Opinion Today: What’s next for Iran?

Change may be on the horizon, even if it's not the kind many hoped for.

View in browser|nytimes.com Continue reading the main story March 13, 2024 By Meher Ahmad Staff Editor, Opinion If you've read the headlines coming out of the Middle East in the last four months, you've probably encountered the phrase "Iranian-backed militias." Iranian-backed Houthis, Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Iranian-backed groups in Iraq are at the heart of the escalation of conflict in the region. It's easy to imagine Iran, particularly its theocratic regime, as a monolith. With the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dictating an extremist agenda at home and abroad, Iran's position as an antagonist to the United States and its allies can seem fixed. But there are cracks in the regime, says Arash Azizi, the author of a guest essay on Iran's future we published this week. Khamenei is overseeing an Iran that has been battered by sanctions, divided by the protests against mandatory veiling laws, and isolated internationally because of its support for those militia groups. When the octogenarian Khamenei dies, argues Azizi, the politicians vying to take his place will dismantle some — or even all — of the Islamic Republic's cornerstone policies. On the heels of a recent election, the first since the 2022-23 mass protests and the war in Gaza, Azizi provides in-depth insight into Iran's next cadre of leaders. Many of them come from a military background, turning to politics after serving in the influential Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Despite their hard-line rhetoric, Azizi sees these politicians as technocrats first and foremost, interested more in opening Iran to trade, reviving the economy and improving infrastructure than they are in the ideals of the Islamic Revolution. If Azizi is right, it could signal a different Iran on our horizon, one that more resembles Pakistan and Algeria with their pragmatic military authoritarianism than the theocratic rule of Khamenei. It could even, Azizi writes, lead to the easing of certain more repressive laws and to a degree of freedom of speech. Either way, the crisis in the Middle East warrants a closer look at the inner workings of Iran's leadership, and its future. Read the guest essay: Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times Guest Essay Change Is Coming to Iran, Just Not the Change We Hoped For The next generation of the country's leaders want authority, not theocracy. By Arash Azizi Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Here's what we're focusing on today: Editors' Picks Zeynep Tufekci Kate Middleton's Story Is About So Much More Than Kate Middleton The scandal is another blatant display of royal double standards. By Zeynep Tufekci More From Opinion Guest Essay Gabriel García Márquez Did Not Want His Final Book Published. But Should That Really Be the End of the Story? We all benefit when works by great artists that are marked for destruction are instead preserved. By Álvaro Santana-Acuña Thomas L. 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By Paul Krugman letters How Education and Experience Can Help Prisoners Achieve Parole Responses to a guest essay about the plight of the older incarcerated. Also: Close call on Jan. 6; the killing of innocents; the purpose of college. We hope you've enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. Subscribe to The New York Times. Games Here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle and Spelling Bee. If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here. Continue reading the main story ADVERTISEMENT Forward this newsletter to friends to share ideas and perspectives that will help inform their lives. They can sign up here. Do you have feedback? Email us at opiniontoday@nytimes.com. If you have questions about your Times account, delivery problems or other issues, visit our Help Page or contact The Times. Continue reading the main story Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. 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