| You know something is a big deal when Oprah Winfrey goes prime time on it... Just last month, the billionaire talk show host devoted an hour-long ABC News special to the rise of a new class of weight-loss drugs and their astounding ability to treat obesity. That one word - treat - is telling here. That's because a major theme of the special was how perceptions of obesity are radically changing. Obesity is no longer considered a result of overeating, not exercising or not practicing willpower. Instead, it's viewed as a disease - like cancer - and one that can now be effectively treated. Oprah was once a proponent of portion control and exercise to treat obesity. (She was an ambassador for WeightWatchers for almost a decade but left just before this prime-time special.) But like many people, Oprah now believes that obesity, in her words, "is a disease, and it's in the brain." Obesity is more than just a disease, however. It's an epidemic, and a global one. About 4 in 10 Americans are obese (almost 8% severely so), and 1 in 8 people on the planet are obese, according to the World Health Organization. (Obesity is defined as having a body mass index of 30 or higher.) In the United States, obesity is second only to smoking as the leading cause of preventable death. It is linked to multiple health risks, including Type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, some forms of cancer and sleep apnea, among others. And those conditions don't even touch on the trauma or emotional pain that can result from being obese. Until recently, the main treatment for obesity was lifestyle changes, primarily diet and exercise. But the data indicates those haven't worked well. Obesity prevalence in the U.S. increased from 30.5% in 2000 to 42% in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Severe obesity increased from 4.7% to 9.2% over those two decades. According to the National Institutes of Health, the obesity epidemic began in the U.S. in the late 1970s and spread rapidly to other Western nations. And now, as developing nations become wealthier, they too are catching the obesity disease. Worldwide adult obesity has more than doubled since 1990, and adolescent obesity has quadrupled. A New Way to Treat Obesity In recent years, highly innovative treatments have emerged that are safe and effective. It started almost 40 years ago... when researchers found that a hormone called glucagon-like peptide-1, or GLP-1, is released in the gut after food intake. This "incretin hormone" boosts insulin levels and reduces appetite. In its natural form, it lasts only a few minutes in the blood. Pharmaceutical innovators then developed injectable products for diabetes that mimic the effects of GLP-1 and last longer. And they work extremely well - both to treat diabetes and to spur weight loss. They work so well that they are expected to create headwinds for food and beverage makers in the coming years, as the drugs alter appetites and reduce calorie intake. The market for anti-obesity drugs is soaring. It hit $6 billion in 2023. And Goldman Sachs estimates it will grow to 16 times that by 2030, to about $100 billion, with 1 in 8 Americans - about 15 million people - taking an anti-obesity medication. That's exactly why we hold a particular stock in our Oxford Trading Portfolio - one that's up 156% since Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green originally recommended it in October 2022. The upside for obesity treatments is difficult to overestimate at this point. And this is a medical breakthrough every smart investor should have a stake in. If you're already a subscriber to The Oxford Communiqué, we just covered the company in the Portfolio Review section of the May 2024 issue. For those of you who are interested in joining Alex's flagship newsletter, go here for details on the publication and what it has to offer. Good investing, Matt | 
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