on movies in an effort to bolster their streaming products. But traditional studios are proving their might as they boost their own streaming services and win back momentum at the box office.
A24's science comedy "Everything Everywhere All at Once" picked up the most Oscar nominations (11) for an individual film this year, followed by Netflix's war drama "All Quiet on the Western Front" (9) and Searchlight's 'The Banshees of Inisherin," (9), per Deadline. - Paramount's 'Top Gun: Maverick," Warner Bros.' "Elvis," Disney's "Avatar: The Way of Water," and Focus Features' and Universal Pictures' "Tár" also received nominations for Best Picture.
🔮 What to watch: The Oscars are March 12, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. | | | | | | | | A message from Enbridge | | Hydrogen, fuel of tomorrow — today | | |  | | | | Enbridge is blending green hydrogen into natural gas to lower the carbon content and curb greenhouse gas emissions. Why it's important: The company was the first in North America to pilot hydrogen blending — just one way it's greening the grid. Learn more about the technology. | | | | 🕶️ Thanks for starting your day with us. Please invite your friends to sign up. |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it. | | | |
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