Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Top Stories
Silver Bust?
The silver market has seen insane volatility over the past week, with the metal jumping 10% before retracing the move in a violent dip. As we write, silver is trading down ~7% at $72.19 / oz. Polymarket traders expect a recovery to above $80 by end of January 2026.
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Bank Failure?
The second prong of the rumors are that the silver trade has caused a major bank or trading desk to blow up. Odds for a U.S. bank failure in 2026 spiked as much as 60% this morning before retracing violently.The potentially busted banks are not FDIC-insured, which is the resolution source for this polymarket.
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Panic Button
Another way to gauge stress in the market is in the odds for a NYSE market-wide circuit breaker in 2026. These trading halts are triggered by a 7% or greater intraday drop in the S&P 500 index. This polymarket has been particularly volatile in December, seeing jumps of 10% or more.
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Breaking News
Odds
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027?
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22%
-15%
Will the RSF capture Kadugli by January 31?
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20%
-2%
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?
