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2024/05/29

The Case for Gold Today

A down day for (most) stocks... Yields were up... The magnificent one and the rest... The 'magazine cover indicator' (again)... Gold has done its job... Is $4,000 per ounce next?... The bullish case...
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A down day for (most) stocks... Yields were up... The magnificent one and the rest... The 'magazine cover indicator' (again)... Gold has done its job... Is $4,000 per ounce next?... The bullish case...


The volatility arrived early...

Yesterday, I (Corey McLaughlin) warned to expect some volatility in the market later this week. That's when another round of GDP and inflation data is due out. Well, the volatility arrived a day or two earlier than I suspected...

The major U.S. indexes all moved lower today, with the small-cap Russell 2000 Index down the most at 1.5%. The benchmark S&P 500 Index has traded slightly lower since making a new all-time closing high last week. It was down 0.6% today.

The catalyst appeared to be bond yields moving higher...

Today, the 10-year Treasury yield moved to 4.61%, back to where it was around the start of the month and reflecting a general trend. The five-year yield is now close to 4.64% after a reported weak auction of five-year Treasury notes.

Tomorrow morning, a "revised" GDP number for the first quarter will also come out. And on Friday, the April update for the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge – the personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") price index – could change investors' expectations for monetary policy moving ahead.

Stronger inflation numbers than expected could put pressure on stock and bond prices, but weaker numbers or even data in line with expectations could be bullish, since it would keep the status-quo idea of the Fed cutting rates later this year in place.

As our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond wrote today, "We'll see if bonds hold up through the barrage of inflation numbers coming out in the next few days." That could go for stocks, too.

In short, after a run of headline earnings reports, uncertainty around the path of inflation and interest rates is at the forefront of investors' minds again. So don't be surprised if the markets experience more volatility.

The magnificent one... and the rest...

While almost 450 of the S&P 500 stocks finished in the red today, chipmaker and AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) was up less than 1%. A few other popular growth names like Netflix (NFLX) and Apple (AAPL) were also up modestly.

It's a similar story to what we saw last week, when Nvidia was up nearly 10% the day after its latest blockbuster earnings report, and the major U.S. indexes were down. So this trend could be worth keeping an eye on...

Another example of the 'magazine cover indicator'...

Regular Digest readers are familiar with the magazine cover indicator.

Whenever a subject, theme, or stock hits the cover of a mainstream financial news outlet or magazine, it usually means sentiment around that thing has hit an extreme... either bullish or bearish.

So it's probably wisest to take the opposite action than what that cover is suggesting. As Stansberry Research senior analyst Brett Eversole shared yesterday in an issue of the free Health & Wealth Bulletin...

By the time the mainstream financial press covers a big story, the trend is closer to the end than the beginning. Once everyone is finally talking about an idea – and no one is left to buy – it shows us a reversal is likely.

This is especially true when the headlines say an asset is about to stop doing what it has always done. Those claims have a history of being dead wrong.

Remember when FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried landed on the cover of Fortune in August 2022 with the headline "The Next Warren Buffett?" He wasn't. His cryptocurrency exchange got caught up in a major scandal three months later.

Another example? Here's a Bloomberg headline Brett saw last summer...

That's quite a claim. It came amid investor frustration that the metal wasn't soaring in value given the pace of inflation.

These were the facts...

But gold did rise to new highs in the summer of 2020 in advance of 40-year-high inflation. It rose again to around those same highs in the spring of 2022 after Russia went to war in Ukraine, which I would certainly count as "bad times."

Around that same time, as interest rates soared from the Fed's efforts to "fight" inflation, gold did what it was supposed to do if you believe in it as a hedge versus stocks, bonds, and other assets. As Brett writes...

From January 2022 to last year's October lows, stocks and bonds both suffered – while gold quietly did its job. Take a look...

Gold might not have soared the way investors expected [given inflation]. But it was the perfect crisis hedge. The metal did a darn good job of protecting investors since the pain began in early 2022.

We've seen stronger performance since then, too. Heck, the metal continues to hit new all-time highs.

In the meantime, we're still looking for a confirmation of a bottom in Treasurys, which many people have looked to as a hedge against the downside in stocks. But that didn't work out this last bear market. As interest rates rose, bond prices fell along with stocks.

This behavior caught many investors off-guard after decades of steadily declining rates and relatively lower inflation, though it shouldn't have surprised our readers, as we wrote in 2021 about this likely situation – bonds and stocks falling – unfolding before it happened.

The case for gold today...

As we explained yesterday, Brett and gold-research icon John Doody believe that the recent rally in gold is the start of something much larger... with inflation sticking around, the Fed bent on cutting interest rates, and geopolitical tensions mounting.

As Brett wrote in a new special report, available to Stansberry Alliance members and True Wealth Systems subscribers here...

Gold is in a raging bull market. But nobody seems to care...

A few months ago, the metal finally topped $2,000 an ounce – a level it has struggled to break through for years.

Gold has catapulted above $2,400 since then. All told, it has soared as much as 33% from its low last October.

The crazy part is, retail investors aren't interested. Instead, this gold boom is an insider's rally...

Central banks worldwide have driven the run-up so far. They bought nearly 1,100 tonnes of gold in 2022 – the most ever in a single year. Purchases surpassed 1,000 tonnes in 2023 as well.

You don't often find investor apathy in the middle of a boom. And you definitely don't find it when insiders are buying at the fastest pace on record. Yet that's exactly what's happening today.

This situation will play out the way it always does... with the mom-and-pop crowd clamoring to buy only after savvy investors have made the easy money. And that means the current gold boom is only in its infancy...

Brett and John share more details in a brand-new free presentation, including why gold could soon soar to $4,000 and why many gold stocks are extremely undervalued today, which offers a tremendous buying opportunity. They also share the ticker symbol of one gold stock just for tuning in. Check it all out here. And if you're a Stansberry Alliance member or True Wealth Systems subscriber, you can find Brett's full research here.

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and I talk with Chris DeMuth Jr. of Rangeley Capital, an "event driven" hedge fund. Chris offers insight into his investing strategy, the names of a few businesses that intrigue him today, and how it's possible to essentially buy some small banks for free right now...

Click here to watch the interview now... and to hear the full audio version of this week's Stansberry Investor Hour (in which Dan and I talk about Nvidia and the bifurcation between the stock market and the economy), visit InvestorHour.com or find the show wherever you listen to your podcasts.


Recommended Links:

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Central banks and many of the world's financial elite are piling into gold. And now a renowned precious metals expert is stepping forward with his No. 1 recommendation for readers: "Today, I'll show you the best possible way to play the current surge in gold." Click here for this major gold story.


MAJOR BUY SIGNAL: Move Fast, Washington...

His system has found stocks that soared 1,174%, 2,123%, and 11,422%. But one investment he just uncovered in Washington, D.C., could be his biggest discovery yet. It involves President Biden, Nancy Pelosi, trillions of dollars – and the biggest economic shift since 1958. See for yourself.


New 52-week highs (as of 5/28/24): ABB (ABBNY), Applied Materials (AMAT), Arhaus (ARHS), Cameco (CCJ), Constellation Energy (CEG), Costco Wholesale (COST), Crocs (CROX), Dell Technologies (DELL), Denison Mines (DNN), Enstar (ESGR), Micron Technology (MU), Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund (NBXG), ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD), RadNet (RDNT), VanEck Semiconductor Fund (SMH), Teradyne (TER), ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD), and Vistra (VST).

In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's edition... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Today's [Digest] included a thank you to veterans in conjunction with Memorial Day. As a veteran, I appreciate the thank you, but Memorial Day is to remember and honor all those who never became veterans because they died fighting for our country and its ideals." – Subscriber Phill H.

Corey McLaughlin comment: Phill, I appreciate your feedback and your service. You're totally right, of course. I mentioned veterans yesterday with the intention of saying I'm also grateful for all those who've served, but I should have been clearer about what Memorial Day is all about – honoring and remembering those who made the ultimate sacrifice. Thank you.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
May 29, 2024


Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations

Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios

Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst
MSFT
Microsoft
11/11/10 1,392.2% Retirement Millionaire Doc
MSFT
Microsoft
02/10/12 1,370.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
ADP
Automatic Data Processing
10/09/08 883.9% Extreme Value Ferris
WRB
W.R. Berkley
03/16/12 716.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway
04/01/09 616.1% Retirement Millionaire Doc
HSY
Hershey
12/07/07 488.5% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
AFG
American Financial
10/12/12 443.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter
TT
Trane Technologies
04/12/18 424.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc
NVO
Novo Nordisk
12/05/19 384.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula
TTD
The Trade Desk
10/17/19 368.1% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Top 10 Totals
5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula
3 Retirement Millionaire Doc
1 Extreme Value Ferris
1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel

Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations

Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio

Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst
wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum
12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade
BTC/USD
Bitcoin
11/27/18 1,717.7% Crypto Capital Wade
ONE/USD
Harmony
12/16/19 1,266.9% Crypto Capital Wade
MATIC/USD
Polygon
02/25/21 817.5% Crypto Capital Wade
AGI/USD
Delysium AI
01/16/24 425.8% Crypto Capital Wade

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.


Stansberry Research Hall of Fame

Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios

Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst
Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc
Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud
Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root
Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams
PNC Warrants PNC-WS 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud
Maxar Technologies^ MAXR 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet
Silvergate Capital SI 1.95 years 681% Amer. Moonshots Root

^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.


Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame

Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio

Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst
Band Protocol BAND/USD 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade
Terra LUNA/USD 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade
Polymesh POLYX/USD 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade
Frontier FRONT/USD 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade
Binance Coin BNB/USD 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade

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