More First Brands Bankruptcy Fallout?
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter. How a $50 billion fraud hiding behind Fram filters and Raybestos brakes just vaporized Wall Street's smartest money — and where savvy investors can profit from the wreckage of First Brands Group. Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!
Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. — — —
Elliott Wave Market Structure: Identifying Five‑Wave Impulse Patterns and ABC Corrections
There's a moment in every wave count where things get a little messy — and how you read that mess determines whether you're positioned for the right move or caught on the wrong side.
I've been working through a structure on the S&P 500 (SPY) that's been giving me pause, and I want to walk you through exactly what I'm seeing. The difference between a five‑wave impulse and an ABC correction isn't just academic — it completely changes what happens next.
The initial drop wasn't very clear, but the retrace looked very A‑ish. I placed the A‑B based on the structure I was seeing — one move, another move, and then one, two, three, four overlaps and five for the C.
 When it fits, it ships. That's Occam's razor at work — the simplest explanation tends to be the right one.
From the origin point, I'm looking at a potential one, two structure. That drop was vicious. It showed a three, then the overnight action potentially formed a four with one, two, three, four, five. That's the wave count I'm tracking right now.
At the same time, the broader backdrop has shifted in ways that matter. Something changed in the commodity landscape — almost like a glitch in the matrix that threw the usual relationships off balance.
We're not in Kansas anymore, and that kind of systemic shift tends to ripple through equities, sentiment and even how certain waves unfold.
Why This Wave Count Has Me Concerned
Here's the thing that makes me uneasy about this structure…
Corrections don't take place in five‑wave moves. So what does that leave us with? Either this is a wave one and we do a correction for wave two, or this is an A and we do a correction for a B.
Either way you slice it, the next move would be down after we complete a correction.
Now, it doesn't have to play out that way. If we don't make a lower low here, this could be an ABC — just a weird one, two structure — and we go higher. If we stay above this bottom into today, the downside's probably done. This could be an ABC, not a one, two, three.
The enthusiasm on the downside looks a lot like a three. Could be a C. But what has me most cautious is the way wave four came up without overlapping. If we complete a five down, that sets up a rally back to the wave four region, which is consistent with a B or a two — doesn't matter which — before continuation lower.
Volatility is also playing its role here. The VIX doesn't tend to trend — it spikes, then collapses back to baseline. We've essentially seen a double spike, and those kinds of moves usually mark emotional extremes rather than the start of a sustained volatility regime.
When you get this pattern of sharp spikes and quick resets, it often aligns with corrective environments rather than clean impulsive expansions, which reinforces the caution in this wave setup.
The Critical Difference Between C‑Waves and Third Waves
At that point, here's the difference that matters for your trading: If this is a C‑wave, we typically stop at a certain level. If it's a three, we'll generally push further, then bounce, then flush again.
Whether it's an A‑B or a one‑two structure, the implication is similar in the near term — we're likely looking at another leg down after a correction completes. The longer‑term implications differ, but right now the tactical read is what matters.
This is also why I'm keeping an eye on where capital is flowing within equities. In an environment shaped by structural shifts in commodities and intermittent volatility spikes, leadership matters. I'm leaning toward being long the AI adopters over the AI spenders — the companies using the technology efficiently rather than the ones burning cash to build it.
In markets like this, discipline and leverage tend to separate winners from laggards.
The market is tipping its hand — slowly, messily, but clearly enough if you're watching the structure. That's why wave analysis remains my compass. Not because it predicts everything, but because it forces you to understand what each scenario means for price action before it unfolds.
Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!
I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!
And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page! _____________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________ Dark Pools Now See More Trading Volume Than Regular Exchanges
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They’re not options, in fact they’re much simpler to buy and sell, and there’s no time decay — and they move just like options. 
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_____________________________________________________ Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Neogen (NEOG)
 This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. - NEOG is a new potential entry. Target: 6.92 Stop below: 4.37
- NEOG has a historical win rate of 91.67%
- NEOG has a profit factor of 2.493
- NEOG trades last 58 trading days on average over 24 trades since 1989.
See the secret behind these signals here!
This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. How the Daily Chart Setup Works Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers: 1 .The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap line.
2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months.
3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry.
I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!
You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places! _____________________________________________________ Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. |
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