Friday, November 24, 2023 |
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| To keep you well informed during the upcoming COP 28 Summit, this newsletter will be sent daily between 30th November - 12th December. It will return to its regular schedule from 15th December. Thanks for reading - LB |
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| Workers clean the fresh water lagoon at District One on November 21, 2023 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The global climate summit, Cop28, opens in the city next week (Photo by Andrea DiCenzo/Getty Images) |
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With a week to go until the Cop28 climate summit kicks off in Dubai, the mood is both optimistic, following substantive progress in the past 12 months, and extremely anxious in the face of enormous challenges that are still being tackled too slowly.
Big picture: Currently, there is a "canyon" between the levels of greenhouse gas emissions heating the planet, and the plans in place to cut them, the United Nations reported this week.
This means that the planet is on track for 3 degrees (Celsius) temperature rise this century - a heat bomb that could set off irreversible tipping points, catastrophic weather, and sea-level rise.
In 2023, emissions from burning coal, oil and gas - which need to be cut in half in the next six years - rose 1.2 per cent instead. Oil companies made $200 billion in 2022, and many more billions this year. Governments subsidized the oil industry to the tune of $7 trillion in 2022 and have failed to create policies that do enough to bend the emissions curve down. Some are even pumping the brakes on net-zero goals.
Lack of trust is a major issue for Cop28 because rich countries have repeatedly failed to meet their funding promises for developing nations to help them cope with the worst climate extremes (which they did little to create).
Geopolitical tensions are sky-high with the explosion of the Israel-Hamas war last month and nearly two years of war in Ukraine. Far-right populists with little interest in tackling climate issues are winning elections and on the ascent around the world. Climate misinformation is thriving across social media.
But this isn't the full story, and there are hopeful signs emerging.
The recent meeting between the US and China - the world's largest emitters - has created positive momentum ahead of the conference. Despite tensions on many fronts, the two superpowers signed an agreement saying they would work together on climate. In particular, they pledged to increase efforts to cut methane - a powerful greenhouse gas which, if tackled in the short term, could have a significant impact reining in temperature rise.
What's more, China's overall emissions are projected to peak in 2024, and could enter structural decline, according to the latest analysis, due to its rollout out of renewable energy.
Worldwide, clean energy is already beating fossil fuels on cost, and the gap is expected to widen by 2030 as the tech improves, a recent report found.
The news is spurring many countries to set their sights on tripling renewables by the end of the decade.
Against this backdrop, Cop28 will be like walking a "tightrope", said Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, whose efforts led to the 2015 Paris Agreement.
"The tightrope that we need to walk is to recognize... the dangers of not doing our duty and our responsibility, and at the same time to hold up the proof points of where we actually are moving forward," she said at a briefing on Wednesday.
However she emphasized there can be "absolutely no deviation" from the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C.
She added: "Let's recognize that we're delayed and that we're not on track yet, but that all of this other news in the real economy, and also in the political economy, can actually help us to make up for lost time through exponential progress."
Stuti Mishra and I will be on-the-ground at Cop28 to lead The Independent's coverage with newsletters, features, analysis and videos. You can also follow us @LouiseB_NY and @StutiNMishra
More climate stories this week from The Independent:
Cop28: Who's going and who's not?
Extreme heat was blamed for the death of a 23-year-old fan at Taylor Swift's show in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Friday. It was also the hottest day recorded on the planet, when Earth temporarily breached the milestone temperature of 2C for the first time.
At least 130 people have died in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia following heavy rains that triggered what aid agencies described as flooding seen only once every 100 years.
The carbon emissions of the richest 1 per cent are equal to those of five billion people, or two-thirds of the global population, a new report has found. And these 12 billionaires have the same carbon footprint 'as 2 million homes'.
Delegates linked to the world's biggest fossil fuel companies and trade groups have attended UN-led climate talks at least 7,200 times over the last 20 years, according to analysis.
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| We know it is still possible to make the 1.5 degree limit a reality... It requires tearing out the poisoned root of the climate crisis: fossil fuels. |
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the launch of the UN Environment Programme's Emissions Gap report which found that greenhouse gases continue to rise and we are tracking towards a three-degree world |
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