The Morning: Ukraine’s surprise attack

Plus, the Musk and Trump interview, Gaza cease-fire talks and Sweden's tech industry.

View in browser|nytimes.com August 13, 2024 By German Lopez Good morning. We're covering Ukraine's incursion into Russia — plus the Musk and Trump interview, Gaza cease-fire talks and Sweden's tech industry. Ukrainian men carrying a dead Russian soldier in Sudzha, Russia. David Guttenfelder for The New York Times On Russian soil Ukraine's efforts to retake territory from Russia have stalled. But the Ukrainian military has tried to get back at Moscow in other ways. In the past, it has launched drone attacks in Russia and backed hit-and-run incursions in which Russian exiles struck targets inside their former homeland. Last week, Ukraine tried something new. Its own forces marched miles across the Russian border in a surprise operation. They now control some Russian land in the region of Kursk, including dozens of towns and villages. "It's an attempt to give Russia somewhat of a shock," my colleague Eric Schmitt, who covers national security, told me. "It could give Ukraine a win, or at least make them feel good for a few days. Does it change the larger calculus on the battlefield? That remains to be seen." Ukraine's leaders are seeking to galvanize support at home and abroad for its war effort. An assault on Russian soil might not get Ukraine closer to seizing all of the land it has lost, but it shows that Ukraine can still surprise — and embarrass — its enemy. Today's newsletter explains why Ukraine is trying a new tactic two years into a stalemate with Russia. Potential upside What does Ukraine stand to gain from its latest attack? Analysts and officials have pointed to a few possibilities: Ukraine wants to divert Russian troops from strategic locations. If the Kremlin moves soldiers from battlefields in northeastern, eastern or southern Ukraine to defend itself at home, Ukraine might have an easier time retaking its own land. Russia currently controls about 20 percent of Ukraine, and Ukrainian leaders say they want to retake all of it. Morale at home has declined. Ukraine's last big counteroffensive success came in the fall of 2022, when its military retook the northeastern region of Kharkiv. Meanwhile, soldiers continue to die, and civilians endure regular bombardments. Russia has taken bits of land in Ukraine's east and northeast. The economy remains weak. A major strike could help rebuild domestic confidence in the war effort. Ukraine wants to shore up support abroad. Kyiv has relied on aid from Western nations to defend itself. But voters in those countries are no longer as enthusiastic about supplying Ukraine with weapons. Some leaders, including Donald Trump, have suggested they want to cut off the aid. A battlefield victory against Russia, even if it's not strategically important, could get skittish supporters back on board. Ukraine wants to convince Washington that it can strike within Russia. American officials have barred Ukraine from using U.S.-made weapons to strike too deep into Russian territory. They worry that such an attack could lead Russia to act more recklessly. But if the current incursion doesn't lead to an escalation, American officials may allow future Ukrainian salvos farther across the border. Will any of this work? Some analysts are skeptical. Russia's military drastically outnumbers Ukraine's. Moscow still has reserves of conscripts that it has not deployed in the war, so it might not need to divert troops from strategic locations to reinforce its borders. And the intended audience for this new move — in Ukraine and abroad — may not see much value if it doesn't help Ukraine win back its territory. Planning ahead At the Sudzha border post. David Guttenfelder for The New York Times Ukraine might also hope to use holdings in Kursk as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations, to trade for land previously seized by Russia. To do that, Ukraine would have to actually keep what it takes. Given how overburdened its military is already, that may not be possible. And if Ukraine suffered heavy losses trying to hold foreign terrain, the incursion would amount to a disaster. "It's a huge gamble on the part of the Ukrainians," Eric said. But Ukraine also has to plan for eventual negotiations with Russia. Trump has suggested that if he wins this year's election, he will force Ukraine to work out a peace deal with Russia. That would likely require Ukraine to give up most or all of the territory that Russia currently holds. Ukraine desperately wants to avoid that scenario. To do so, it needs something that Russia will want enough to make concessions. More on the war Vladimir Putin criticized the West over Ukraine's incursion, a sign that the attack has unsettled Russia even as Putin insists that it will not change his negotiating position. Ukraine planned the attack surreptitiously, disguising troop movements as training exercises. Senior officers learned of the offensive just days before it began. It is the biggest foreign incursion into Russia since World War II. "I'm happy to be riding a tank into Russia, and it is better than them driving tanks into our country," a Ukrainian soldier told The Times. China and Russia are stepping up cooperation between their militaries, and holding joint exercises near Alaska and Taiwan in defiance of the U.S. and its allies. THE LATEST NEWS Musk and Trump Interview Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago taking part in an online discussion with Elon Musk. Margo Martin/X, via Reuters Elon Musk, who has endorsed Trump, interviewed the candidate live on X. Glitches delayed the event by around 40 minutes; Musk blamed a cyberattack. Trump complained about President Biden's exit from the race, calling Kamala Harris's nomination "a coup" and repeating familiar falsehoods. Read a fact check. During the more than two-hour discussion, Musk offered frequent praise. "You can actually have a conversation with you," Musk told Trump. "And you can't have a conversation with Biden or Kamala." Earlier in the day, Trump made his first posts on X in almost a year. The platform banned him after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, but Musk reinstated his account after buying the company. More on the 2024 Election The F.B.I. is investigating an apparent hack of the Trump campaign, days after the former president said Iran had launched a cyberattack. A law enforcement official said investigators were also looking into an attempt to infiltrate accounts associated with the Democrats' presidential campaign. A judge ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could not appear on New York's ballot because he had used a "sham" address to maintain his New York residency. Kennedy vowed to appeal. As president, Trump tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Now, he and other Republicans claim they want to improve it. Trump claimed without evidence that Harris's campaign used A.I. to generate or doctor an image of a crowd of supporters at a rally. In fact, thousands were there. In November, Arizonans will vote on a ballot initiative to make abortion a protected right under the state Constitution, The A.P. reports. Trump Shooting Representative Mike Kelly, a Pennsylvania Republican, was in the crowd when a would-be assassin opened fire on Trump. He's now leading a bipartisan task force that will help investigate the shooting. The task force's top Democrat is Jason Crow, a veteran who was a manager in the first Trump impeachment trial. Middle East Benjamin Netanyahu Pool photo by Naama Grynbaum Benjamin Netanyahu has added new conditions to Israel's demands in Gaza cease-fire talks, documents show. Israeli negotiators worry it could impede a deal. Netanyahu criticized his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, after Israeli news media reported that Gallant had called Netanyahu's goal of total victory over Hamas "nonsense." Nearly two weeks have passed since Iran vowed to attack Israel over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran. Here's where the conflict stands. More International News Managing traffic in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Atul Loke for The New York Times The student protesters who toppled Bangladesh's leader are now trying to restore order, taking up positions as cabinet ministers and traffic cops. Pakistan's military arrested a former spy chief, accusing him of political meddling and corruption. The arrest is seen as part of a crackdown on allies of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Sweden's tech industry is strong, thanks in part to Spotify, Skype and Candy Crush. It could be a model for other European nations. Other Big Stories The U.S. is processing citizenship requests at the fastest clip in a decade, reducing a backlog that built up during the Trump administration and the pandemic. A Colorado jury convicted a former county clerk of tampering with voting machines in a failed attempt to prove Trump's false fraud claims about the 2020 election. Two polar bears killed a worker at a remote radar station in Canada. A 4.4-magnitude earthquake hit an area near Los Angeles. A seismologist described it as "a decent shake, though not huge." Opinions Voters are starting to trust Harris on the economy not because it's improving, but because Trump hasn't connected her with Biden's policies, Kristen Soltis Anderson writes. (Anderson assesses the latest polls each Tuesday in the Opinion Today newsletter. Sign up here to get it in your inbox.) If Russia wins the war in Ukraine, the U.S., which failed to protect its allies, will be the biggest loser, Anastasia Edel writes. Here are columns by Paul Krugman on calling Harris a communist and Michelle Goldberg on election lies. Subscribe Today The Morning highlights a small portion of the journalism that The New York Times offers. To access all of it, become a subscriber with this introductory offer. MORNING READS In Torrevieja, Spain. Emilio Parra Doiztua for The New York Times Spain is thirsty: The nation, like other dry countries, is increasingly reliant on desalination plants for its water needs. Harris' or Harris's? The Harris-Walz ticket has grammar geeks in overdrive. Germany: The State of Berlin owns a villa that once belonged to a Nazi propaganda minister. No one quite knows what to do with it. Ask Well: Can stress actually turn your hair gray? Lives Lived: Paul Bucha was an Army captain who earned a Medal of Honor after saving fellow soldiers during the Vietnam War. Bucha later played a role in the presidential bids of Ross Perot, George H.W. Bush and Barack Obama. He died at 80. SPORTS Gymnastics: The court that overturned Jordan Chiles's Olympic bronze-medal score in floor exercise said it would not reopen the case after a request from U.S.A. Gymnastics. N.F.L.: The New York Jets defensive end Haason Reddick requested a trade just months after being dealt to the franchise. ARTS AND IDEAS In Chicago.  Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times Chicago is debuting new public art throughout the city ahead of next week's Democratic convention. As part of the effort, the city has created a sort of moving mural — elevated trains covered in works by emerging artists, all of which explore themes of democracy. "It's all democracy related and fabulous," said Bob Faust, the project's curator. Read more about it. More on culture Twenty-five years after the Grammy-winning album that reshaped Shelby Lynne's career, she has unlocked a new creative groove. People are speculating online about a feud between Blake Lively, who stars in and produced the film "It Ends With Us," and Justin Baldoni, her co-star and the movie's director, The Cut reports. Rachael Lillis, an actress who voiced Misty and Jessie on the 1990s "Pokémon" TV series, died at 55. Jon Stewart discussed Trump's comments about Harris's crowd sizes on "The Daily Show." THE MORNING RECOMMENDS … Yossy Arefi for The New York Times (Photography and Styling Make a bright and herbaceous macaroni salad. Read these books after you've watched "It Ends With Us." Grill ultrathin smash burgers with this tool. Wash your bras the right way. GAMES Here is today's Spelling Bee. Note: Yesterday's newsletter mistakenly included the wrong Spelling Bee image. You can play the correct Monday puzzle here. And here are today's Mini Crossword, Wordle, Sudoku, Connections and Strands. Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. —German P.S. The Times's editorial board, which operates independently of the newsroom, will no longer make endorsements in New York races. The board will continue to endorse presidential candidates. Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. Reach our team at themorning@nytimes.com. Editor: David Leonhardt Deputy Editor: Adam B. Kushner News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Sean Kawasaki-Culligan, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Ashley Wu News Assistant: Lyna Bentahar Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch Need help? Review our newsletter help page or contact us for assistance. You received this email because you signed up for the Morning newsletter from The New York Times, or as part of your New York Times account. To stop receiving The Morning, unsubscribe. To opt out of other promotional emails from The Times, including those regarding The Athletic, manage your email settings. 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