In the least surprising news of the young year of 2023, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego announced on Monday that he will challenge the newly independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.
Ms Sinema has become public enemy number one for Democrats, since she delivered a thumbs down during a vote to overrule the Senate parliamentarian to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
Her support for the filibuster and her tight-lipped opposition on Build Back Better frustrated President Joe Biden and other Democrats to no end (her taciturn nature also contrasts starkly with that of the verbose Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia). At the same time, Ms Sinema, the former Green Party activist who rose through the ranks in Arizona's legislature and the House of Representatives until she became the first Democrat to win a Senate race in the state in 2018, has been considered a formidable opponent.
When the seat opened up in 2017, I remember Republicans in Arizona worrying that she would be a juggernaut, which she was. In addition, she can claim she has a legitimate record of accomplishments such as the bipartisan infrastructure law, the first significant piece of gun legislation in almost three decades, to codifying same-sex marriage.
While she has not announced whether she will seek re-election since going independent, expect her to lean heavily on that record of a bipartisan dealmaker in the vein of the late John McCain. Similarly, many Democratic Senators seemed less than enthused when I spoke with them last month when asked about supporting a challenger.
At the same time, while she has become an effective dealmaker, her stock has plunged in Arizona. A Morning Consult poll found that her approval rating improved little after her defection, though her support did improve with Republicans and independents. Her low numbers make her one of the most unpopular senators.
In addition, she is likely to face a lack of grassroots small contributors, given she angered many of them as she obstructed the Biden agenda. While she hasn't announced whether she will seek re-election, she faces numerous hurdles if she wants another term.
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Keep a civil tongue.