Look back through history and start whenever you choose. You'll find the rolling returns for different asset classes are remarkably consistent. And equities win in a landslide. Since 1926, the stock market has generated a positive return in 71 out of 96 years. Historically, the odds of making money in the U.S. stock market are 50-50 in one-day periods, 68% in one-year periods, 88% in 10-year periods and 100% in 20-year periods. (That's something to remember when stock prices start wilting like last week's roses, as they did in 2022.) Stocks are not simply red or green electronic blips - or sheets of paper with corporate names on them. A share of stock is a fractional interest in a business. When a company issues stock, each purchaser has the right to share in the fortunes of the business. The gangbuster returns from equities surprise some folks, especially those listening to the permabears. For instance, a reader recently forwarded me this excerpt... Stocks hit a high in 1929, after which investors waited 27 years (inflation adjusted) for a new high. Measured from the bottom, in 1932, prices rose for 34 years to reach the next top, in 1966. Then, it was down again, with investors in a losing trade for the next 29 years. Finally, in 1995, the Dow traded once again (inflation adjusted) at levels last seen in 1966. Sounds scary. However, it's highly misleading. Why? Because by looking at the level of the index only - and omitting dividends - it grossly distorts actual returns. Even if investors bought at the very top before the 1929 crash, it took just 4.5 years for investors reinvesting dividends to be whole again. No one can tell you what stocks will return in the future, of course. |
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Keep a civil tongue.