Triple trouble for Sunak?

The Tories have given up in London

SUBSCRIBE SUBSCRIBE July 20, 2023 View in browser Triple trouble for Rishi? Hello, it's policy correspondent Jon Stone here, standing in for John Rentoul.   If today is the last day of term in Westminster before the summer recess, then it is tempting to see the three by-elections taking place today as Rishi Sunak's end-of-year exams. At the time of writing voting is still taking place, and we don't know the results – but they're unlikely to be particularly happy for the government.    But there is an argument that it would be wrong to characterise these contests as a test for Sunak. After all, we already know from polling and previous election results that the government is very unpopular.   If the Tories do cling on in any of the seats in question, it will most likely be because the opposition failed to cohere around any single candidate – hardly a ringing endorsement of the government. While a Tory hold in any the seats would likely affect the narrative, it would not necessarily be a sign of popularity. Whatever the results, it's important that we don't over-interpret. Quiz question Who wanted to "form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquillity, provide for the common defence, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity"? Answer at the bottom of today's email Daily briefing Treasury chief sacked by Truss ahead of mini-budget disaster gets £335k pay-off Tom Scholar was let go as permanent secretary for representing 'Treasury orthodoxy' RMT and TSSA row over rail strike Mick Lynch hits back at sister union after chief questions whether RMT has abandoned 'strategic thinking' Top Tory apologises for lauding Taliban Tobias Ellwood says he 'got it wrong' after deleting video saying the group has improved Afghanistan Articles driving the biggest conversations Sunak accuses EU of 'regrettable choice of words' in Falklands row Articles available exclusively to subscribers By-election bonanza could bring a record-breaking night of politics What else do you need to know today? Polls close in today's by election at 22.00, with counting expecting to take place overnight into Friday The Commons goes into recess from today until 4 September. The Lords will sit on Friday and return 5 September. Thanks to Adam Forrest and Archie Mitchell for making this newsletter possible Rentoul's reading list   David Cameron on why he got emotional about a new Alzheimer's drug (Premium) James Butler on Keir Starmer's 'radiant ambiguity' Tom Peck on whether a bank has the right to turn down Nigel Farage Morgan Jones speaks to 'parliament's most YIMBY politician' For your summer reading: Show Me The Bodies by Peter Apps, a forensic book about the Grenfell Tower fire    Enjoy a year of unlimited digital access for just £99 £20 ✓ Full access to Premium news analysis ✓ Advert-free reading across web and app ✓ The Independent Daily Edition newspaper ✓ Puzzles, virtual event tickets and more SUBSCRIBE NOW Inside the bubble That is a wrap The House of Commons adjourns about now for the summer recess, which lasts until 4 September. The View from Westminster newsletter is taking a break, returning only if parliament is recalled or in other urgent cases of politics occurring. Thanks to Jon Stone for minding the shop today. John Rentoul will be back after the break.  Many thanks to you for subscribing; we hope you have a good summer.  Quotation of the day "In 2009, young Black men were much more likely to experience imprisonment than college graduation. Ten years later, this trend had reversed, with Black men more likely to graduate college than go to prison." Jason P Robey, Michael Massoglia and Michael T Light, Demography (US) Quiz answer: "We the people of the United States", in the preamble to the Constitution We noticed that you might not be registered By registering, you will enjoy limited access to Independent Premium articles, commenting, and virtual events with our leading journalists REGISTER FOR FREE OTHER NEWSLETTERS YOU MIGHT LIKE Morning Headlines Weekdays, 8am (UK time) Written by the UK team Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now Morning Headlines Weekdays, 8am (UK time) Written by the UK team Join now Health Check Every Thursday, 7am (UK time) Written by Rebecca Thomas Join now The Independent proudly partners with Refuge and the National Domestic Abuse Helpline: 0808 2000 247 News you can trust The Independent has a 100% NewsGuard trust rating FIND OUT MORE If you can spare a minute we'd love your feedback on our newsletters. 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