🏋️ Fitness rebound

Plus: Population reversal | Tuesday, January 17, 2023

Open in app View in browser   Presented By SiriusXM   Axios Closer By Hope King and Nathan Bomey · Jan 17, 2023 Tuesday ✅. Today's newsletter is 690 words, a 2½-minute read. 🔔 The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%. Biggest gainer? Tesla (+7.4%), after Goldman analysts published a note exploring the potential upside of last week's price-cut decision. Biggest decliner? Emerson Electric (-6.8%), the technology and engineering company, disclosed a nearly $7 billion offer to buy National Instruments.     1 big thing: Fitness industry getting fit Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios   The fitness studio and gym industry, bolstered by New Year's resolutions and diminishing effects from the pandemic, is firmly back on its feet, Nathan writes. Why it matters: In the early going of the pandemic, about 1 in 4 health and fitness facilities permanently closed due to stay-at-home orders and people exercising at home, according to the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association. State of play: "There's a surge in getting back to some sort of in-real-life fitness," Orangetheory Fitness CEO Dave Long tells Axios. Between the lines: Orangetheory, which offers high-intensity interval training, hasn't felt the sting of remote work in terms of reduced foot traffic from offices largely because it's rooted in suburban areas, Long says. The chain plans to add more than 100 new studios to its 1,500+ locations in 2023, Long says. About two-thirds to three-quarters of that growth is happening in the United States. Yes, but: Inflation and the prospect of a recession could drive consumers toward cheaper fitness options, such as big-box fitness chain Planet Fitness or more at-home workouts. Specialty fitness chain Soul Cycle recently closed about a fourth of its 80-some locations. Like Orangetheory, it has historically targeted more affluent customers. The bottom line: The darkest days are over for the fitness and health industry — even if a recession hits. Go deeper.     2. Charted: China's population Data: World Bank and Beijing's National Bureau of Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals China's population is now moving in reverse. The country's first population decline since 1961, about two decades before the start of its economic boom, will be a hard trend to reverse, Hope writes. What they're saying: Policy interventions should be able to slow down or increase the population — in theory, says Emma Zang, assistant professor of sociology at Yale University. But practically speaking, they haven't. And the effects are minimal to pretty much nonexistent, Zang tells Hope. What to watch: Whether China pulls on the lever of immigration to boost its population, Zang adds.     3. What's happening 🌎 The Fed has directed big banks to disclose how they are preparing for climate change risks. (CNBC) 🐖 Jack in the Box has promised to give pregnant pigs in its supply chain more space after pressure from an investor. (Bloomberg)     A message from SiriusXM Stream SiriusXM now and get 3 months for free     Stream more than 425 channels on your devices for free on the SXM App, including expertly curated ad-free music, live sports, personalized stations and more. Next steps: Sign up now to get 3 months free. Cancel anytime. Learn more about the offer and start streaming. See offer details.     4. Where have the deals gone Data: S&P Global Market Intelligence; Chart: Axios Visuals Goldman Sachs shares plunged over 7.7% at one point intraday Tuesday, as the firm reported a 66% drop in net earnings from the same quarter last year, Axios' Pete Gannon writes. The big picture: Goldman is experiencing a host of unique issues that set it apart from some of its peers — namely a botched consumer banking effort and runaway costs. But there's one issue that plagued all of the major banks last quarter — the collapse of the dealmaking business. Zoom in: For banks, advising on corporate mergers and acquisitions is, usually, big business. So what happens when nobody is doing deals? Banks aren't collecting fees from advising on them, and they're not issuing new equity and debt to fund them. By the numbers: Investment banking fees for Goldman swooned 48% last quarter. Morgan Stanley, which also reported today, saw its own IB revenue plunge by 49% in Q4. The bottom line: Back in Q4 of 2021, conditions were ripe for dealmaking, leading to record earnings across Wall Street that quarter. Today, a rising rate environment has discouraged dealmaking, causing would-be buyers and sellers to sit on their hands.   Share Axios and earn rewards If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. Be a good friend and share   5. Same story, different Ray The 2024 Chevrolet Corvette E-Ray 3LZ convertible. Photo: General Motors   First came the Stingray — now comes the E-Ray, Nathan writes. General Motors on Tuesday revealed the 2024 Corvette E-Ray, calling it "the first-ever electrified Corvette with all-wheel-drive." It pairs a 6.2-liter V8 gas engine with a 1.9-kWh battery pack. Zoom in: Sporting 655 horsepower between the gas engine and electric motor, the E-Ray hybrid is the fastest-ever 'Vette with a 0-to-60 time of 2.5 seconds, GM says. It has more than double the horsepower of the iconic 1963 Stingray. What's next: An all-electric Corvette. GM has confirmed one is coming, but we haven't seen it yet.     6. What they're saying "Nelson Peltz does not understand Disney's businesses and lacks the skills and experience to assist the board in delivering shareholder value in a rapidly shifting media ecosystem." — Disney in an investor presentation today on why the activist investor shouldn't get a seat on its board.     A message from SiriusXM Get free access to music, sports, news and more     Subscribe to SiriusXM Streaming and get access to 3 months of free: Expertly curated ad-free music. Pandora artist stations. Live sports. Celebrity hosts, comedians and newscasters. Howard Stern and more. More info: Listen on your phone, at home and more with the SXM App. See offer details.   Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Join the thousands of professionals using Axios Pro to keep up with the companies, deals and trends changing their industries.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. 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