More of the same for stocks... An unpopular bullish picture... What we would do on the Titanic... Greg Diamond on interest-rate 'shock' fading... Bank earnings, inflation data, and more on tap later this week...
 The drift continues...
After a brief spike in volatility last week around a pair of jobs reports, today was another ho-hum summer day for stocks... The major U.S. indexes mostly drifted a bit higher, again... As I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote last week in our "midyear checkup," a gradual rise in stock prices has been the theme of the first half of the year... and really since October 2022. That's despite the concerns for recession ahead, inflation that's still too high, and anything else. Take a look at the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index over the past 12 months with lines for simple technical long-term (200-day) and short-term (50-day) moving averages overlaid. Both are trending up, and the index is up 14% over the time frame... 
This is a bullish picture... which I sense may be an unpopular opinion among readers or subscribers right now... Why? Let me tell you... How dare you... Take what one YouTube commenter recently wrote about the latest episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, in which Dan Ferris and I took a brief break from our usual fare and talked about what we were bullish about today. (I said U.S. stocks in the short and medium terms and 5% annual interest on cash.) The commenter wrote about us... If Jim Kramer had a baby with AOC, these two would be the result! Buy, buy, buy. No matter how far the ship has sunk these guys would be happily selling the deck chairs on the Titanic as their feet were covered in cold ocean water. The foundations of the world financial system are crumbling, the only thing now that is not certain is the exact time the world currencies have a major reset but it does appear this year will not have a happy ending. This ship is sinking. Now, I actually find the hypothesis about the crumbling foundation of the global financial system worth thinking about... But the stuff about Dan and me being a mash-up of CNBC host Jim Cramer and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and how we'd behave on the Titanic... that's a little much. (I would try to fashion a life-saving boat from the deck chairs, for starters, and would probably fail.) More relevant, though, this take also reveals someone who hasn't listened to any of our other episodes... and clearly doesn't know Dan or me. And if you listen to the Investor Hour and read Digests from Dan and me, you know we typically talk about all the risks and nonsense in the economy and markets today. This listener's revulsion about any hint of optimism suggests that popular opinion remains extremely negative. Despite those concerns, stock prices have been going higher, which brings up an important point... Mr. Market doesn't necessarily care what we think... After several "bear market rallies" in 2022, stocks took another leg lower in the fall... And you could say it bottomed when investors began to believe that inflation finally wasn't going to accelerate anymore. Since October, the pace of inflation has ground slowly sideways or lower – and the opposite has been true for stocks. We've been seeing more and more indicators suggesting a path higher for stocks, rather than lower, as time has gone on over the past 10 months. Market breadth is a little above average, but not extremely bullish. Yes, popular tech shares have soared higher once again, but there's more to this rally than a handful of names. Inflation may still be well above the Federal Reserve's supposed 2% goal, interest rates throughout the economy may still go higher, and bankruptcies may pile up... But for now, we can just tell you what we see in the present. The market's "fear gauge" – the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures implied volatility for the S&P 500 – is around 15, near its lowest level since before the pandemic began. (It had been way above that level for much of the past three years.) Importantly, history tells us that when "fear" hits new lows, spikes inevitably follow. But right now, based on the stock market's behavior, the shock of last year's shift to a higher-rate era seems to have faded. Prices are churning higher even with the Fed signaling more rate hikes possibly ahead. Our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond has an idea about why that is... As he wrote in his Weekly Market Outlook today... Yes, sharply rising interest rates, like we saw in 2022, hurt the market. But even though rates are higher than they were in, say, 2021, we aren't experiencing the same shock of rapidly rising interest rates. And that means there isn't as much shock in the stock market itself. In other words, the stock market is repricing in a higher interest-rate environment. But the fear around rising interest rates has subsided. Now, this isn't to say there aren't other fears worth considering... There always are. A credit crisis could shake the economy to its debt-ridden core (though that also would present great buying opportunities in distressed corporate bonds, like our Stansberry's Credit Opportunities editor Mike DiBiase has been telling you about lately). Maybe the biggest risk to think about today is earnings... In particular, as companies begin to report their quarterly financials again this week, watch out for any sign of a widespread slowdown. Should the bullish narrative around earnings change, it would be significant. Because as we wrote last week... So far this year, while inflation has come down from its 2022 peak and the cost of borrowing money has gotten more expensive... the earnings picture for S&P 500 companies, at least, has been better than expected on balance. ... But it doesn't mean things won't eventually get worse, either. Second-quarter earnings season is just getting started, and Wall Street expectations are for an earnings decline of 6.8% for the S&P 500. If that occurs, it would be the biggest earnings decline since the second quarter of 2020 when the world shut down. The flip side of that is that if these companies "beat" these low estimates, shares would probably go even higher. We'll get some resolution on the earnings picture soon enough... As I mentioned, earnings season is here again... You'll start to see more reports this week and over the next month from big-name businesses reporting their mandatory quarterly financials. Most notably, banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) report on Friday. That means we'll get a look at the financial sector and hear from bank CEOs like Jamie "The Hurricane" Dimon about what they think about the economy, which could make for some headlines one way or another. This week has a little bit of everything... Stansberry NewsWire editor Kevin Sanford, as he does each Monday, shared an outlook for the week ahead in our free news service. In addition to earnings, we'll see more inflation data... The consumer price index ("CPI") report for June will be published Wednesday, followed by the producer price index ("PPI"), a measure of wholesale prices, on Thursday. Neither of these is the inflation metric that folks at the Federal Reserve say they follow the most. Still, these numbers nonetheless give a read on the direction of inflation in the U.S. (which will always be up... it's just a matter of how much). Speaking of the central bank, nine (nine!) Fed members are also making public speaking appearances this week. Joy to the world. We'll keep you posted on anything important from any of them. | | | | We're Living on Borrowed Time "We're living on borrowed money. We're living on borrowed time," says Greg Mannarino, founder of traderschoice.net and financial strategist. He paints a bleak picture of the American economy... and why the Federal Reserve needs inflation to survive...  Click here to watch this video right now. For more free video content, subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel... and don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter. | | | | |
| Recommended Links: | |  A Massive Wave of Bankruptcies Is Coming (See This by Tomorrow) While the stock market hums along, a much bigger (and more important) market is flashing a huge warning today – one that will definitely affect stocks... housing... and the entire economy. Ignoring this signal would be a big mistake. But billionaires (and some of America's top analysts) LOVE this kind of turmoil... because it's a chance to buy world-class investments for pennies on the dollar. Not to mention, it's a rare opportunity for you to see 700%-plus gains, based on history. By tomorrow, get the full story here. | |
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New 52-week highs (as of 7/7/23): Covenant Logistics (CVLG) and DraftKings (DKNG). In today's mailbag, thoughts on Dan Ferris' Friday Digest... feedback on a comment in Friday's mailbag... and a note on Mike DiBiase's Sunday Masters Series essay... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Dan, Thanks for describing this odd economic situation we're stuck in and the strange market values. The Fed is coming with more rate hikes which is tragic. The first round wiped out the most wealth in history in equities, bonds, and home values. This is potentially bad news for all those who just bought new houses at these higher rates. This inflation definitely has a greed element. I also feel that corporations are passing on the higher interest costs which totally negates what the Fed is trying to accomplish. They implemented 5.5% interest in record time to reduce CPI by roughly 3%! I have a bad feeling the next 3% will be quite ugly. The consumer is nearing the end of credit limits and I don't see wages continuing upward at the recent historic pace." – Subscriber Rodger G. "Your article about investors holding too much of their wealth in stocks would make sense if you indicated the risk of the alternative. If the alternative is the U.S. Dollar, I would think it may be a higher risk than stocks of great companies. The Dollar, in my opinion, may be at significant risk today. Many central banks buying gold and countries dumping U.S. Treasuries. I feel safer owning shares of great companies than certificates backed by nothing other than lying salesmen (AKA politicians). Especially when you see so much insanity in our government today..." – Subscriber Jon J. "The July 7th Digest mentions a 'Zuckerberg bot'. How about for any AI out of Facebook/Meta, just 'Zuckerbot'?" – Subscriber Scott G. "Everyone has heard the phrase, 'calm before the storm'. I get a chuckle as I enjoy the Overture to the William Tell opera. It has four parts: The Dawn, the Storm, the Calm, and the Finale (hi yo silver!). Here the storm precedes the calm." – Subscriber Carl N. All the best, Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
July 10, 2023
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,226.1% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 1,058.3% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data | 10/09/08 | 790.2% | Extreme Value | Ferris | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 02/21/20 | 634.1% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Wade | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 587.7% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | WRB
W.R. Berkley | 03/16/12 | 527.3% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 504.4% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | AFG
American Financial | 10/12/12 | 407.1% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | TTD
The Trade Desk | 10/17/19 | 320.3% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel | FSMEX
Fidelity Sel Med | 09/03/08 | 313.6% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 4 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 2 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel/Wade | | 1 | Extreme Value | Ferris |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Stock | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 1,500.1% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE-USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,071.0% | Crypto Capital | Wade | POLY/USD
Polymath | 05/19/20 | 1,026.3% | Crypto Capital | Wade | MATIC/USD
Polygon | 02/25/21 | 802.6% | Crypto Capital | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 708.2% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 5.96 years | 1,466% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Band Protocol crypto | | 0.32 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra crypto | | 0.41 years | 1,164% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Inovio Pharma.^ | INO | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold^ | SA | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Frontier crypto | | 0.08 years | 978% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin crypto | | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 4.12 years | 777% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Intellia Therapeutics | NTLA | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. | 
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